Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
April 30, 2026 02:30
Carlos Miguel
72'
(og)
33'
(ast. Allan Elias)
J. Arias
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cerro Porteno a 43% win probability (draw 28%, Palmeiras 27%). The final result was Cerro Porteno 1–1 Palmeiras. In 3 previous meetings, Cerro Porteno have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Palmeiras.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.49
Actual xG
2.77
5
Saves
3
34%
Possession
66%
3
Corners
5
25
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
20'
Allan Elias
33'
ast. Allan Elias ·
J. Arias⚽
W. Viera
/ M. Klimowicz
46'
R. Gomez
/ J. Iturbe
68'
⚽Carlos Miguel
(og)
72'
J. Torres
/ F. Peralta
77'
79'
Mauricio
/
R. Sosa
84'
Lucas Evangelista
/
J. Arias
84'
Khellven
/
A. Giay
88'
Jefte
/
Arthur Gabriel
88'
Felipe Anderson
/
Allan Elias
F. Dominguez
/ C. Bobadilla
90'+2
L. A. Quintana Rodriguez
/ R. Melgarejo
90'+2
J. Iturbe
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
43.98%
Cerro
28.69%
X ←
27.33%
Palmeiras
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
28.69%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.32
0.49
-0.83
0.84
2.77
+1.93
Palmeiras dominated by xG (2.77 vs 0.49).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Alexis Martín Arias
G
35
Marcelo Chaparro
D
Marcelo Chaparro
D
22
M. Pérez
D
M. Pérez
D
23
Gustavo Velázquez
D
Gustavo Velázquez
D
14
Lucas Quintana
D
Lucas Quintana
D
33
Rodrigo Gómez
68'
D
Rodrigo Gómez
68'
D
20
Wílder Viera
45'
M
Wílder Viera
45'
M
5
J. Morel
M
J. Morel
M
2
Fabricio Domínguez
M
Fabricio Domínguez
M
19
P. Vegetti
F
P. Vegetti
F
27
Jonatan Torres
77'
F
Jonatan Torres
77'
F
Bench
28
Carlos Franco
F
Carlos Franco
F
32
Cesar Bobadilla
3'
M
Cesar Bobadilla
3'
M
8
Cristhian Paredes
M
Cristhian Paredes
M
24
Edgar Raul Paez Torales
F
Edgar Raul Paez Torales
F
16
Fabrizio Peralta
18'
M
Fabrizio Peralta
18'
M
13
Guillermo Benitez
D
Guillermo Benitez
D
11
Juan Iturbe
27'
F
Juan Iturbe
27'
F
40
Mateo Klimowicz
50'
M
Mateo Klimowicz
50'
M
1
Carlos Miguel
1 ⚽
G
Carlos Miguel
1 ⚽
G
56
Arthur
88'
D
Arthur
88'
D
26
Murilo
D
Murilo
D
15
G. Gómez
D
G. Gómez
D
4
A. Giay
84'
D
A. Giay
84'
D
8
Andreas Pereira
M
Andreas Pereira
M
17
Marlon Freitas
M
Marlon Freitas
M
11
J. Arias
1 ⚽
84'
M
J. Arias
1 ⚽
84'
M
40
Allan
1 👟
88'
M
Allan
1 👟
88'
M
19
R. Sosa
79'
F
R. Sosa
79'
F
42
J. López
F
J. López
F
Bench
7
Felipe Anderson
7'
M
Felipe Anderson
7'
M
6
Jefté
7'
D
Jefté
7'
D
12
Khellven
11'
D
Khellven
11'
D
30
Lucas Evangelista
11'
M
Lucas Evangelista
11'
M
31
Luighi Hanri
F
Luighi Hanri
F
50
Luis Felipe
M
Luis Felipe
M
18
Maurício
16'
M
Maurício
16'
M
Best on the pitch
Alexis Martín Arias
G · Cerro
9.20
· 22 pass
Allan
M · Palmeiras
7.90
1 👟
1 shots
· 17 pass
Fabricio Domínguez
M · Cerro
7.30
· 22 pass
Murilo
D · Palmeiras
7.30
1 shots
· 92 pass
Carlos Miguel
G · Palmeiras
7.30
1 ⚽
· 22 pass
J. López
F · Palmeiras
7.20
3 shots
· 24 pass
Cerro Porteno — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Martín Arias | G | 95 | 9.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Chaparro | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Pérez | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Velázquez | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Quintana | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Gómez | D | 68 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Wílder Viera | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Morel | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 41 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Fabricio Domínguez | M | 92 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 15% | 5 | — | — |
| P. Vegetti | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Jonatan Torres | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Cesar Bobadilla | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrizio Peralta | M | 18 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Iturbe | F | 27 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Mateo Klimowicz | M | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
Palmeiras — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Miguel | G | 95 | 7.30 | 1 | — | — | 22 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 55 | 45% | 5 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 92 | 85% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Gómez | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 80 | 71% | — | — | — |
| A. Giay | D | 84 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 71 | 60% | — | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 86 | 76% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Arias | M | 84 | 6.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 88 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 17 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 17% | — | — | — |
| J. López | F | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 24 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 11 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
The final score was Cerro Porteno 1–1 Palmeiras.
What did the model predict before Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras?
The model assigned 43% probability to a Cerro Porteno win, 28% to a draw, and 27% to an Palmeiras win.