MLS
· Regular Season - 10
April 25, 2026 20:30
P. Owusu
(ast. M. Longstaff)
18'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave CF Montreal a 39% win probability (draw 26%, New York City FC 33%). The final result was CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FC.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
2
0.95
Actual xG
0.43
2
Saves
3
36%
Possession
64%
3
Corners
1
14
Tackles
14
5
🟨 Yellow cards
4
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽P. Owusu
· ast. M. Longstaff
18'
N. Streit
/ O. Escobar
46'
S. Piette
63'
65'
Raul Gustavo
/
K. Parks
65'
S. Reid
/
A. Ojeda
65'
Talles Magno
/
A. Farnos
S. Piette
/ F. Herbers
70'
74'
T. Gray
P. Owusu
/ D. Rios
75'
77'
T. Gray
77'
T. Gray
O. Escobar
81'
81'
N. Mercau
82'
A. Perea
/
M. Moralez
B. Vera
84'
J. Neal
/ E. Morales
87'
M. Longstaff
87'
D. Bugaj
88'
90'+1
K. Trewin
Pre-match prediction
39.96%
CF ←
26.4%
X
33.64%
New
we assigned to the actual result (CF Montreal)
39.96%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.19
0.95
-1.24
1.85
0.43
-1.42
CF Montreal dominated by xG (0.95 vs 0.43).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
T. Gillier
G
T. Gillier
G
13
D
4
B. Vera
D
B. Vera
D
2
J. Neal
87'
D
J. Neal
87'
D
27
D. Bugaj
D
D. Bugaj
D
8
M. Longstaff
1 👟
M
M. Longstaff
1 👟
M
6
Samuel Piette
70'
M
Samuel Piette
70'
M
22
V. Loturi
M
V. Loturi
M
10
Iván Jaime
F
Iván Jaime
F
9
P. Owusu
1 ⚽
75'
F
P. Owusu
1 ⚽
75'
F
23
Noah Streit
45'
F
Noah Streit
45'
F
Bench
5
B. Craig
D
B. Craig
D
17
D. Þórhallsson
M
D. Þórhallsson
M
24
Efraín Morales
10'
D
21
F. Herbers
20'
F
F. Herbers
20'
F
7
K. Opoku
F
K. Opoku
F
29
O. Escobar
45'
F
O. Escobar
45'
F
49
G
22
D
5
Kai Trewin
D
Kai Trewin
D
13
Thiago Martins
D
Thiago Martins
D
24
T. Gray
77'
D
T. Gray
77'
D
21
Aiden O'Neill
M
Aiden O'Neill
M
55
Keaton Parks
65'
M
Keaton Parks
65'
M
87
Arnau Farnos
65'
M
Arnau Farnos
65'
M
10
M. Moralez
82'
M
M. Moralez
82'
M
26
A. Ojeda
65'
M
A. Ojeda
65'
M
7
N. Fernández Mercau
F
N. Fernández Mercau
F
Bench
2
Nico Cavallo
D
Nico Cavallo
D
34
Raul Gustavo
25'
D
Raul Gustavo
25'
D
99
S. Reid
25'
F
S. Reid
25'
F
19
Strahinja Tanasijević
D
11
Talles Magno
25'
F
Talles Magno
25'
F
Best on the pitch
M. Longstaff
M · CF
8.20
1 👟
· 40 pass
P. Owusu
F · CF
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
N. Fernández Mercau
F · New
7.30
1 shots
· 39 pass
T. Gillier
G · CF
7.00
· 32 pass
Raul Gustavo
D · New
7.00
· 25 pass
J. Neal
D · CF
7.00
· 45 pass
CF Montreal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Gillier | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 1 | — | — | |
| B. Vera | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Neal | D | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Bugaj | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | 4 | 1 | — |
| M. Longstaff | M | 90 | 8.20 | — | 1 | — | 40 | 35% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Samuel Piette | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| V. Loturi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Jaime | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 13% | — | — | — |
| P. Owusu | F | 75 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Noah Streit | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Efraín Morales | D | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| F. Herbers | F | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Escobar | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
New York City FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 62 | 53% | — | — | — | |
| Kai Trewin | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 111 | 102% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Thiago Martins | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 101 | 96% | — | — | — |
| T. Gray | D | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 51 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 63% | 1 | — | — |
| Keaton Parks | M | 65 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 50% | 1 | — | — |
| Arnau Farnos | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Moralez | M | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Ojeda | M | 65 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| N. Fernández Mercau | F | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 30% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 25 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| S. Reid | F | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of CF Montreal vs New York City FC?
The final score was CF Montreal 1–0 New York City FC.
What did the model predict before CF Montreal vs New York City FC?
The model assigned 39% probability to a CF Montreal win, 26% to a draw, and 33% to an New York City FC win.