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CF Os Belenenses - Arouca

Taça de Portugal October 17, 2026 16:00
CF Os Belenenses
vs
Arouca
⚡ Pre-match analysis
62.07%
Win
CF Os Belenenses
19.08%
Draw
18.85%
Win
Arouca
3.39
Expected xG
1.25
Most likely outcome
CF Os Belenenses
62.07%
Probability

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.88%)
1X2 Result
1 62%
X 19%
2 19%
Double Chance
1X 81%
X2 38%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 73%
✓ 63.6% hit rate (44 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives CF Os Belenenses a 62% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Arouca. Expected goals are 3.4 for CF Os Belenenses and 1.3 for Arouca (total 4.6), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.88% probability.

Season Stats

CF Os Belenenses
4W 0D 1L
Arouca
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
1.5
0.6
Conceded
1.5
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
100%
40%
O 2.5
100%
40%
BTTS
100%
60%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
67%
BTTS
CF Os Belenenses
2W 0D 1L · at home
Arouca
1W 0D 1L · away
1.3
gls/g
1.5
0.7
Conceded
1.5
67%
Win %
50%
67%
Win or Draw
50%
67%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
100%
0%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
100%
67%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ CF Os Belenenses Arouca →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% —
1 3.3% 4.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.5% 6.9% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.3% 7.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
4 5.3% 6.6% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
5 3.6% 4.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses
W Beira-Mar 0–2
W Lusitano Évora 1911 1–2
L Estoril 1–2
W Maritimo 2–0
W Amora 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 46%
Arouca Arouca
L Fafe 2–1
W Portimonense 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 44%

Playing profile

CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses
Attack
53
Defence
88
Form
77
Arouca Arouca
Attack
37
Defence
62
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
The model gives CF Os Belenenses a 62% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 18% for an Arouca win.
How many goals are expected in CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
Expected goals: CF Os Belenenses 3.4, Arouca 1.3 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.88%.