Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 13, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 30 October 13, 2026 00:30 Arena Condá, Chapeco

Chapecoense-sc

#20 · 21 pts

1 – 4

Final score

Atletico Paranaense

#5 · 54 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Atletico Paranaense

Maurício Garcez (ast. Yannick Bolasie) 72'

6' (ast. Gilberto) Leonardo Caetano Silva

29' Luiz Gustavo

31' (ast. Gilberto) Kevin Viveros

78' (ast. Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio) Kevin Viveros

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Paranaense a 57% win probability (draw 16%, Chapecoense-sc 25%). The final result was Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense. In 1 previous meetings, Chapecoense-sc have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.75

Actual xG

1.39

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. Gilberto · Leonardo Caetano Silva⚽

29'

Luiz Gustavo⚽

31'

ast. Gilberto · Kevin Viveros⚽

Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior

40'

João Paulo

45'

↕ Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior / Yannick Bolasie

45'

↕ Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos / Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski

45'

Claudinho / Lucas Esquivel ↕

45'

Leonardo Pinheiro da Conceição / Arthur Dias ↕

45'

Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio / Leonardo Caetano Silva ↕

70'

Gilberto

↕ Yago Felipe / David Antunes da Silva

70'

↕ Giovanni Augusto / Rodrigo

71'

⚽Maurício Garcez · ast. Yannick Bolasie

72'

78'

ast. Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio · Kevin Viveros⚽

↕ Kauan Faria / Rafael Thyere

84'

Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva / Gilberto ↕

89'

Juan Portilla / Luiz Gustavo ↕

Pre-match prediction

25.83%

Chapecoense-sc

16.89%

57.28%

Atletico ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Paranaense) 57.28% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Chapecoense-sc

2.16

1.75

-0.42

Atletico

3.26

1.39

-1.87

Chapecoense-sc dominated by xG (1.75 vs 1.39). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	73
2	Palmeiras	33	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	57
4	Fluminense	33	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	54
6	Bahia	33	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	50
8	Santos	33	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	43
11	Botafogo	33	39
12	Coritiba	32	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	38
14	Vitoria	32	38
15	Gremio	33	37
16	Mirassol	32	37
17	Internacional	33	35
18	Corinthians	32	33
19	Remo	33	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	21

Lineups

Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1

Anderson G 6.26

Bruno Pacheco D 6.00

João Paulo D 5.90

Kauan Faria Gomes 84' D 6.11

Dudu 45' D 6.15

Bruno Matias M 6.59

Yago Felipe 70' M 6.38

Garcez 1 ⚽ M 7.92

Giovanni Augusto 71' M 6.99

Marcinho 45' M 5.84

F 0.00

Bench

Bruno Tubarão F 0.00

David Antunes 20' M 5.82

Doma 45' D 6.53

F. Rossi F 0.00

Gabriel Werner G 0.00

Mancha D 0.00

Matheus Aurélio G 0.00

Miguel Carvalho M 0.00

Rafael Thyere 6' D 5.70

Rodrigo 19' F 6.38

Y. Bolasie 1 👟 45' F 7.31

Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1

Mycael G 7.81

Lucas Esquivel 45' D 6.82

Juan Felipe Aguirre D 6.69

Arthur Dias 45' D 6.62

Steven Mendoza M 7.70

Luiz Gustavo 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.13

Jádson M 6.32

Gilberto 2 👟 84' M 6.93

João Cruz M 6.71

Leozinho 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.75

Kevin Viveros 2 ⚽ F 8.91

Bench

Bruno Zapelli M 0.00

Chiqueti M 0.00

Claudinho 45' D 6.76

Dudu 1 👟 45' M 6.96

Felipinho 6' D 6.25

Gilberto Junior D 0.00

Jorge Rivaldo F 0.00

Juan Portilla 1' M 6.23

Léo 45' D 6.46

Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno F 0.00

Santos G 0.00

Best on the pitch

Kevin Viveros

F · Atletico

8.91

2 ⚽

3 shots · 8 pass

Luiz Gustavo

M · Atletico

8.13

1 ⚽

2 shots · 36 pass

Garcez

M · Chapecoense-sc

7.92

1 ⚽

6 shots · 20 pass

Mycael

G · Atletico

7.81

· 35 pass

Leozinho

M · Atletico

7.75

1 ⚽

2 shots · 14 pass

Steven Mendoza

M · Atletico

7.70

2 shots · 43 pass

Chapecoense-sc — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Anderson	G	90	6.26	—	—	0	14	9%	0	—	—
Bruno Pacheco	D	90	6.00	—	—	0	28	24%	0	—	—
João Paulo	D	90	5.90	—	—	0	47	41%	0	1	—
Kauan Faria Gomes	D	84	6.11	—	—	0	40	37%	1	—	—
Dudu	D	45	6.15	—	—	0	21	18%	0	—	—
Bruno Matias	M	90	6.59	—	—	1	58	56%	2	—	—
Yago Felipe	M	70	6.38	—	—	1	40	39%	0	—	—
Garcez	M	90	7.92	1	—	6	20	17%	0	—	—
Giovanni Augusto	M	71	6.99	—	—	0	43	35%	2	—	—
Marcinho	M	45	5.84	—	—	1	14	12%	0	1	—
	F	0	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
David Antunes	M	20	5.82	—	—	0	7	7%	0	—	—
Doma	D	45	6.53	—	—	1	21	19%	0	—	—
Rafael Thyere	D	6	5.70	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
Rodrigo	F	19	6.38	—	—	1	3	2%	0	—	—
Y. Bolasie	F	45	7.31	—	1	7	7	6%	1	—	—

Atletico Paranaense — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Mycael	G	90	7.81	—	—	0	35	25%	0	—	—
Lucas Esquivel	D	45	6.82	—	—	0	27	24%	0	—	—
Juan Felipe Aguirre	D	90	6.69	—	—	0	45	41%	0	—	—
Arthur Dias	D	45	6.62	—	—	1	31	24%	0	—	—
Steven Mendoza	M	90	7.70	—	—	2	43	39%	0	—	—
Luiz Gustavo	M	89	8.13	1	—	2	36	35%	0	—	—
Jádson	M	90	6.32	—	—	0	33	29%	1	—	—
Gilberto	M	84	6.93	—	2	0	33	25%	2	1	—
João Cruz	M	90	6.71	—	—	0	28	26%	2	—	—
Leozinho	M	45	7.75	1	—	2	14	12%	1	—	—
Kevin Viveros	F	90	8.91	2	—	3	8	8%	0	—	—
Claudinho	D	45	6.76	—	—	0	45	39%	0	—	—
Dudu	M	45	6.96	—	1	1	12	10%	1	—	—
Felipinho	D	6	6.25	—	—	0	6	4%	0	—	—
Juan Portilla	M	1	6.23	—	—	0	4	2%	0	—	—
Léo	D	45	6.46	—	—	0	37	37%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

The final score was Chapecoense-sc 1–4 Atletico Paranaense.

What did the model predict before Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

The model assigned 25% probability to a Chapecoense-sc win, 16% to a draw, and 57% to an Atletico Paranaense win.