MLS
· Regular Season - 15
May 17, 2026 01:30
W. Zaha
(ast. K. A. Calderon Vargas)
19'
D. Schnegg
(ast. K. A. Calderon Vargas)
35'
P. Biel
84'
(pen.)
22'
(ast. J. Osorio)
D. Etienne
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Charlotte a 46% win probability (draw 26%, Toronto FC 27%). The final result was Charlotte 3–1 Toronto FC.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
4
2.12
Actual xG
0.88
3
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
7
Corners
3
16
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽W. Zaha
· ast. K. A. Calderon Vargas
19'
22'
ast. J. Osorio ·
D. Etienne⚽
28'
⚽D. Schnegg
· ast. K. A. Calderon Vargas
35'
P. Biel
49'
54'
M. Henry
58'
N. Gomis
/
R. Edwards
K. A. Calderon Vargas
/ R. Aloko
66'
B. Bronico
/ D. Diani
66'
I. Toklomati
/ A. Goodwin
75'
N. Byrne
/ W. Cleary
75'
78'
F. Bank
/
M. Henry
83'
J. Osorio
⚽P. Biel
(pen.)
84'
P. Biel
/ L. de la Torre
87'
A. Westwood
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
46.45%
Charlotte ←
26.55%
X
27.0%
Toronto
we assigned to the actual result (Charlotte)
46.45%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.49
2.12
+0.63
1.08
0.88
-0.2
Charlotte dominated by xG (2.12 vs 0.88).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Kristijan Kahlina
G
Kristijan Kahlina
G
23
David Schnegg
1 ⚽
D
David Schnegg
1 ⚽
D
4
Andrew Privett
D
Andrew Privett
D
44
Morrison Agyemang
D
Morrison Agyemang
D
14
Nathan Byrne
75'
D
Nathan Byrne
75'
D
8
A. Westwood
M
A. Westwood
M
13
Brandt Bronico
66'
M
Brandt Bronico
66'
M
10
W. Zaha
1 ⚽
M
W. Zaha
1 ⚽
M
16
Pep Biel
1 ⚽
87'
M
Pep Biel
1 ⚽
87'
M
18
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
2 👟
66'
M
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
2 👟
66'
M
9
Idan Toklomati
75'
F
Idan Toklomati
75'
F
Bench
7
Archie Goodwin
15'
F
Archie Goodwin
15'
F
48
Aron John
M
Aron John
M
28
Djibril Diani
24'
M
Djibril Diani
24'
M
22
Henry Kessler
D
Henry Kessler
D
11
Liel Abada
F
Liel Abada
F
17
Luca De La Torre
8'
M
Luca De La Torre
8'
M
37
Rodolfo Aloko
24'
F
21
Tyler Miller
G
Tyler Miller
G
35
Will Cleary
15'
D
Will Cleary
15'
D
1
Luka Gavran
G
Luka Gavran
G
44
R. Edwards
58'
D
R. Edwards
58'
D
38
Jackson Gilman
D
Jackson Gilman
D
25
Walker Zimmerman
D
Walker Zimmerman
D
19
Kobe Franklin
D
Kobe Franklin
D
21
Jonathan Osorio
1 👟
M
Jonathan Osorio
1 👟
M
14
Alonso Coello
M
Alonso Coello
M
11
Derrick Etienne
1 ⚽
M
Derrick Etienne
1 ⚽
M
20
Dániel Sallói
M
Dániel Sallói
M
78
Malik Henry
78'
M
Malik Henry
78'
M
17
Emilio Aristizábal
F
Emilio Aristizábal
F
Bench
77
Adisa De Rosario
G
Adisa De Rosario
G
91
Dekwon Barrow
F
Dekwon Barrow
F
79
Fletcher Bank
12'
F
Fletcher Bank
12'
F
74
Luca Costabile
D
Luca Costabile
D
15
Nickseon Gomis
32'
D
Nickseon Gomis
32'
D
98
Stefan Kapor
D
Stefan Kapor
D
23
William Yarbrough
G
William Yarbrough
G
Best on the pitch
W. Zaha
M · Charlotte
8.20
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 63 pass
Morrison Agyemang
D · Charlotte
7.90
1 shots
· 56 pass
Pep Biel
M · Charlotte
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
A. Westwood
M · Charlotte
7.60
· 47 pass
Andrew Privett
D · Charlotte
7.30
· 50 pass
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
M · Charlotte
7.30
2 👟
3 shots
· 17 pass
Charlotte — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| David Schnegg | D | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 47 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Morrison Agyemang | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 51% | 3 | — | — |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Westwood | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Brandt Bronico | M | 66 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| W. Zaha | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 6 | 63 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Pep Biel | M | 87 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 34% | — | 1 | — |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | M | 66 | 7.30 | — | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Idan Toklomati | F | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Archie Goodwin | F | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Djibril Diani | M | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Rodolfo Aloko | F | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Will Cleary | D | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Gavran | G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | — | — | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Jackson Gilman | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| Walker Zimmerman | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 58 | 49% | 4 | — | — |
| Kobe Franklin | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Osorio | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | 1 | — | 63 | 59% | — | 1 | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 73% | 1 | — | — |
| Derrick Etienne | M | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Dániel Sallói | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 78 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Fletcher Bank | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Nickseon Gomis | D | 32 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Charlotte vs Toronto FC?
The final score was Charlotte 3–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before Charlotte vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Charlotte win, 26% to a draw, and 27% to an Toronto FC win.