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Chaves - Os Marialvas

Taça de Portugal October 17, 2026 16:00
Chaves
vs
Os Marialvas
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.9%
Win
Chaves
29.83%
Draw
40.27%
Win
Os Marialvas
1.21
Expected xG
2.69

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.52%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 30%
2 40%
Double Chance
1X 60%
X2 70%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 57%
✓ 63.6% hit rate (44 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Os Marialvas a 40% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Chaves. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chaves and 2.7 for Os Marialvas (total 3.9), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.52% probability.

Season Stats

Chaves
2W 0D 1L
Os Marialvas
3W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
1.5
1.3
Conceded
0.0
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
25%
33%
O 2.5
25%
33%
BTTS
0%
33%
Clean Sht
100%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Taça de Portugal. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
0%
BTTS
Chaves
0W 0D 1L · at home
Os Marialvas
3W 1D 0L · away
0.0
gls/g
1.5
2.0
Conceded
0.0
0%
Win %
75%
0%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
25%
0%
O 2.5
25%
0%
O 3.5
25%
0%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
100%
100%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Chaves Os Marialvas →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.0% 5.4% 7.3% 6.5% 4.4% 2.4%
1 2.5% 6.6% 8.9% 7.9% 5.3% 2.9%
2 1.5% 4.0% 5.4% 4.8% 3.2% 1.7%
3 0.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
5 — 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Recent form

Chaves Chaves
W Guarda 2–3
L Benfica 0–2
W Paredes 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 28%
Os Marialvas Os Marialvas
W Ovarense 0–1
W AD Fornos Algodres 0–4
D Mortágua 0–0
W Academica 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 51%

Playing profile

Chaves Chaves
Attack
38
Defence
50
Form
46
Os Marialvas Os Marialvas
Attack
42
Defence
100
Form
74
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
The model gives Chaves a 29% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 40% for an Os Marialvas win.
How many goals are expected in Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Expected goals: Chaves 1.2, Os Marialvas 2.7 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.52%.