Chelsea 4–3 Brighton — pre-match prediction — Premier League — August 30, 2026

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Premier League · Regular Season - 2 August 30, 2026 15:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea

#5 · 13 pts

4 – 3

Final score

Brighton

#3 · 16 pts

R. Lavia 4'

P. Neto (ast. M. Rogers) 14'

Joao Pedro (ast. J. Hato) 32'

C. Palmer (ast. Joao Pedro) 74'

35' M. Yalcouye

(og) 63' Joao Pedro

90'+6 P. Gross

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chelsea a 36% win probability (draw 31%, Brighton 32%). The final result was Chelsea 4–3 Brighton. In 2 previous meetings, Chelsea have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Brighton.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.97

Actual xG

1.47

Saves

26%

Possession

74%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽R. Lavia

⚽P. Neto · ast. M. Rogers

14'

⚽Joao Pedro · ast. J. Hato

32'

35'

M. Yalcouye⚽

W. Fofana

55'

63'

(og) Joao Pedro⚽

↕ R. Lavia / R. James

68'

↕ W. Fofana / J. Acheampong

68'

↕ P. Neto / M. Caicedo

68'

70'

L. Dunk

↕ L. Colwill / P. Chavarria

72'

74'

I. Osman / M. Yalcouye ↕

⚽C. Palmer · ast. Joao Pedro

74'

81'

P. David / C. Kostoulas ↕

81'

Costinha / M. Wieffer ↕

↕ M. Caicedo / V. Barco

82'

89'

O. Boscagli

90'+1

Costinha

90'+6

P. Gross⚽

Pre-match prediction

36.38%

Chelsea ←

31.02%

32.6%

Brighton

we assigned to the actual result (Chelsea) 36.38% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Chelsea

0.86

2.97

+2.11

Brighton

1.52

1.47

-0.05

Chelsea dominated by xG (2.97 vs 1.47). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	8	21
2	Arsenal	8	21
3	Brighton	8	16
4	Liverpool	8	15
5	Chelsea	8	13
6	Brentford	8	11
7	Leeds	8	11
8	Newcastle	8	11
9	Aston Villa	8	11
10	Hull City	8	10
11	Everton	8	10
12	Ipswich	8	10
13	Bournemouth	8	9
14	Tottenham	8	9
15	Fulham	8	8
16	Manchester United	8	7
17	Crystal Palace	8	7
18	Nottingham Forest	8	6
19	Coventry	8	6
20	Sunderland	8	5

Lineups

Chelsea 3-4-2-1

E. Martínez G 8.50

L. Colwill 72' D 6.30

M. Lacroix D 6.50

W. Fofana 68' D 6.30

J. Hato 1 👟 M 7.20

R. Lavia 1 ⚽ 68' M 7.50

M. Gusto M 6.50

Pedro Neto 1 ⚽ 68' M 8.50

M. Rogers 1 👟 F 8.30

C. Palmer 1 ⚽ F 7.90

João Pedro 2 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.70

Bench

D. Welbeck F

Estêvão F

J. Bynoe-Gittens F

Joshua Kofi Acheampong 26' D 6.30

M. Caicedo 14' M 6.30

M. Penders G

Pep Chavarría 22' D 6.60

R. James 26' D 6.30

V. Barco 12' M 6.50

Brighton 4-2-3-1

B. Verbruggen G 4.90

F. Kadıoğlu D 5.70

L. Dunk D 5.90

L. Vušković D 6.70

Mats Wieffer 80' D 7.50

O. Boscagli M 6.30

P. Groß 1 ⚽ M 6.30

M. De Cuyper M 6.30

M. Yalcouyé 1 ⚽ 74' M 7.70

D. Gómez M 6.30

C. Kostoulas 80' F 6.50

Bench

A. Cozier-Duberry M

Costinha 14' D 6.50

I. Osman 20' F 6.70

J. Hadjam D

J. Steele G

M. O'Riley M

Nehemiah Oriola F

P. David 14' F 6.30

P. Struijk D

Best on the pitch

E. Martínez

G · Chelsea

8.50

· 38 pass

Pedro Neto

M · Chelsea

8.50

1 ⚽

2 shots · 11 pass

M. Rogers

F · Chelsea

8.30

1 👟

1 shots · 16 pass

C. Palmer

F · Chelsea

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 20 pass

M. Yalcouyé

M · Brighton

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 30 pass

João Pedro

F · Chelsea

7.70

2 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 23 pass

Chelsea — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
E. Martínez	G	94	8.50	—	—	—	38	15%	—	—	—
L. Colwill	D	72	6.30	—	—	—	18	11%	1	—	—
M. Lacroix	D	94	6.50	—	—	1	19	15%	1	—	—
W. Fofana	D	68	6.30	—	—	—	14	14%	—	1	—
J. Hato	M	94	7.20	—	1	—	12	9%	2	—	—
R. Lavia	M	68	7.50	1	—	1	15	13%	—	—	—
M. Gusto	M	94	6.50	—	—	—	11	6%	1	—	—
Pedro Neto	M	68	8.50	1	—	2	11	9%	—	—	—
M. Rogers	F	94	8.30	—	1	1	16	13%	1	—	—
C. Palmer	F	94	7.90	1	—	2	20	13%	2	—	—
João Pedro	F	94	7.70	2	1	3	23	15%	1	—	—
Joshua Kofi Acheampong	D	26	6.30	—	—	—	5	3%	1	—	—
M. Caicedo	M	14	6.30	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
Pep Chavarría	D	22	6.60	—	—	—	4	4%	1	—	—
R. James	D	26	6.30	—	—	—	6	4%	—	—	—
V. Barco	M	12	6.50	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—

Brighton — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
B. Verbruggen	G	94	4.90	—	—	—	44	36%	—	—	—
F. Kadıoğlu	D	94	5.70	—	—	1	61	57%	—	—	—
L. Dunk	D	94	5.90	—	—	—	90	82%	1	1	—
L. Vušković	D	94	6.70	—	—	2	94	87%	2	—	—
Mats Wieffer	D	80	7.50	—	—	1	51	46%	—	—	—
O. Boscagli	M	94	6.30	—	—	1	77	62%	—	1	—
P. Groß	M	94	6.30	1	—	—	59	51%	1	—	—
M. De Cuyper	M	94	6.30	—	—	—	42	36%	—	—	—
M. Yalcouyé	M	74	7.70	1	—	2	30	26%	3	—	—
D. Gómez	M	94	6.30	—	—	5	28	24%	2	—	—
C. Kostoulas	F	80	6.50	—	—	1	25	21%	—	—	—
Costinha	D	14	6.50	—	—	—	7	6%	—	1	—
I. Osman	F	20	6.70	—	—	—	8	6%	1	—	—
P. David	F	14	6.30	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Brighton?

The final score was Chelsea 4–3 Brighton.

What did the model predict before Chelsea vs Brighton?

The model assigned 36% probability to a Chelsea win, 31% to a draw, and 32% to an Brighton win.