Skip to main content
← EFL Cup

Chelsea - Luton

EFL Cup August 27, 2026 20:30 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea
vs
Luton
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky °C 💨 0 km/h · London
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.96%
Win
Chelsea
28.71%
Draw
39.33%
Win
Luton
1.55
Expected xG
2.24

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.46%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 29%
2 39%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 68%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 59%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Luton a 39% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Chelsea. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chelsea and 2.2 for Luton (total 3.8), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.46% probability.

Season Stats

Chelsea
3W 0D 2L
Luton
1W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
1.5
1.8
Conceded
0.5
4.4
Shots OT
6.0
4.4
Corners
7.0
60%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
50%
80%
O 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 5 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Chelsea
0W 0D 1L · at home
Luton
1W 0D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.5
3.0
Conceded
0.5
0%
Win %
50%
0%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
50%
100%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Chelsea Luton →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.3% 5.1% 5.7% 4.2% 2.4% 1.1%
1 3.5% 7.9% 8.8% 6.6% 3.7% 1.6%
2 2.7% 6.1% 6.8% 5.1% 2.8% 1.3%
3 1.4% 3.1% 3.5% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7%
4 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3%
5 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

Chelsea Chelsea
L Arsenal 1–0
L Arsenal 2–3
W Cardiff 1–3
W Wolves 3–4
W Lincoln 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Luton Luton
W Gillingham 0–3
L Coventry 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 36%

Playing profile

Chelsea Chelsea
Attack
46
Defence
53
Form
56
Luton Luton
Attack
56
Defence
77
Form
74
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Luton?
The model gives Chelsea a 31% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 39% for an Luton win.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Luton?
Expected goals: Chelsea 1.5, Luton 2.2 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea vs Luton?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.46%.