Chelsea - Manchester City
FA Cup
May 16, 2026 16:00
Weather at kick-off
⛅
Partly cloudy
15.0°C
💨 10 km/h
· London
⚡ Pre-match analysis
20.92%
Win
Chelsea
22.36%
Draw
56.72%
Win
Manchester City
1.06
1.9
Expected xG
Model prediction
Manchester City
56.72%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 1 predictions (3 months)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Manchester City a 56% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Chelsea. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chelsea and 1.9 for Manchester City (total 3.0), with a 87% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.4% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Chelsea have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Manchester City.
Score Matrix
↕ Chelsea
Manchester City →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Chelsea
Attack
33
Defence
61
Form
43
Manchester City
Attack
64
Defence
73
Form
80
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester City?
The model gives Chelsea a 20% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 56% for an Manchester City win.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Manchester City?
Expected goals: Chelsea 1.1, Manchester City 1.9 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 87%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea vs Manchester City?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.4%.