Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest — pre-match prediction — Premier League — May 04, 2026

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Premier League · Regular Season - 35 May 04, 2026 16:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea

#10 · 7 pts

1 – 3

Final score

Nottingham Forest

#13 · 5 pts

Joao Pedro (ast. M. Cucurella) 90'+3

2' (ast. D. Bakwa) T. Awoniyi

(pen.) 15' Igor Jesus

52' (ast. M. Gibbs-White) T. Awoniyi

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Nottingham Forest a 39% win probability (draw 25%, Chelsea 34%). The final result was Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest. In 1 previous meetings, Chelsea have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Nottingham Forest.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.93

Actual xG

2.07

Saves

68%

Possession

32%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. D. Bakwa · T. Awoniyi⚽

10'

Morato

M. Gusto

14'

15'

(pen.) Igor Jesus⚽

45'+5

N. Williams / Z. Abbott ↕

↕ J. Derry / L. Delap

45'+9

⚽C. Palmer (missed pen.)

45'+10

↕ T. Adarabioyo / L. Colwill

46'

N. Milenkovic / Cunha ↕

46'

E. Anderson / N. Dominguez ↕

46'

M. Gibbs-White / Igor Jesus ↕

52'

ast. M. Gibbs-White · T. Awoniyi⚽

↕ R. Lavia / Andrey Santos

58'

66'

C. Wood / M. Gibbs-White ↕

↕ R. Sanchez / F. Jorgensen

66'

73'

M. Caicedo

78'

L. Delap

78'

80'

O. Hutchinson / D. Bakwa ↕

⚽Joao Pedro · ast. M. Cucurella

90'+3

Pre-match prediction

34.79%

Chelsea

25.87%

39.34%

Nottingham ←

we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest) 39.34% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Chelsea

1.07

1.93

+0.86

Nottingham

1.35

2.07

+0.72

xG dominance was balanced (1.93 – 2.07). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	15
2	Arsenal	5	12
3	Brighton	5	10
4	Brentford	5	9
5	Leeds	5	9
6	Liverpool	5	9
7	Everton	5	9
8	Hull City	5	8
9	Newcastle	5	8
10	Chelsea	5	7
11	Ipswich	5	6
12	Manchester United	5	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	5
14	Sunderland	5	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	3
18	Coventry	5	3
19	Fulham	5	2
20	Tottenham	5	2

Lineups

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

Robert Sánchez 66' G 6.30

Marc Cucurella 1 👟 D 6.30

T. Adarabioyo 45' D 6.30

D 6.20

M. Gusto D 5.90

M. Caicedo M 7.00

R. Lavia 58' M 6.90

J. Derry 54' M 6.60

E. Fernández M 7.70

C. Palmer M 5.90

João Pedro 1 ⚽ F 7.70

Bench

Andrey Santos 42' M 7.20

Dário Essugo M

F. Jörgensen 34' G 6.30

J. Hato D

L. Delap 46' F 6.20

R. James D

W. Fofana D

Nottingham Forest 4-4-2

G 7.90

D 6.90

Morato D 6.90

Jair 45' D 6.90

Z. Abbott 50' D 6.50

J. McAtee M 6.30

N. Domínguez 45' M 7.00

R. Yates M 6.90

D. Bakwa 1 👟 80' M 7.50

T. Awoniyi 2 ⚽ F 8.70

Igor Jesus 1 ⚽ 45' F 6.90

Bench

C. Wood 34' F 6.90

E. Anderson 55' M 7.20

M. Gibbs-White 1 👟 21' M 7.30

N. Milenković 55' D 6.30

N. Williams 50' D 6.30

Omari Hutchinson 20' F 6.30

Best on the pitch

T. Awoniyi

F · Nottingham

8.70

2 ⚽

2 shots · 7 pass

G · Nottingham

7.90

· 32 pass

João Pedro

F · Chelsea

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

E. Fernández

M · Chelsea

7.70

2 shots · 79 pass

D. Bakwa

M · Nottingham

7.50

1 👟

· 17 pass

M. Gibbs-White

M · Nottingham

7.30

1 👟

· 8 pass

Chelsea — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Robert Sánchez	G	66	6.30	—	—	—	20	15%	—	—	—
Marc Cucurella	D	100	6.30	—	1	1	63	56%	2	—	—
T. Adarabioyo	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	51	47%	2	—	—
	D	100	6.20	—	—	1	75	71%	—	—	—
M. Gusto	D	100	5.90	—	—	1	54	53%	—	1	—
M. Caicedo	M	100	7.00	—	—	—	88	83%	3	1	—
R. Lavia	M	58	6.90	—	—	—	44	40%	3	—	—
J. Derry	M	54	6.60	—	—	2	13	12%	1	—	—
E. Fernández	M	100	7.70	—	—	2	79	71%	1	—	—
C. Palmer	M	100	5.90	—	—	3	42	38%	—	—	—
João Pedro	F	100	7.70	1	—	2	26	19%	—	—	—
Andrey Santos	M	42	7.20	—	—	—	44	41%	1	—	—
F. Jörgensen	G	34	6.30	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
L. Delap	F	46	6.20	—	—	1	2	1%	—	1	—

Nottingham Forest — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	100	7.90	—	—	—	32	16%	—	—	—
	D	100	6.90	—	—	—	21	17%	6	—	—
Morato	D	100	6.90	—	—	—	42	31%	1	1	—
Jair	D	45	6.90	—	—	—	19	17%	1	—	—
Z. Abbott	D	50	6.50	—	—	—	16	12%	2	—	—
J. McAtee	M	100	6.30	—	—	1	26	20%	1	—	—
N. Domínguez	M	45	7.00	—	—	—	23	23%	2	—	—
R. Yates	M	100	6.90	—	—	—	34	27%	2	—	—
D. Bakwa	M	80	7.50	—	1	—	17	15%	1	—	—
T. Awoniyi	F	100	8.70	2	—	2	7	5%	—	—	—
Igor Jesus	F	45	6.90	1	—	2	10	10%	—	—	—
C. Wood	F	34	6.90	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
E. Anderson	M	55	7.20	—	—	—	22	17%	2	—	—
M. Gibbs-White	M	21	7.30	—	1	—	8	5%	—	—	—
N. Milenković	D	55	6.30	—	—	—	18	18%	—	—	—
N. Williams	D	50	6.30	—	—	—	17	14%	4	—	—
Omari Hutchinson	F	20	6.30	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?

The final score was Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest.

What did the model predict before Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?

The model assigned 34% probability to a Chelsea win, 25% to a draw, and 39% to an Nottingham Forest win.