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Chelyabinsk - Shinnik Yaroslavl

First League May 16, 2026 12:00
Chelyabinsk
#10 · 43 pts
vs
Shinnik Yaroslavl
#8 · 47 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
22.65%
Win
Chelyabinsk
33.48%
Draw
43.87%
Win
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.72
Expected xG
1.27

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 43% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 22% for Chelyabinsk. Expected goals are 0.7 for Chelyabinsk and 1.3 for Shinnik Yaroslavl (total 2.0), with a 68% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 17.3% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Chelyabinsk have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Shinnik Yaroslavl.

Score Matrix
↕ Chelyabinsk Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.6% 17.3% 11.0% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.8% 12.5% 8.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 3.5% 4.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —
Recent form
Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk
L Rodina Moskva 2–0
W FK Neftekhimik 2–0
L Ural 1–2
D Arsenal Tula 0–0
L Enisey 3–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl
D Torpedo Moskva 1–1
W Ural 0–1
W Ska-khabarovsk 3–0
D Fakel 2–2
W Arsenal Tula 2–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 39%
Playing profile
Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk
Attack
22
Defence
63
Form
38
Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl
Attack
32
Defence
90
Form
59
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Chelyabinsk
0
Draw
1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
L 1 Nov 2025 First League 0–1
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 33 65
2 Fakel Fakel 33 65
3 Ural Ural 33 61
4 Rotor Volgograd Rotor Volgograd 33 53
5 KAMAZ KAMAZ 33 49
6 Enisey Enisey 33 49
7 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma 33 49
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl 33 47
9 Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva 33 43
10 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk 33 43
11 FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik 33 43
12 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 33 39
13 Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk 33 39
14 Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 33 37
15 FC UFA FC UFA 33 34
16 Chernomorets Chernomorets 33 32
17 FK Sokol Saratov FK Sokol Saratov 33 23
18 Chayka Chayka 33 22
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
The model gives Chelyabinsk a 22% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 43% for an Shinnik Yaroslavl win.
How many goals are expected in Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Expected goals: Chelyabinsk 0.7, Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.3 (total 2.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 68%.
What is the most likely score in Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.3%.