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Chernihiv - Inhulets

Persha Liga November 11, 2026 10:30
Chernihiv
#15 · 10 pts
vs
Inhulets
#10 · 18 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.75%
Win
Chernihiv
27.12%
Draw
32.13%
Win
Inhulets
1.48
Expected xG
1.26

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (12.13%)
1X2 Result
1 41%
X 27%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 59%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 50%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Chernihiv a 40% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Inhulets. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chernihiv and 1.3 for Inhulets (total 2.7), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.13% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Chernihiv have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Inhulets.

Season Stats

Chernihiv
2W 5D 8L
Inhulets
5W 3D 7L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
1.1
1.5
Conceded
1.5
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
73%
40%
O 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Persha Liga. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
30%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Chernihiv
3W 3D 4L · at home
Inhulets
2W 3D 5L · away
1.4
gls/g
1.0
1.2
Conceded
1.7
30%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
50%
70%
O 1.5
70%
60%
O 2.5
70%
30%
O 3.5
30%
60%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
10%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Chernihiv Inhulets →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.5% 8.1% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
1 9.5% 12.0% 7.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
2 7.1% 8.9% 5.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.5% 4.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% —
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Chernihiv Chernihiv
L Yarud Mariupol' 3–1
L Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2–1
W Prykarpattia 0–1
L SK Poltava 3–2
L Metal Kharkiv 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
Inhulets Inhulets
D Kulykiv 1–1
L Lokomotiv Kyiv 2–1
W Kolos Kovalivka II 2–0
L Yarud Mariupol' 4–1
L Ahrobiznes Volochysk 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Chernihiv Chernihiv
Attack
25
Defence
55
Form
41
Inhulets Inhulets
Attack
25
Defence
68
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Chernihiv
1
Draw
1
Inhulets
23 May 2026 Persha Liga 1–2
2 Nov 2025 Persha Liga 1–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka Viktoriya Mykolaivka 15 31
2 Yarud Mariupol' Yarud Mariupol' 15 28
3 Oleksandria Oleksandria 15 27
4 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ahrobiznes Volochysk 14 26
5 Kulykiv Kulykiv 15 25
6 SK Poltava SK Poltava 15 24
7 Nyva Ternopil Nyva Ternopil 15 22
8 Metal Kharkiv Metal Kharkiv 15 21
9 Lokomotiv Kyiv Lokomotiv Kyiv 15 20
10 Inhulets Inhulets 14 18
11 Prykarpattia Prykarpattia 15 17
12 UCSA UCSA 15 15
13 Kolos Kovalivka II Kolos Kovalivka II 14 13
14 Probiy Horodenka Probiy Horodenka 15 11
15 Chernihiv Chernihiv 12 10
16 Polissya II Polissya II 15 9
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
The model gives Chernihiv a 40% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 32% for an Inhulets win.
How many goals are expected in Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
Expected goals: Chernihiv 1.5, Inhulets 1.3 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.13%.