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Chernihiv - Inhulets

Persha Liga September 20, 2026 10:30
Chernihiv
#14 · 7 pts
vs
Inhulets
#8 · 11 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.77%
Win
Chernihiv
33.01%
Draw
30.22%
Win
Inhulets
0.96
Expected xG
0.72

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.55%)
1X2 Result
1 37%
X 33%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 63%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 50%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Chernihiv a 36% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Inhulets. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chernihiv and 0.7 for Inhulets (total 1.7), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.55% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Chernihiv have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Inhulets.

Season Stats

Chernihiv
2W 7D 6L
Inhulets
5W 6D 4L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.1
1.2
Conceded
1.2
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
67%
40%
O 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%
27%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Persha Liga. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Chernihiv
3W 3D 4L · at home
Inhulets
2W 4D 4L · away
1.4
gls/g
0.9
1.2
Conceded
1.5
30%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
60%
70%
O 1.5
80%
60%
O 2.5
50%
30%
O 3.5
20%
60%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
10%
Failed to Score
50%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Chernihiv Inhulets →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 18.7% 13.4% 4.8% 1.1% 0.2% —
1 18.0% 12.9% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 8.7% 6.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% — —
4 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% — — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Chernihiv Chernihiv
L UCSA 3–2
W Nyva Ternopil 1–0
L Oleksandria 1–0
D Polissya II 2–2
D Probiy Horodenka 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Inhulets Inhulets
W Metal Kharkiv 1–0
D SK Poltava 0–0
W UCSA 1–2
L Nyva Ternopil 1–2
L Oleksandria 3–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 19%

Playing profile

Chernihiv Chernihiv
Attack
25
Defence
64
Form
39
Inhulets Inhulets
Attack
26
Defence
63
Form
45
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Chernihiv
1
Draw
1
Inhulets
23 May 2026 Persha Liga 1–2
2 Nov 2025 Persha Liga 1–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka Viktoriya Mykolaivka 8 16
2 SK Poltava SK Poltava 8 15
3 Oleksandria Oleksandria 8 15
4 Kulykiv Kulykiv 8 14
5 Prykarpattia Prykarpattia 8 14
6 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ahrobiznes Volochysk 8 13
7 Yarud Mariupol' Yarud Mariupol' 8 13
8 Inhulets Inhulets 7 11
9 Metal Kharkiv Metal Kharkiv 8 10
10 Nyva Ternopil Nyva Ternopil 8 9
11 UCSA UCSA 8 9
12 Lokomotiv Kyiv Lokomotiv Kyiv 8 9
13 Kolos Kovalivka II Kolos Kovalivka II 8 9
14 Chernihiv Chernihiv 7 7
15 Polissya II Polissya II 8 6
16 Probiy Horodenka Probiy Horodenka 8 2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
The model gives Chernihiv a 36% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 30% for an Inhulets win.
How many goals are expected in Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
Expected goals: Chernihiv 1.0, Inhulets 0.7 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Chernihiv vs Inhulets?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.55%.