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Chernomorets - Ural

First League May 16, 2026 12:00
Chernomorets
#16 · 32 pts
vs
Ural
#3 · 61 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
13.25%
Win
Chernomorets
20.47%
Draw
66.28%
Win
Ural
0.6
Expected xG
2.25
Model prediction
Ural
66.28%
Probability

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ural a 66% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Chernomorets. Expected goals are 0.6 for Chernomorets and 2.3 for Ural (total 2.9), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–2 at 14.6% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Chernomorets have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Ural.

Score Matrix
↕ Chernomorets Ural →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.7% 12.9% 14.6% 10.9% 6.2% 2.8%
1 3.5% 7.8% 8.8% 6.6% 3.7% 1.7%
2 1.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5%
3 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
4 — 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —
Recent form
Chernomorets Chernomorets
W Chayka 0–2
L Rodina Moskva 1–3
L FK Sokol Saratov 0–1
L FK Neftekhimik 4–0
L FC UFA 1–0
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 22%
Ural Ural
W KAMAZ 2–0
L Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–1
W Chelyabinsk 1–2
W Torpedo Moskva 2–0
W FK Sokol Saratov 0–3
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 24%
Playing profile
Chernomorets Chernomorets
Attack
19
Defence
51
Form
27
Ural Ural
Attack
43
Defence
85
Form
65
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Chernomorets
0
Draw
1
Ural
L 28 Jul 2025 First League 2–3
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 33 65
2 Fakel Fakel 33 65
3 Ural Ural 33 61
4 Rotor Volgograd Rotor Volgograd 33 53
5 KAMAZ KAMAZ 33 49
6 Enisey Enisey 33 49
7 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma 33 49
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl 33 47
9 Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva 33 43
10 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk 33 43
11 FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik 33 43
12 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 33 39
13 Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk 33 39
14 Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 33 37
15 FC UFA FC UFA 33 34
16 Chernomorets Chernomorets 33 32
17 FK Sokol Saratov FK Sokol Saratov 33 23
18 Chayka Chayka 33 22
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chernomorets vs Ural?
The model gives Chernomorets a 13% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 66% for an Ural win.
How many goals are expected in Chernomorets vs Ural?
Expected goals: Chernomorets 0.6, Ural 2.3 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Chernomorets vs Ural?
0–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.6%.