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MLS · Regular Season - 11 May 03, 2026 02:30
#4 · 26 pts
2 – 3
Final score
#7 · 23 pts
Model wrong — prediction Chicago Fire, result FC Cincinnati wins
H. Cuypers 16'
H. Cuypers (ast. P. Zinckernagel) 28'
24' Evander
31' (ast. K. Mboma) Evander
(pen.) 90'+7 Evander
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chicago Fire a 54% win probability (draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 22%). The final result was Chicago Fire 2–3 FC Cincinnati. In 1 previous meetings, Chicago Fire have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC Cincinnati.

Match statistics
22
Total shots
6
10
Shots on target
4
3.62
Actual xG
1.74
1
Saves
8
55%
Possession
45%
10
Corners
1
12
Tackles
8
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
H. Cuypers
16'
24'
Evander
H. Cuypers · ast. P. Zinckernagel
28'
31'
ast. K. Mboma · Evander
46'
N. Hagglund / T. Anunga
56'
K. Smith
R. Lod / J. Bamba
59'
66'
M. Miazga / G. Valenzuela
68'
K. Denkey
77'
T. Barlow / K. Mboma
77'
A. Jabbari / K. Denkey
88'
A. Lajhar / B. J. Ramirez Leon
H. Cuypers (missed pen.)
90'+1
D. D'Avilla
90'+3
90'+7
(pen.) Evander
J. Dean / J. Shokalook
90'+8
90'+12
A. Chirila
90'
A. Lajhar
Pre-match prediction
54.38%
Chicago
22.85%
X
22.77%
FC ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Cincinnati) 22.77% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Chicago
3.46
3.62
+0.16
FC
1.72
1.74
+0.02
Chicago Fire dominated by xG (3.62 vs 1.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 17 39
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 17 37
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 16 29
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 16 26
5 New York City FC New York City FC 17 25
6 Charlotte Charlotte 17 25
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 17 23
8 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 17 22
9 DC United DC United 17 22
10 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 17 20
11 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 17 19
12 Toronto FC Toronto FC 17 16
13 CF Montreal CF Montreal 17 15
14 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 17 13
15 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 17 12
Lineups
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
1
G 6.50
15 Andrew Gutman Andrew Gutman D 5.90
4 Mbekezeli Mbokazi Mbekezeli Mbokazi D 6.20
3 Jack Elliott Jack Elliott D 5.90
24 J. Dean J. Dean D 6.90
6 Anton Salétros Anton Salétros M 7.30
42 Dje Tah D'Avilla Dje Tah D'Avilla M 6.00
7 Maren Haile-Selassie Maren Haile-Selassie M 6.90
17 Robin Lod Robin Lod 59' M 6.60
11 P. Zinckernagel P. Zinckernagel 1 👟 M 7.90
9 H. Cuypers H. Cuypers 2 ⚽ F 8.90
Bench
27 Dylan Borso Dylan Borso F
20 Jason Shokalook Jason Shokalook 1' F
16 Joel Waterman Joel Waterman D
19 Jonathan Bamba Jonathan Bamba 40' F 7.00
22 Mauricio Pineda Mauricio Pineda D
12 Puso Dithejane Puso Dithejane F
35 Sergio Oregel Sergio Oregel M
14 Viktor Radojević Viktor Radojević D
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
18
G 9.70
11 Samuel Gidi Samuel Gidi D 6.70
88 Andrei Chirila Andrei Chirila D 7.20
24 K. Smith K. Smith 56' D 5.20
29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León Bryan Josías Ramírez León 88' M 7.20
27 Tah Anunga Tah Anunga 45' M 6.50
22 G. Valenzuela G. Valenzuela 66' M 7.20
20 Pavel Bucha Pavel Bucha M 6.30
10 Evander Evander 3 ⚽ F 10.00
9 K. Denkey K. Denkey 77' F 6.90
17 Kenji Mboma Dem Kenji Mboma Dem 1 👟 77' F 6.30
Bench
55 Ayoub Lajhar Ayoub Lajhar 11' D 6.00
66 E. Echenique E. Echenique F
3 Gilberto Flores Gilberto Flores D
21 Matt Miazga Matt Miazga 33' D 6.70
4 Nick Hagglund Nick Hagglund 54' D 6.60
16 Tom Barlow Tom Barlow 22' F 6.30
Best on the pitch
Evander
Evander
F · FC
10.00
3 ⚽
3 shots · 38 pass
G · FC
9.70
· 33 pass
H. Cuypers
H. Cuypers
F · Chicago
8.90
2 ⚽
7 shots · 28 pass
P. Zinckernagel
P. Zinckernagel
M · Chicago
7.90
1 👟
5 shots · 45 pass
Anton Salétros
Anton Salétros
M · Chicago
7.30
3 shots · 54 pass
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
M · FC
7.20
1 shots · 38 pass
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 99 6.50 24 22%
Andrew Gutman D 99 5.90 1 29 22% 1
Mbekezeli Mbokazi D 99 6.20 47 42%
Jack Elliott D 99 5.90 3 67 57%
J. Dean D 98 6.90 51 49% 3
Anton Salétros M 99 7.30 3 54 45% 2
Dje Tah D'Avilla M 99 6.00 58 50% 2 1
Maren Haile-Selassie M 99 6.90 3 35 30%
Robin Lod M 59 6.60 11 7% 2
P. Zinckernagel M 99 7.90 1 5 45 39% 1
H. Cuypers F 99 8.90 2 7 28 22% 1
Jason Shokalook F 1
Jonathan Bamba F 40 7.00 24 22%
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 99 9.70 33 25%
Samuel Gidi D 99 6.70 61 57% 1
Andrei Chirila D 99 7.20 77 67%
K. Smith D 56 5.20 39 37% 1
Bryan Josías Ramírez León M 88 7.20 1 38 30% 3
Tah Anunga M 45 6.50 22 22% 1
G. Valenzuela M 66 7.20 26 22%
Pavel Bucha M 99 6.30 26 19%
Evander F 99 10.00 3 3 38 33% 1
K. Denkey F 77 6.90 1 9 7% 1 1
Kenji Mboma Dem F 77 6.30 1 1 18 16%
Ayoub Lajhar D 11 6.00 1
Matt Miazga D 33 6.70 5 2% 1
Nick Hagglund D 54 6.60 11 10%
Tom Barlow F 22 6.30 3 2%
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
The final score was Chicago Fire 2–3 FC Cincinnati.
What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 22% to a draw, and 22% to an FC Cincinnati win.