Skip to main content
← MLS
MLS · Regular Season - 11 May 03, 2026 02:30
Chicago Fire
#5 · 42 pts
2 – 3
Final score
FC Cincinnati
#10 · 33 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Chicago Fire, result FC Cincinnati wins
H. Cuypers 16'
H. Cuypers (ast. P. Zinckernagel) 28'
24' Evander
31' (ast. K. Mboma) Evander
(pen.) 90'+7 Evander
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chicago Fire a 54% win probability (draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 22%). The final result was Chicago Fire 2–3 FC Cincinnati. In 1 previous meetings, Chicago Fire have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC Cincinnati.

Match statistics
22
Total shots
6
10
Shots on target
4
3.62
Actual xG
1.74
1
Saves
8
55%
Possession
45%
10
Corners
1
12
Tackles
8
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽H. Cuypers
16'
24'
Evander⚽
⚽H. Cuypers · ast. P. Zinckernagel
28'
31'
ast. K. Mboma · Evander⚽
46'
N. Hagglund / T. Anunga ↕
56'
K. Smith
↕ R. Lod / J. Bamba
59'
66'
M. Miazga / G. Valenzuela ↕
68'
K. Denkey
77'
T. Barlow / K. Mboma ↕
77'
A. Jabbari / K. Denkey ↕
88'
A. Lajhar / B. J. Ramirez Leon ↕
⚽H. Cuypers (missed pen.)
90'+1
D. D'Avilla
90'+3
90'+7
(pen.) Evander⚽
↕ J. Dean / J. Shokalook
90'+8
90'+12
A. Chirila
90'
A. Lajhar
Pre-match prediction
54.38%
Chicago
22.85%
X
22.77%
FC ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Cincinnati) 22.77% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Chicago
3.46
3.62
+0.16
FC
1.72
1.74
+0.02
Chicago Fire dominated by xG (3.62 vs 1.74). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 27 60
2 New England Revolution New England Revolution 27 46
3 Inter Miami Inter Miami 27 46
4 Charlotte Charlotte 27 43
5 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 26 42
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 27 39
7 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 27 34
8 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 27 33
9 New York City FC New York City FC 27 33
10 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 26 33
11 DC United DC United 26 30
12 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 27 29
13 Toronto FC Toronto FC 27 29
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 27 27
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 27 24
Lineups
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
1
G 6.50
15 A. Gutman A. Gutman D 5.90
4 M. Mbokazi M. Mbokazi D 6.20
3 J. Elliott J. Elliott D 5.90
24 J. Dean J. Dean D 6.90
6 A. Salétros A. Salétros M 7.30
42 T. D'Avilla T. D'Avilla M 6.00
7 M. Haile-Selassie M. Haile-Selassie M 6.90
17 R. Lod R. Lod 59' M 6.60
11 P. Zinckernagel P. Zinckernagel 1 👟 M 7.90
9 H. Cuypers H. Cuypers 2 ⚽ F 8.90
Bench
27 Dylan Borso Dylan Borso F
20 Jason Shokalook Jason Shokalook 1' F
19 J. Bamba J. Bamba 40' F 7.00
16 Joel Waterman Joel Waterman D
22 M. Pineda M. Pineda D
12 P. Dithejane P. Dithejane F
35 S. Oregel S. Oregel M
14 Viktor Radojević Viktor Radojević D
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
18
G 9.70
11 S. Gidi S. Gidi D 6.70
88 Andrei Chirila Andrei Chirila D 7.20
24 K. Smith K. Smith 56' D 5.20
29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León Bryan Josías Ramírez León 88' M 7.20
27 B. Anunga B. Anunga 45' M 6.50
22 G. Valenzuela G. Valenzuela 66' M 7.20
20 P. Bucha P. Bucha M 6.30
10 Evander Evander 3 ⚽ F 10.00
9 K. Denkey K. Denkey 77' F 6.90
17 K. Mboma Dem K. Mboma Dem 1 👟 77' F 6.30
Bench
55 Ayoub Lajhar Ayoub Lajhar 11' D 6.00
66 E. Echenique E. Echenique F
3 Gilberto Flores Gilberto Flores D
21 M. Miazga M. Miazga 33' D 6.70
4 N. Hagglund N. Hagglund 54' D 6.60
16 T. Barlow T. Barlow 22' F 6.30
Best on the pitch
Evander
Evander
F · FC
10.00
3 ⚽
3 shots · 38 pass
G · FC
9.70
· 33 pass
H. Cuypers
H. Cuypers
F · Chicago
8.90
2 ⚽
7 shots · 28 pass
P. Zinckernagel
P. Zinckernagel
M · Chicago
7.90
1 👟
5 shots · 45 pass
A. Salétros
A. Salétros
M · Chicago
7.30
3 shots · 54 pass
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
M · FC
7.20
1 shots · 38 pass
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 99 6.50 — — — 24 22% — — —
A. Gutman D 99 5.90 — — 1 29 22% 1 — —
M. Mbokazi D 99 6.20 — — — 47 42% — — —
J. Elliott D 99 5.90 — — 3 67 57% — — —
J. Dean D 98 6.90 — — — 51 49% 3 — —
A. Salétros M 99 7.30 — — 3 54 45% 2 — —
T. D'Avilla M 99 6.00 — — — 58 50% 2 1 —
M. Haile-Selassie M 99 6.90 — — 3 35 30% — — —
R. Lod M 59 6.60 — — — 11 7% 2 — —
P. Zinckernagel M 99 7.90 — 1 5 45 39% 1 — —
H. Cuypers F 99 8.90 2 — 7 28 22% 1 — —
Jason Shokalook F 1 — — — — — — — — —
J. Bamba F 40 7.00 — — — 24 22% — — —
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 99 9.70 — — — 33 25% — — —
S. Gidi D 99 6.70 — — — 61 57% 1 — —
Andrei Chirila D 99 7.20 — — — 77 67% — — —
K. Smith D 56 5.20 — — — 39 37% — — 1
Bryan Josías Ramírez León M 88 7.20 — — 1 38 30% 3 — —
B. Anunga M 45 6.50 — — — 22 22% 1 — —
G. Valenzuela M 66 7.20 — — — 26 22% — — —
P. Bucha M 99 6.30 — — — 26 19% — — —
Evander F 99 10.00 3 — 3 38 33% 1 — —
K. Denkey F 77 6.90 — — 1 9 7% 1 1 —
K. Mboma Dem F 77 6.30 — 1 1 18 16% — — —
Ayoub Lajhar D 11 6.00 — — — — — — 1 —
M. Miazga D 33 6.70 — — — 5 2% 1 — —
N. Hagglund D 54 6.60 — — — 11 10% — — —
T. Barlow F 22 6.30 — — — 3 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
The final score was Chicago Fire 2–3 FC Cincinnati.
What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs FC Cincinnati?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 22% to a draw, and 22% to an FC Cincinnati win.