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MLS · Regular Season - 12 May 09, 2026 20:30
Chicago Fire
#4 · 39 pts
1 – 3
Final score
New York Red Bulls
#12 · 27 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Chicago Fire, result New York Red Bulls wins
D. Nealis 87' (og)
45' (ast. E. Forsberg) J. Ruvalcaba
49' (ast. R. Donkor) C. Cowell
(pen.) 81' E. M. Choupo-Moting
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Chicago Fire a 66% win probability (draw 17%, New York Red Bulls 15%). The final result was Chicago Fire 1–3 New York Red Bulls. In 1 previous meetings, Chicago Fire have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for New York Red Bulls.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
0.91
Actual xG
1.48
1
Saves
3
64%
Possession
36%
6
Corners
3
21
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
8'
18'
R. Voloder
45'
ast. E. Forsberg · J. Ruvalcaba⚽
46'
E. M. Choupo-Moting / J. Hall ↕
49'
ast. R. Donkor · C. Cowell⚽
61'
G. Berggren / E. Forsberg ↕
↕ J. Bamba / P. Dithejane
62'
73'
R. Mosquera / C. Cowell ↕
73'
O. Valencia / M. Dos Santos ↕
↕ A. Saletros / S. Oregel
80'
↕ J. Dean / J. Shokalook
80'
↕ D. D'Avilla / M. Pineda
80'
80'
J. Che / R. Voloder ↕
81'
(pen.) E. M. Choupo-Moting⚽
M. Haile-Selassie
82'
82'
J. Ruvalcaba
↕ M. Haile-Selassie / D. Borso
85'
⚽D. Nealis (og)
87'
90'+6
O. Valencia
Pre-match prediction
66.66%
Chicago
17.85%
X
15.49%
New ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (New York Red Bulls) 15.49% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Chicago
3.94
0.91
-3.03
New
0.93
1.48
+0.55
New York Red Bulls dominated by xG (1.48 vs 0.91). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 24 53
2 Inter Miami Inter Miami 24 44
3 New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 40
4 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 23 39
5 Charlotte Charlotte 24 39
6 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 24 31
7 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 23 31
8 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 24 30
9 New York City FC New York City FC 24 29
10 Toronto FC Toronto FC 24 29
11 DC United DC United 23 28
12 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 24 27
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 24 23
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 24 22
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 24 21
Lineups
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 4-2-3-1
1
G 5.50
15 A. Gutman A. Gutman D 6.50
3 J. Elliott J. Elliott D 6.30
16 J. Waterman J. Waterman D 6.70
24 J. Dean J. Dean 80' D 6.70
42 T. D'Avilla T. D'Avilla 80' M 7.20
6 A. Salétros A. Salétros 80' M 7.20
19 Jonathan Bamba Jonathan Bamba 61' M 6.70
7 M. Haile-Selassie M. Haile-Selassie 85' M 6.70
11 P. Zinckernagel P. Zinckernagel M 6.70
9 H. Cuypers H. Cuypers F 6.70
Bench
27 Dylan Borso Dylan Borso 13' F 6.70
20 Jason Shokalook Jason Shokalook 18' F 6.30
4 Mbekezeli Mbokazi Mbekezeli Mbokazi D
22 M. Pineda M. Pineda 18' D 6.50
12 P. Dithejane P. Dithejane 37' F 6.60
35 S. Oregel S. Oregel 18' M 6.50
14 Viktor Radojević Viktor Radojević D
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-1-4-1
34
G 6.90
56 Matthew Dos Santos Matthew Dos Santos 73' D 6.90
6 Robert Voloder Robert Voloder 80' D 6.90
26
D 6.70
12 D. Nealis D. Nealis 1 ⚽ D 7.60
15 A. Mehmeti A. Mehmeti M 7.60
11 J. Ruvalcaba J. Ruvalcaba 1 ⚽ M 7.30
10 E. Forsberg E. Forsberg 1 👟 60' M 6.60
48 R. Donkor R. Donkor 1 👟 M 6.30
7 C. Cowell C. Cowell 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.30
16 J. Hall J. Hall 45' F 6.20
Bench
13 E. Choupo-Moting E. Choupo-Moting 1 ⚽ 53' F 6.90
4 G. Berggren G. Berggren 38' M 6.60
3 J. Marshall-Rutty J. Marshall-Rutty D
37 M. Sofo M. Sofo F
5 Omar Valencia Omar Valencia 25' D 6.20
79 Rafael Mosquera Rafael Mosquera 25' F 7.30
Best on the pitch
A. Mehmeti
A. Mehmeti
M · New
7.60
· 44 pass
D. Nealis
D. Nealis
D · New
7.60
1 ⚽
· 32 pass
Rafael Mosquera
Rafael Mosquera
F · New
7.30
1 shots · 11 pass
C. Cowell
C. Cowell
M · New
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
J. Ruvalcaba
J. Ruvalcaba
M · New
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 23 pass
T. D'Avilla
T. D'Avilla
M · Chicago
7.20
· 66 pass
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 98 5.50 — — — 30 27% — — —
A. Gutman D 98 6.50 — — — 51 39% 5 — —
J. Elliott D 98 6.30 — — 1 93 80% 3 — —
J. Waterman D 98 6.70 — — — 95 83% 1 — —
J. Dean D 80 6.70 — — — 41 35% 1 — —
T. D'Avilla M 80 7.20 — — — 66 58% 2 — —
A. Salétros M 80 7.20 — — — 64 59% 2 — —
Jonathan Bamba M 61 6.70 — — 1 27 17% 1 — —
M. Haile-Selassie M 85 6.70 — — 1 32 28% 2 1 —
P. Zinckernagel M 98 6.70 — — 2 38 29% 2 — —
H. Cuypers F 98 6.70 — — 2 19 13% — — —
Dylan Borso F 13 6.70 — — — 4 4% 1 — —
Jason Shokalook F 18 6.30 — — — — — — — —
M. Pineda D 18 6.50 — — — 8 7% — — —
P. Dithejane F 37 6.60 — — 1 2 2% — — —
S. Oregel M 18 6.50 — — — 6 5% 1 — —
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 98 6.90 — — — 30 14% — — —
Matthew Dos Santos D 73 6.90 — — — 31 21% 3 — —
Robert Voloder D 80 6.90 — — — 37 30% — 1 —
D 98 6.70 — — — 31 23% — — —
D. Nealis D 98 7.60 1 — — 32 27% 2 — —
A. Mehmeti M 98 7.60 — — — 44 38% 2 — —
J. Ruvalcaba M 98 7.30 1 — 1 23 18% — 1 —
E. Forsberg M 60 6.60 — 1 1 15 11% — — —
R. Donkor M 98 6.30 — 1 — 35 26% — — —
C. Cowell M 73 7.30 1 — 2 12 11% 1 — —
J. Hall F 45 6.20 — — — 4 4% — — —
E. Choupo-Moting F 53 6.90 1 — 2 9 6% — — —
G. Berggren M 38 6.60 — — 1 7 6% 2 — —
Omar Valencia D 25 6.20 — — — 5 5% 1 1 —
Rafael Mosquera F 25 7.30 — — 1 11 9% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
The final score was Chicago Fire 1–3 New York Red Bulls.
What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
The model assigned 66% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 17% to a draw, and 15% to an New York Red Bulls win.