Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union — pre-match prediction — MLS — October 15, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 29 October 15, 2026 02:30 Soldier Field, Chicago

Chicago Fire

#4 · 51 pts

1 – 3

Final score

Philadelphia Union

#6 · 46 pts

Maren Haile-Selassie (ast. Noah Allen) 44'

49' (ast. Bruno Damiani) Milan Iloski

55' (ast. Cavan Sullivan) Bruno Damiani

67' (ast. Jovan Lukic) Bruno Damiani

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Philadelphia Union a 55% win probability (draw 17%, Chicago Fire 27%). The final result was Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union. In 1 previous meetings, Chicago Fire have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Philadelphia Union.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.87

Actual xG

2.24

Saves

49%

Possession

51%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

Mbekezeli Mbokazi

34'

Jack Elliott

41'

⚽Maren Haile-Selassie · ast. Noah Allen

44'

Jack Elliott

45'+1

↕ Jonathan Bamba / Andreas Hanche-Olsen

45'

49'

ast. Bruno Damiani · Milan Iloski⚽

55'

ast. Cavan Sullivan · Bruno Damiani⚽

57'

Indiana Vassilev / Jesus Bueno ↕

67'

ast. Jovan Lukic · Bruno Damiani⚽

↕ Robert Lewandowski / Philip Zinckernagel

68'

↕ Johan Arath Gomez / Puso Dithejane

68'

↕ Jonathan Dean / Leonardo Barroso

68'

↕ Anton Saletros / Sergio Oregel

72'

80'

Ezekiel Kwame Alladoh / Bruno Damiani ↕

80'

Benjamin Bender / Cavan Sullivan ↕

85'

Indiana Vassilev

Philip Zinckernagel

88'

90'+2

Japhet Sery Larsen / Quinn Sullivan ↕

90'+2

Malik Jakupovic / Milan Iloski ↕

90'+3

Neil Pierre

Pre-match prediction

27.14%

Chicago

17.37%

55.48%

Philadelphia ←

we assigned to the actual result (Philadelphia Union) 55.48% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Chicago

1.81

0.87

-0.94

Philadelphia

3.02

2.24

-0.78

Philadelphia Union dominated by xG (2.24 vs 0.87). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	70
2	New England Revolution	31	55
3	Inter Miami	31	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	51
5	Charlotte	31	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	38
11	Toronto FC	31	36
12	New York City FC	31	35
13	DC United	31	33
14	Atlanta United FC	31	30
15	CF Montreal	31	25

Lineups

Chicago Fire 4-4-2

C. Brady G 6.03

N. Allen 1 👟 D 6.62

M. Mbokazi D 5.51

J. Elliott 45' D 4.71

J. Dean 68' D 5.90

J. Bamba 45' M 5.61

M. Pineda M 5.97

A. Salétros 72' M 5.35

J. Gómez 68' M 5.72

M. Haile-Selassie 1 ⚽ F 7.93

R. Lewandowski 68' F 6.49

Bench

A. Gutman D 0.00

A. Hanche-Olsen 45' D 5.93

D. Poręba M 0.00

J. Cohen G 0.00

J. Gal G 0.00

Leonardo Barroso 22' D 5.83

P. Dithejane 22' F 6.69

P. Zinckernagel 22' F 6.40

S. Oregel 18' M 5.79

Philadelphia Union 4-4-2

A. Blake G 6.59

K. Wagner D 6.57

N. Harriel D 6.78

Neil Pierre D 6.10

F. Westfield D 6.39

Q. Sullivan 89' M 6.32

J. Lukić 1 👟 M 7.32

J. Bueno 57' M 5.97

Cavan Sullivan 1 👟 80' M 7.22

B. Damiani 2 ⚽ 1 👟 80' F 9.35

M. Iloski 1 ⚽ 89' F 8.15

Bench

A. Bedoya M 0.00

A. Rick G 0.00

B. Bender 10' M 6.24

E. Alladoh 10' F 6.40

G. Martínez D 0.00

I. Vassilev 33' M 6.07

J. Rafanello M 0.00

J. Sery Larsen 1' D 0.00

M. Jakupovic 1' F 0.00

Best on the pitch

B. Damiani

F · Philadelphia

9.35

2 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 27 pass

M. Iloski

F · Philadelphia

8.15

1 ⚽

5 shots · 34 pass

M. Haile-Selassie

F · Chicago

7.93

1 ⚽

2 shots · 23 pass

J. Lukić

M · Philadelphia

7.32

1 👟

1 shots · 44 pass

Cavan Sullivan

M · Philadelphia

7.22

1 👟

4 shots · 28 pass

N. Harriel

D · Philadelphia

6.78

· 42 pass

Chicago Fire — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
C. Brady	G	90	6.03	—	—	0	29	17%	0	—	—
N. Allen	D	90	6.62	—	1	1	40	32%	1	—	—
M. Mbokazi	D	90	5.51	—	—	0	57	45%	1	1	—
J. Elliott	D	45	4.71	—	—	0	24	17%	0	—	1
J. Dean	D	68	5.90	—	—	0	20	15%	0	—	—
J. Bamba	M	45	5.61	—	—	0	14	12%	1	—	—
M. Pineda	M	90	5.97	—	—	0	61	46%	1	—	—
A. Salétros	M	72	5.35	—	—	0	28	23%	0	—	—
J. Gómez	M	68	5.72	—	—	0	15	10%	1	—	—
M. Haile-Selassie	F	90	7.93	1	—	2	23	16%	1	—	—
R. Lewandowski	F	68	6.49	—	—	1	15	11%	0	—	—
A. Hanche-Olsen	D	45	5.93	—	—	1	38	26%	1	—	—
Leonardo Barroso	D	22	5.83	—	—	0	12	9%	0	—	—
P. Dithejane	F	22	6.69	—	—	1	6	5%	0	—	—
P. Zinckernagel	F	22	6.40	—	—	2	9	3%	1	1	—
S. Oregel	M	18	5.79	—	—	0	14	12%	0	—	—

Philadelphia Union — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
A. Blake	G	90	6.59	—	—	0	25	17%	0	—	—
K. Wagner	D	90	6.57	—	—	0	53	36%	1	—	—
N. Harriel	D	90	6.78	—	—	0	42	39%	0	—	—
Neil Pierre	D	90	6.10	—	—	0	31	21%	1	1	—
F. Westfield	D	90	6.39	—	—	3	36	21%	1	—	—
Q. Sullivan	M	89	6.32	—	—	2	46	33%	1	—	—
J. Lukić	M	90	7.32	—	1	1	44	39%	3	—	—
J. Bueno	M	57	5.97	—	—	1	20	13%	2	—	—
Cavan Sullivan	M	80	7.22	—	1	4	28	21%	0	—	—
B. Damiani	F	80	9.35	2	1	3	27	20%	1	—	—
M. Iloski	F	89	8.15	1	—	5	34	26%	0	—	—
B. Bender	M	10	6.24	—	—	0	5	4%	0	—	—
E. Alladoh	F	10	6.40	—	—	0	4	1%	0	—	—
I. Vassilev	M	33	6.07	—	—	0	16	14%	0	1	—
J. Sery Larsen	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
M. Jakupovic	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

The final score was Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union.

What did the model predict before Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?

The model assigned 27% probability to a Chicago Fire win, 17% to a draw, and 55% to an Philadelphia Union win.