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Chicago Fire - Vancouver Whitecaps

MLS October 07, 2026 02:30
Chicago Fire
#5 · 39 pts
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
#1 · 49 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.61%
Win
Chicago Fire
22.01%
Draw
35.38%
Win
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.06
Expected xG
1.9

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (7.82%)
1X2 Result
1 43%
X 22%
2 35%
Double Chance
1X 65%
X2 57%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 68%
✓ 78.2% hit rate (101 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Chicago Fire a 42% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 35% for Vancouver Whitecaps. Expected goals are 2.1 for Chicago Fire and 1.9 for Vancouver Whitecaps (total 4.0), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 7.82% probability.

Season Stats

Chicago Fire
6W 4D 5L
Vancouver Whitecaps
7W 3D 5L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
2.0
1.8
Conceded
1.1
5.0
Shots OT
5.9
4.3
Corners
5.7
50%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
80%
80%
O 2.5
60%
87%
BTTS
47%
7%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in MLS. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
30%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Chicago Fire
6W 1D 3L · at home
Vancouver Whitecaps
5W 3D 2L · away
1.8
gls/g
2.0
1.2
Conceded
1.1
60%
Win %
50%
70%
Win or Draw
80%
80%
O 1.5
80%
70%
O 2.5
50%
30%
O 3.5
30%
70%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
40%
0%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Chicago Fire Vancouver Whitecaps →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.9% 3.6% 3.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4%
1 3.9% 7.4% 7.1% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8%
2 4.0% 7.7% 7.3% 4.6% 2.2% 0.8%
3 2.8% 5.3% 5.0% 3.2% 1.5% 0.6%
4 1.4% 2.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
L Nashville SC 3–0
L New England Revolution 1–2
D Inter Miami 1–1
D Toronto FC 4–4
D Seattle Sounders 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 22%
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps
W Real Salt Lake 0–3
L Austin 1–2
W Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0
L St. Louis City 1–3
W Sporting Kansas City 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 47%

Playing profile

Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
Attack
42
Defence
52
Form
46
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps
Attack
55
Defence
78
Form
72
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Eastern Conference

# Team G Pts
1 Nashville SC Nashville SC 26 57
2 New England Revolution New England Revolution 26 46
3 Inter Miami Inter Miami 26 46
4 Charlotte Charlotte 26 43
5 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 25 39
6 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 26 36
7 Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 26 34
8 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 26 33
9 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 25 33
10 New York City FC New York City FC 26 32
11 DC United DC United 25 29
12 Toronto FC Toronto FC 26 29
13 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 26 26
14 Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 26 26
15 CF Montreal CF Montreal 26 21

What's at stake · Eastern Conference

Top 2 advance to the next round

Chicago Fire Vancouver Whitecaps
Current #5 #1
→ Chicago Fire #5 #1
→ Draw #5 #1
→ Vancouver Whitecaps #5 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
The model gives Chicago Fire a 42% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 35% for an Vancouver Whitecaps win.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 2.1, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.9 (total 4.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.82%.