Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 3
April 30, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Cienciano
N. Bandiera
(ast. G. Barreto)
30'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cienciano a 59% win probability (draw 23%, Atletico-MG 16%). The final result was Cienciano 1–0 Atletico-MG. In 3 previous meetings, Cienciano have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Atletico-MG.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
5
5
Shots on target
2
1.47
Actual xG
0.72
0
Saves
4
52%
Possession
48%
5
Corners
0
16
Tackles
6
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽N. Bandiera
· ast. G. Barreto
30'
46'
A. Minda
/
Igor Gomes
46'
Bernard
/
Alexsander
49'
A. Preciado
56'
Gustavo Scarpa
58'
A. Preciado
58'
A. Preciado
K. Becerra
/ A. Yovera
64'
M. Martinich
/ H. Caparo
70'
79'
Mateus Iseppe
/
Dudu
79'
Caua
/
Reinier
79'
Luis Gustavo
/
Gustavo Scarpa
A. Hohberg
/ J. Romagnoli
89'
N. Bandiera
/ R. Aguilar
89'
C. Garces
/ M. Succar
89'
Pre-match prediction
59.99%
Cienciano ←
23.1%
X
16.91%
Atletico-MG
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Cienciano)
59.99%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.06
1.47
-0.59
0.76
0.72
-0.04
Cienciano dominated by xG (1.47 vs 0.72).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
31
G
16
M. Martinich
70'
D
M. Martinich
70'
D
3
K. Becerra
64'
D
K. Becerra
64'
D
4
M. Amondarain
D
M. Amondarain
D
13
C. Núñez
D
C. Núñez
D
29
A. Robles
M
A. Robles
M
88
G. Barreto
1 👟
M
G. Barreto
1 👟
M
11
N. Bandiera
1 ⚽
89'
M
N. Bandiera
1 ⚽
89'
M
10
A. Hohberg
89'
M
A. Hohberg
89'
M
7
C. Souza
M
C. Souza
M
21
C. Garcés
89'
F
C. Garcés
89'
F
Bench
37
Á. Rojas
M
Á. Rojas
M
27
A. Yovera
26'
D
A. Yovera
26'
D
8
G. Aguirre
M
G. Aguirre
M
39
H. Caparó
20'
M
H. Caparó
20'
M
19
M. Succar
1'
F
M. Succar
1'
F
17
R. Sandoval
F
R. Sandoval
F
14
S. Cavero
D
S. Cavero
D
22
G
36
D
6
Junior Alonso
D
Junior Alonso
D
3
D
23
Ángelo Preciado
58'
D
Ángelo Preciado
58'
D
5
Alexsander
45'
M
Alexsander
45'
M
25
T. Pérez
M
T. Pérez
M
17
Igor Gomes
45'
M
Igor Gomes
45'
M
92
Dudu
79'
F
Dudu
79'
F
19
Reinier
79'
F
Reinier
79'
F
10
Gustavo Scarpa
79'
F
Gustavo Scarpa
79'
F
Bench
27
Alan Minda
45'
F
Alan Minda
45'
F
11
Bernard
45'
M
Bernard
45'
M
Best on the pitch
N. Bandiera
M · Cienciano
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 9 pass
C. Núñez
D · Cienciano
8.00
· 43 pass
G. Barreto
M · Cienciano
7.90
1 👟
· 31 pass
M. Amondarain
D · Cienciano
7.70
· 54 pass
C. Souza
M · Cienciano
7.60
1 shots
· 29 pass
G · Atletico-MG
7.50
· 39 pass
Cienciano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| M. Martinich | D | 70 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Becerra | D | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Amondarain | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 54 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Núñez | D | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 43 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Robles | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 34% | — | — | — |
| G. Barreto | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | 1 | — | 31 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Bandiera | M | 89 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 9 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Hohberg | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | 5 | 25 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Souza | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 24% | — | — | — |
| C. Garcés | F | 89 | 5.90 | — | — | 3 | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Yovera | D | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Caparó | M | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Succar | F | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Atletico-MG — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — | |
| Junior Alonso | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Ángelo Preciado | D | 58 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Alexsander | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Pérez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 79 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Reinier | F | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Scarpa | F | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 28% | — | 1 | — |
| Alan Minda | F | 45 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Bernard | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
The final score was Cienciano 1–0 Atletico-MG.
What did the model predict before Cienciano vs Atletico-MG?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Cienciano win, 23% to a draw, and 16% to an Atletico-MG win.