Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 15, 2026 00:00
Maximiliano Gómez
48'
Sebastián Coates
(ast. Nicolas Lopez)
64'
Nicolas Lopez
(ast. Agustín Dos Santos)
87'
80'
Brayan Rovira
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Club Nacional a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 29%). The final result was Club Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima. In 1 previous meetings, Club Nacional have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Deportes Tolima.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
3
1.70
Actual xG
0.40
2
Saves
4
42%
Possession
58%
6
Corners
2
13
Tackles
10
3
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
14'
Luis Sandoval
Luciano Boggio
37'
41'
Daniel Pedrozo
45'+3
Brayan Rovira
Paolo Calione
/ Maximiliano Silvera
46'
⚽Maximiliano Gómez
48'
62'
Edwar López
/
Adrián Parra
62'
Juan Torres
/
Daniel Pedrozo
⚽Sebastián Coates
· ast. Nicolas Lopez
64'
76'
Shean Barbosa
/
Cristian Trujillo
76'
Neifer Sanchez
/
Luis Sandoval
77'
Sebastián Guzmán
/
Junior Hernández
Agustín Rogel
78'
80'
Brayan Rovira⚽
Nicolás Lodeiro
/ Agustín Dos Santos
85'
⚽Nicolas Lopez
· ast. Agustín Dos Santos
87'
90'+2
Edwar López
90'+3
Sebastián Guzmán
Nicolas Lopez
/ Pável Núñez
90'
Nicolas Lopez
90'
Luciano Boggio
/ Luciano Gonzalez
90'
Pre-match prediction
42.82%
Club ←
27.34%
X
29.84%
Deportes
we assigned to the actual result (Club Nacional)
42.82%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.47
1.70
+0.23
1.15
0.40
-0.75
Club Nacional dominated by xG (1.70 vs 0.40).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Luis Mejía
G
15
P. Calione
45'
D
P. Calione
45'
D
4
S. Coates
1 ⚽
D
S. Coates
1 ⚽
D
2
Agustín Rogel
D
23
Lucas Rodríguez
M
77
Nicolás Rodríguez
M
14
Nicolás Lodeiro
85'
M
6
Luciano Boggio
M
30
B. Barcia
M
9
Maximiliano Gómez
1 ⚽
F
7
Nico López
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Nico López
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
10
Agustín Dos Santos
1 👟
10'
M
34
F. Bais
M
F. Bais
M
25
Ignacio Suárez
G
5
J. Pintado
D
J. Pintado
D
19
Juan De los Santos
F
39
Luciano González
1'
M
11
Maximiliano Silvera
50'
F
18
Pável Núñez
3'
F
27
Tomas Veron Lupi
F
32
Tomás Viera
D
1
G
4
D. Pedrozo
62'
D
D. Pedrozo
62'
D
2
A. Angulo
D
A. Angulo
D
3
J. Angulo
D
J. Angulo
D
20
J. Hernández
77'
M
J. Hernández
77'
M
80
B. Rovira
1 ⚽
M
B. Rovira
1 ⚽
M
6
C. Trujillo
76'
M
C. Trujillo
76'
M
17
C. Arrieta
M
C. Arrieta
M
24
A. Parra
62'
F
A. Parra
62'
F
7
J. González
F
J. González
F
9
L. Sandoval
76'
F
L. Sandoval
76'
F
Bench
28
E. López
33'
F
E. López
33'
F
33
J. Mosquera
D
J. Mosquera
D
15
J. Nieto
M
J. Nieto
M
10
J. Torres
33'
M
J. Torres
33'
M
5
Juan Mera
D
Juan Mera
D
32
S. Guzmán
18'
M
S. Guzmán
18'
M
30
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
19'
D
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
19'
D
Best on the pitch
Nico López
F · Club
9.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 29 pass
Maximiliano Gómez
F · Club
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 9 pass
B. Rovira
M · Deportes
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 58 pass
S. Coates
D · Club
7.50
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 42 pass
Agustín Dos Santos
M · Club
7.20
1 👟
· 1 pass
Nicolás Rodríguez
M · Club
7.20
· 30 pass
Club Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Mejía | G | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 9% | — | — | — |
| P. Calione | D | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| S. Coates | D | 95 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 3 | 42 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Rogel | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 14% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Rodríguez | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolás Rodríguez | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolás Lodeiro | M | 85 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Boggio | M | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. Barcia | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Maximiliano Gómez | F | 95 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 9 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Nico López | F | 92 | 9.60 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 24% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Agustín Dos Santos | M | 10 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Luciano González | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Silvera | F | 50 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Pável Núñez | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| D. Pedrozo | D | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Angulo | D | 95 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 31% | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | D | 95 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Hernández | M | 77 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Rovira | M | 95 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 58 | 52% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Trujillo | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | — | — | — |
| C. Arrieta | M | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Parra | F | 62 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. González | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | — | 1 | — |
| E. López | F | 33 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Torres | M | 33 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| S. Guzmán | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| S. P. Barbosa Gomez | D | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Club Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The final score was Club Nacional 3–1 Deportes Tolima.
What did the model predict before Club Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Club Nacional win, 27% to a draw, and 29% to an Deportes Tolima win.