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Club Nacional - Progreso

Primera División August 02, 2026 23:30
Club Nacional
#7 · 22 pts
vs
Progreso
#15 · 10 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
53.22%
Win
Club Nacional
31.0%
Draw
15.78%
Win
Progreso
1.15
Expected xG
0.44

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (23.98%)
1X2 Result ✓ 72.2% hit rate (18 picks)
1 53%
X 31%
2 16%
Double Chance ✓ 88.9% hit rate (18 picks)
1X 84%
X2 47%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 34%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Club Nacional a 53% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 15% for Progreso. Expected goals are 1.2 for Club Nacional and 0.4 for Progreso (total 1.6), with a 65% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 23.98% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Club Nacional have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Progreso.

Season Stats

Club Nacional
7W 1D 7L
Progreso
3W 2D 10L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
0.8
1.5
Conceded
1.5
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
67%
80%
O 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
47%
27%
Clean Sht
7%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
40%
BTTS
Club Nacional
5W 1D 4L · at home
Progreso
2W 2D 6L · away
1.5
gls/g
0.7
0.8
Conceded
1.4
50%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
40%
70%
O 1.5
70%
50%
O 2.5
30%
10%
O 3.5
10%
40%
BTTS
40%
40%
Clean Sht
10%
20%
Failed to Score
50%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Club Nacional Progreso →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 20.4% 8.9% 2.0% 0.3% — —
1 23.5% 10.3% 2.3% 0.3% — —
2 13.5% 5.9% 1.3% 0.2% — —
3 5.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% — —
4 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% — — —
5 0.3% 0.2% — — — —

Recent form

Club Nacional Club Nacional
L Wanderers 1–2
D Danubio 0–0
W Juventud 2–1
L Deportivo Maldonado 3–0
W Albion FC 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Progreso Progreso
W Deportivo Maldonado 1–0
L Wanderers 2–0
L Albion FC 1–2
W Danubio 1–2
L Atletico Torque 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 14%

Playing profile

Club Nacional Club Nacional
Attack
34
Defence
69
Form
57
Progreso Progreso
Attack
19
Defence
64
Form
43
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Club Nacional
0
Draw
0
Progreso
22 Feb 2026 Primera División 1–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 15 31
2 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 15 29
3 Albion FC Albion FC 15 28
4 Penarol Penarol 15 27
5 Central Espanol Central Espanol 15 24
6 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 15 23
7 Club Nacional Club Nacional 15 22
8 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 15 21
9 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 15 20
10 Wanderers Wanderers 15 20
11 Danubio Danubio 15 18
12 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 15 17
13 Boston River Boston River 15 17
14 Juventud Juventud 15 15
15 Progreso Progreso 15 10
16 Cerro Cerro 15 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Club Nacional vs Progreso?
The model gives Club Nacional a 53% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 15% for an Progreso win.
How many goals are expected in Club Nacional vs Progreso?
Expected goals: Club Nacional 1.2, Progreso 0.4 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 65%.
What is the most likely score in Club Nacional vs Progreso?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 23.98%.