Liga MX
· Clausura - 13
April 05, 2026 01:00
A. Avila
(ast. Jhojan Julio)
76'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 50% win probability (draw 25%, Club Queretaro 24%). The final result was Club Queretaro 1–0 Toluca. In 1 previous meetings, Club Queretaro have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
5
2.19
Actual xG
1.39
5
Saves
4
24%
Possession
76%
3
Corners
7
15
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Lucas Abascia
45'+2
58'
J. Gallardo
/
M. Isais
59'
A. Vega
/
Helinho
J. Cazares
/ F. Venegas
62'
72'
S. Cordova
/
J. Diaz
⚽A. Avila
· ast. Jhojan Julio
76'
79'
F. Rossi
/
J. Angulo
79'
S. Simon
/
D. Barbosa
Jhojan Julio
/ C. Villanueva
85'
S. Homenchenko
/ B. Parra
85'
A. Avila
/ L. Rodriguez
90'+4
M. Coronel
/ J. Robles
90'+4
Bayron Duarte
90'+7
90'+7
Nicolás Castro
Pre-match prediction
24.21%
Club ←
25.4%
X
50.39%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Club Queretaro)
24.21%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.95
2.19
+1.24
1.63
1.39
-0.24
Club Queretaro dominated by xG (2.19 vs 1.39).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
27
Daniel Parra
D
2
L. Abascia
D
9
D
22
Bayron Duarte
D
37
M. Coronel
89'
M
6
S. Homenchenko
85'
M
S. Homenchenko
85'
M
4
C. Garcia
M
7
Jhojan Julio
1 👟
85'
M
31
A. Ávila
1 ⚽
89'
F
A. Ávila
1 ⚽
89'
F
190
J. Cazares
62'
F
Bench
17
F. Venegas
28'
D
14
J. Unjanque
M
10
Lucas Rodríguez
1'
M
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
6
D
2
D. Barbosa
79'
D
D. Barbosa
79'
D
17
Mauricio Isais
58'
M
Mauricio Isais
58'
M
5
M
8
N. Castro
M
N. Castro
M
11
Helinho
59'
M
Helinho
59'
M
29
J. Díaz
72'
F
J. Díaz
72'
F
26
F
10
J. Angulo
79'
F
J. Angulo
79'
F
Bench
3
Antonio Briseño
D
Antonio Briseño
D
9
A. Vega
31'
F
A. Vega
31'
F
27
Franco Rossi
11'
F
Franco Rossi
11'
F
20
J. Gallardo
32'
D
J. Gallardo
32'
D
13
Luan
D
19
Santiago Simón
11'
M
Santiago Simón
11'
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
18'
M
Sebastián Córdova
18'
M
33
Victor Arteaga
M
Victor Arteaga
M
Best on the pitch
Bayron Duarte
D · Club
8.00
· 21 pass
Luis García
G · Toluca
7.90
· 30 pass
G · Club
7.70
· 24 pass
D · Club
7.70
· 20 pass
D · Toluca
7.70
· 96 pass
A. Ávila
F · Club
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 21 pass
Club Queretaro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Daniel Parra | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Abascia | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| Bayron Duarte | D | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 7 | 1 | — |
| M. Coronel | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Homenchenko | M | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Garcia | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Jhojan Julio | M | 85 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Ávila | F | 89 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Cazares | F | 62 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| F. Venegas | D | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Rodríguez | M | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 88 | 84% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 96 | 90% | 1 | — | — | |
| D. Barbosa | D | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| Mauricio Isais | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 91 | 88% | — | — | — | |
| N. Castro | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 84 | 74% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Helinho | M | 59 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | F | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — | |
| J. Angulo | F | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Vega | F | 31 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
The final score was Club Queretaro 1–0 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
The model assigned 24% probability to a Club Queretaro win, 25% to a draw, and 50% to an Toluca win.