Liga MX
· Clausura - 13
April 05, 2026 01:00
A. Avila
(ast. Jhojan Julio)
76'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 50% win probability (draw 25%, Club Queretaro 24%). The final result was Club Queretaro 1–0 Toluca. In 2 previous meetings, Club Queretaro have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
5
2.19
Actual xG
1.39
5
Saves
4
24%
Possession
76%
3
Corners
7
15
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Lucas Abascia
45'+2
58'
J. Gallardo
/
M. Isais
59'
A. Vega
/
Helinho
J. Cazares
/ F. Venegas
62'
72'
S. Cordova
/
J. Diaz
⚽A. Avila
· ast. Jhojan Julio
76'
79'
F. Rossi
/
J. Angulo
79'
S. Simon
/
D. Barbosa
Jhojan Julio
/ C. Villanueva
85'
S. Homenchenko
/ B. Parra
85'
A. Avila
/ L. Rodriguez
90'+4
M. Coronel
/ J. Robles
90'+4
Bayron Duarte
90'+7
90'+7
Nicolás Castro
Pre-match prediction
24.21%
Club ←
25.4%
X
50.39%
Toluca
we assigned to the actual result (Club Queretaro)
24.21%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.95
2.19
+1.24
1.63
1.39
-0.24
Club Queretaro dominated by xG (2.19 vs 1.39).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
27
D. Parra
D
D. Parra
D
2
L. Abascia
D
L. Abascia
D
9
D
22
B. Duarte
D
B. Duarte
D
37
M. Coronel
89'
M
M. Coronel
89'
M
6
S. Homenchenko
85'
M
S. Homenchenko
85'
M
4
Carlo Adriano
M
Carlo Adriano
M
7
J. Julio
1 👟
85'
M
J. Julio
1 👟
85'
M
31
A. Ávila
1 ⚽
89'
F
A. Ávila
1 ⚽
89'
F
190
Juan Pablo Cázares
62'
F
Juan Pablo Cázares
62'
F
Bench
17
F. Venegas
28'
D
F. Venegas
28'
D
14
Jean Unjanque
M
Jean Unjanque
M
10
L. Rodríguez
1'
M
L. Rodríguez
1'
M
22
L. García
G
L. García
G
25
Everardo López
D
Everardo López
D
6
D
2
D. Barbosa
79'
D
D. Barbosa
79'
D
17
M. Isaís
58'
M
M. Isaís
58'
M
5
M
8
N. Castro
M
N. Castro
M
11
Helinho
59'
M
Helinho
59'
M
29
J. Díaz
72'
F
J. Díaz
72'
F
26
F
10
J. Angulo
79'
F
J. Angulo
79'
F
Bench
3
A. Briseño
D
A. Briseño
D
9
A. Vega
31'
F
A. Vega
31'
F
27
F. Rossi
11'
F
F. Rossi
11'
F
20
Jesús Gallardo
32'
D
Jesús Gallardo
32'
D
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
19
Santiago Simón
11'
M
Santiago Simón
11'
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
18'
M
Sebastián Córdova
18'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
Best on the pitch
B. Duarte
D · Club
8.00
· 21 pass
L. García
G · Toluca
7.90
· 30 pass
G · Club
7.70
· 24 pass
D · Club
7.70
· 20 pass
D · Toluca
7.70
· 96 pass
A. Ávila
F · Club
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 21 pass
Club Queretaro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| D. Parra | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Abascia | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 20 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| B. Duarte | D | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 7 | 1 | — |
| M. Coronel | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Homenchenko | M | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Carlo Adriano | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Julio | M | 85 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Ávila | F | 89 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Cázares | F | 62 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 4% | — | — | — |
| F. Venegas | D | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| L. Rodríguez | M | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. García | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Everardo López | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 88 | 84% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 96 | 90% | 1 | — | — | |
| D. Barbosa | D | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Isaís | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | — | — | — |
| M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 91 | 88% | — | — | — | |
| N. Castro | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 84 | 74% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Helinho | M | 59 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 30 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | F | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — | |
| J. Angulo | F | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Vega | F | 31 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Rossi | F | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Gallardo | D | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
The final score was Club Queretaro 1–0 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
The model assigned 24% probability to a Club Queretaro win, 25% to a draw, and 50% to an Toluca win.