Liga MX
· Apertura - 5
August 22, 2026 05:10
S. Homenchenko
(ast. D. Parra)
79'
65'
Helinho
(pen.)
90'
F. Vinas
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 36% win probability (draw 30%, Club Queretaro 32%). The final result was Club Queretaro 1–2 Toluca. In 2 previous meetings, Club Queretaro have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
3
1.70
Actual xG
1.47
50%
Possession
50%
7
Corners
6
Match Events
19'
A. Vega
31'
D. Barbosa
45'+5
F. Arce
⚽A. Avila
(missed pen.)
45'+6
46'
N. Castro
/
A. Vega
46'
B. A. Garcia Caprizo
/
F. Arce
A. Avila
55'
Paulo Victor
/ I. Benito
58'
A. Alcala
/ M. Coronel
58'
65'
Helinho⚽
74'
Luan
/
Helinho
74'
J. Diaz Price
/
J. Angulo
74'
N. Castro
B. Duarte
/ W. Madrid
74'
C. Garcia
/ J. Martinez
74'
⚽S. Homenchenko
· ast. D. Parra
79'
I. Benito
81'
85'
V. Guzman
/
Bruno Mendez
D. Parra
/ E. Perez
90'+3
S. Homenchenko
90'
90'
(pen.)
F. Vinas⚽
Pre-match prediction
32.84%
Club
30.82%
X
36.34%
Toluca ←
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
36.34%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.44
1.70
+0.26
1.23
1.47
+0.24
xG dominance was balanced (1.70 – 1.47).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
The final score was Club Queretaro 1–2 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Club Queretaro vs Toluca?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Club Queretaro win, 30% to a draw, and 36% to an Toluca win.