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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Congo DR - Sierra Leone

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 11, 2026 18:00
Congo DR
#1 · 6 pts
vs
Sierra Leone
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.39%
Win
Congo DR
33.39%
Draw
24.22%
Win
Sierra Leone
1.02
Expected xG
0.51

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (16.06%)
1X2 Result
1 42%
X 33%
2 24%
Double Chance
1X 76%
X2 58%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Congo DR a 42% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 24% for Sierra Leone. Expected goals are 1.0 for Congo DR and 0.5 for Sierra Leone (total 1.5), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.06% probability.

Season Stats

Congo DR
2W 0D 0L
Sierra Leone
0W 0D 2L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.0
0.5
Conceded
2.0
4.5
Shots OT
1.5
2.5
Corners
2.5
54%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Score Matrix

↕ Congo DR Sierra Leone →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 21.8% 11.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% —
1 22.2% 11.2% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% —
2 11.3% 5.7% 1.4% 0.2% — —
3 3.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% — —
4 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% — — —
5 0.2% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Congo DR Congo DR
W Zimbabwe 1–2
W Equatorial Guinea 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Sierra Leone Sierra Leone
L Equatorial Guinea 1–0
L Zimbabwe 2–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Congo DR Congo DR
Attack
29
Defence
66
Form
53
Sierra Leone Sierra Leone
Attack
22
Defence
63
Form
9
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group E

# Team G Pts
1 Congo DR Congo DR 2 6
2 Zimbabwe Zimbabwe 2 3
3 Equatorial Guinea Equatorial Guinea 2 3
4 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 2 0

What's at stake · Group E

Top 2 advance to the next round

Congo DR Sierra Leone
Current #1 #4
→ Congo DR #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #4
→ Sierra Leone #1 #4

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Congo DR vs Sierra Leone?
The model gives Congo DR a 42% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 24% for an Sierra Leone win.
How many goals are expected in Congo DR vs Sierra Leone?
Expected goals: Congo DR 1.0, Sierra Leone 0.5 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Congo DR vs Sierra Leone?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.06%.