Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 3
May 01, 2026 02:00
Gustavo Henrique
(ast. R. Garro)
11'
J. Lingard
(ast. Yuri Alberto)
25'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Corinthians a 53% win probability (draw 29%, Penarol 16%). The final result was Corinthians 2–0 Penarol. In 1 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Penarol.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
5
4
Shots on target
2
2.05
Actual xG
0.31
2
Saves
2
78%
Possession
22%
5
Corners
4
17
Tackles
17
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Gustavo Henrique
· ast. R. Garro
11'
⚽J. Lingard
· ast. Yuri Alberto
25'
57'
L. Angulo
/
G. Togni
Andre
/ Kaio Cesar
61'
68'
F. Alvez
73'
S. Muhlethaler
/
L. Umpierrez
73'
K. Rodriguez
/
E. Remedi
76'
Jesus Trindade
Breno Bidon
/ A. Carrillo
80'
R. Garro
/ Z. Labyad
80'
80'
A. Hernandez
/
M. Arezo
81'
F. Gonzalez
/
L. Angulo
Yuri Alberto
/ Vitinho
88'
J. Lingard
/ Pedro Raul
88'
Pre-match prediction
53.78%
Corinthians ←
29.6%
X
16.61%
Penarol
we assigned to the actual result (Corinthians)
53.78%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.28
2.05
+0.77
0.53
0.31
-0.22
Corinthians dominated by xG (2.05 vs 0.31).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
21
Matheus Bidu
D
Matheus Bidu
D
13
Gustavo Henrique
1 ⚽
D
Gustavo Henrique
1 ⚽
D
3
Gabriel Paulista
D
Gabriel Paulista
D
2
Matheuzinho
D
Matheuzinho
D
14
Raniele
M
Raniele
M
49
André Luiz
60'
M
André Luiz
60'
M
77
J. Lingard
1 ⚽
88'
M
J. Lingard
1 ⚽
88'
M
8
R. Garro
1 👟
80'
M
R. Garro
1 👟
80'
M
7
Breno Bidon
80'
M
Breno Bidon
80'
M
9
Yuri Alberto
1 👟
88'
F
Yuri Alberto
1 👟
88'
F
Bench
29
Allan
M
Allan
M
5
André Ramalho
D
André Ramalho
D
61
Dieguinho
M
Dieguinho
M
51
Kauê
G
Kauê
G
23
Matheus Pereira
M
Matheus Pereira
M
20
Pedro Milans
D
Pedro Milans
D
11
Vitinho
5'
F
29
Washington Aguerre
G
93
Diego Laxalt
D
3
Mauricio Lemos
D
22
Facundo Alvez
D
Facundo Alvez
D
25
Matías González
D
32
Leandro Umpierrez
73'
M
21
Jesús Trindade
M
5
E. Remedi
73'
M
23
Gastón Togni
57'
F
19
M. Arezo
80'
F
8
Nicolás Fernández
F
Bench
11
Abel Hernández
13'
F
36
Brian Barboza
D
9
Facundo Batista
F
80
F. Gonzalez
12'
M
14
Kevin Rodríguez
20'
D
77
Luis Miguel Angulo
24'
F
Luis Miguel Angulo
24'
F
Best on the pitch
Gustavo Henrique
D · Corinthians
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 91 pass
Raniele
M · Corinthians
7.90
· 66 pass
Matheus Bidu
D · Corinthians
7.60
· 68 pass
Yuri Alberto
F · Corinthians
7.60
1 👟
· 17 pass
Matheuzinho
D · Corinthians
7.50
1 shots
· 60 pass
Gabriel Paulista
D · Corinthians
7.30
1 shots
· 104 pass
Corinthians — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 93 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 68 | 61% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 93 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 91 | 85% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 104 | 96% | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 93 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 51% | 3 | — | — |
| Raniele | M | 93 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 66 | 59% | 4 | — | — |
| André Luiz | M | 60 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 15% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Lingard | M | 88 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 41 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Garro | M | 80 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 4 | 51 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Breno Bidon | M | 80 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 88 | 7.60 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Aguerre | G | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Diego Laxalt | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Mauricio Lemos | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Facundo Alvez | D | 93 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Matías González | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 4% | 5 | — | — |
| Leandro Umpierrez | M | 73 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Trindade | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Remedi | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Gastón Togni | F | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 93 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Abel Hernández | F | 13 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Gonzalez | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Rodríguez | D | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Luis Miguel Angulo | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Corinthians vs Penarol?
The final score was Corinthians 2–0 Penarol.
What did the model predict before Corinthians vs Penarol?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Corinthians win, 29% to a draw, and 16% to an Penarol win.