Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 21
July 31, 2026 02:30
66'
(ast. Gerson)
Matheus Pereira
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 45% win probability (draw 25%, Coritiba 28%). The final result was Coritiba 0–1 Cruzeiro. In 1 previous meetings, Coritiba have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Cruzeiro.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
4
0.97
Actual xG
2.32
3
Saves
2
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
2
7
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Thiago Santos
37'
Thiago Santos
/ Tissi
54'
60'
Kenji
/
Felipe Morais
Pedro Rocha
/ Rodrigo Rodrigues
65'
Bruno Melo
/ Felipe Jonatan
65'
66'
ast. Gerson ·
Matheus Pereira⚽
70'
Marquinhos
/
K. Arroyo
70'
Matheus Henrique
/
Gerson
Breno Lopes
/ Keno
79'
S. Gomez
/ B. Ocampo
79'
85'
Bruno Rodrigues
/
Kaio Jorge
86'
L. Villalba
/
G. Rojas
90'+2
Matheus Henrique
Pre-match prediction
28.24%
Coritiba
25.84%
X
45.92%
Cruzeiro ←
we assigned to the actual result (Cruzeiro)
45.92%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.92
0.97
+0.05
1.46
2.32
+0.85
Cruzeiro dominated by xG (2.32 vs 0.97).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Pedro Luccas
G
Pedro Luccas
G
26
Bruno Melo
65'
D
Bruno Melo
65'
D
23
Tiago Cóser
D
Tiago Cóser
D
55
Jacy
D
Jacy
D
2
Tinga
D
Tinga
D
19
S. Gómez
79'
M
S. Gómez
79'
M
21
Thiago Santos
54'
M
Thiago Santos
54'
M
77
Breno Lopes
79'
M
Breno Lopes
79'
M
10
Josué
M
Josué
M
11
Lucas Ronier
M
Lucas Ronier
M
32
Pedro Rocha
65'
F
Pedro Rocha
65'
F
Bench
17
B. Ocampo
19'
F
B. Ocampo
19'
F
6
Felipe Jonatan
33'
D
Felipe Jonatan
33'
D
88
Fernando Sobral
M
Fernando Sobral
M
7
J. Lavega
F
J. Lavega
F
44
João Pedro Chermont
D
João Pedro Chermont
D
20
Keno
19'
F
Keno
19'
F
3
Maicon
D
Maicon
D
18
Paulo Roberto
M
Paulo Roberto
M
22
Pedro Rangel
G
Pedro Rangel
G
4
Rodrigo Moledo
D
Rodrigo Moledo
D
99
Rodrigo Rodrigues
33'
F
Rodrigo Rodrigues
33'
F
50
Tissi
44'
M
Tissi
44'
M
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
27
Gabriel Rojas
86'
D
Gabriel Rojas
86'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
12
William Furtado
D
William Furtado
D
8
Gerson
1 👟
69'
M
Gerson
1 👟
69'
M
29
Lucas Romero
M
Lucas Romero
M
38
Felipe Morais
60'
M
Felipe Morais
60'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
1 ⚽
M
Matheus Pereira
1 ⚽
M
99
Keny Arroyo
70'
M
Keny Arroyo
70'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
85'
F
Kaio Jorge
85'
F
Bench
9
Bruno Rodrigues
13'
F
Bruno Rodrigues
13'
F
43
João Marcelo
D
João Marcelo
D
2
Kauã Moraes
D
Kauã Moraes
D
70
Kenji
38'
F
Kenji
38'
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
25
Lucas Villalba
12'
D
Lucas Villalba
12'
D
11
Marquinhos
28'
F
Marquinhos
28'
F
7
Matheus Henrique
29'
M
Matheus Henrique
29'
M
57
Rayan Lelis
F
40
Rhuan Gabriel
M
Rhuan Gabriel
M
51
Vitor Lamounier Rego
G
Vitor Lamounier Rego
G
5
Zé Lucas
M
Zé Lucas
M
Best on the pitch
Matheus Pereira
M · Cruzeiro
8.30
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 42 pass
Gerson
M · Cruzeiro
7.90
1 👟
· 49 pass
Lucas Romero
M · Cruzeiro
7.70
· 71 pass
Jonathan Jesus
D · Cruzeiro
7.60
1 shots
· 61 pass
Lucas Ronier
M · Coritiba
7.60
2 shots
· 30 pass
Otávio Costa
G · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 28 pass
Coritiba — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Luccas | G | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Melo | D | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Tiago Cóser | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Jacy | D | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Tinga | D | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Gómez | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Breno Lopes | M | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 73 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 98 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| B. Ocampo | F | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Keno | F | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Rodrigues | F | 33 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Tissi | M | 44 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 98 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 58% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 38% | — | — | — |
| William Furtado | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 23% | 3 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 69 | 7.90 | — | 1 | — | 49 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 98 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 71 | 59% | 2 | — | — |
| Felipe Morais | M | 60 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 98 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 5 | 42 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 70 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 85 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Kenji | F | 38 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | F | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
The final score was Coritiba 0–1 Cruzeiro.
What did the model predict before Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
The model assigned 28% probability to a Coritiba win, 25% to a draw, and 45% to an Cruzeiro win.