Coventry - Aston Villa
EFL Cup
September 16, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
49.53%
Win
Coventry
24.61%
Draw
25.86%
Win
Aston Villa
3.08
1.48
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(9.37%)
1X2 Result
1
50%
X
25%
2
26%
Double Chance
1X
74%
X2
51%
12
75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
67%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Coventry a 49% win probability, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Aston Villa. Expected goals are 3.1 for Coventry and 1.5 for Aston Villa (total 4.6), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.37% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
1L
0W
1D
0L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.0
1.3
Conceded
1.0
4.3
Shots OT
6.0
5.3
Corners
3.0
59%
Poss.
54%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
0%
67%
BTTS
100%
33%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 3 matches in EFL Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Coventry
Aston Villa →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Coventry
Attack
36
Defence
72
Form
59
Aston Villa
Attack
31
Defence
53
Form
47
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Coventry vs Aston Villa?
The model gives Coventry a 49% win probability, 24% for a draw, and 25% for an Aston Villa win.
How many goals are expected in Coventry vs Aston Villa?
Expected goals: Coventry 3.1, Aston Villa 1.5 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry vs Aston Villa?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.37%.