Premier League
· Regular Season - 6
October 12, 2026 21:00
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Jack Rudoni
6'
(pen.)
Sidiki Cherif
48'
Ellis Simms
(ast. Brandon Thomas-Asante)
81'
Stephen Mfuni
(ast. Jay Dasilva)
86'
70'
(ast. Nico González)
Sven Botman
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Newcastle a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Coventry 33%). The final result was Coventry 4–1 Newcastle.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
19
6
Shots on target
6
1.47
Actual xG
1.87
4
Saves
2
33%
Possession
67%
2
Corners
6
13
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Jack Rudoni
(pen.)
6'
⚽Sidiki Cherif
48'
59'
Amar Dedić
/
Lewis Miley
59'
Bazoumana Touré
/
Jacob Murphy
59'
Joelinton
/
Joe Willock
Ephron Mason-Clark
/ Tatsuhiro Sakamoto
61'
Milan van Ewijk
66'
70'
ast. Nico González ·
Sven Botman⚽
Caleb Yirenkyi
/ Frank Onyeka
78'
Sidiki Cherif
/ Ellis Simms
78'
78'
William Osula
/
Yoane Wissa
⚽Ellis Simms
· ast. Brandon Thomas-Asante
81'
81'
Joelinton
Jack Rudoni
/ Victor Torp
83'
Matt Grimes
/ Stephen Mfuni
83'
⚽Stephen Mfuni
· ast. Jay Dasilva
86'
90'
Dan Burn
/
Bazoumana Touré
Pre-match prediction
33.75%
Coventry ←
31.35%
X
34.9%
Newcastle
we assigned to the actual result (Coventry)
33.75%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.07
1.47
+0.4
1.08
1.87
+0.79
Newcastle dominated by xG (1.87 vs 1.47).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
19
C. Rushworth
G
C. Rushworth
G
3
J. Dasilva
1 👟
D
J. Dasilva
1 👟
D
4
B. Thomas
D
B. Thomas
D
2
E. Pinnock
D
E. Pinnock
D
27
M. van Ewijk
D
M. van Ewijk
D
6
M. Grimes
83'
M
M. Grimes
83'
M
8
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
78'
M
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
78'
M
10
E. Mason-Clark
61'
M
E. Mason-Clark
61'
M
5
J. Rudoni
1 ⚽
83'
M
J. Rudoni
1 ⚽
83'
M
23
B. Thomas-Asante
1 👟
M
B. Thomas-Asante
1 👟
M
49
S. Cherif
1 ⚽
78'
F
S. Cherif
1 ⚽
78'
F
Bench
25
D. Bentley
G
D. Bentley
G
9
E. Simms
1 ⚽
12'
F
E. Simms
1 ⚽
12'
F
16
F. Onyeka
12'
M
F. Onyeka
12'
M
38
G. Hamer
M
G. Hamer
M
22
J. Latibeaudiere
D
J. Latibeaudiere
D
12
S. Mfuni
1 ⚽
7'
D
S. Mfuni
1 ⚽
7'
D
7
T. Sakamoto
29'
M
T. Sakamoto
29'
M
29
V. Torp
7'
M
V. Torp
7'
M
34
Y. Gboho
F
Y. Gboho
F
21
L. Horníček
G
L. Horníček
G
3
L. Hall
D
L. Hall
D
4
S. Botman
1 ⚽
D
S. Botman
1 ⚽
D
12
M. Thiaw
D
M. Thiaw
D
67
L. Miley
59'
D
L. Miley
59'
D
28
J. Willock
59'
M
J. Willock
59'
M
6
Nico González
1 👟
M
Nico González
1 👟
M
11
H. Barnes
M
H. Barnes
M
9
Y. Wissa
78'
M
Y. Wissa
78'
M
23
J. Murphy
59'
M
J. Murphy
59'
M
20
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
Bench
8
A. Bamba
M
A. Bamba
M
37
A. Dedić
31'
D
A. Dedić
31'
D
17
B. Touré
30'
F
B. Touré
30'
F
33
D. Burn
1'
D
D. Burn
1'
D
5
F. Schär
D
F. Schär
D
7
Joelinton
31'
M
Joelinton
31'
M
1
N. Pope
G
N. Pope
G
14
Sean Steur
M
Sean Steur
M
10
W. Osula
12'
F
W. Osula
12'
F
Best on the pitch
Nico González
M · Newcastle
7.70
1 👟
· 69 pass
S. Mfuni
D · Coventry
7.55
1 ⚽
2 shots
S. Botman
D · Newcastle
7.48
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 72 pass
S. Cherif
F · Coventry
7.43
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 10 pass
E. Simms
F · Coventry
7.39
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 1 pass
J. Dasilva
D · Coventry
7.23
1 👟
· 28 pass
Coventry — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Rushworth | G | 90 | 6.71 | — | — | 0 | 43 | 23% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Dasilva | D | 90 | 7.23 | — | 1 | 0 | 28 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Thomas | D | 90 | 6.72 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Pinnock | D | 90 | 6.22 | — | — | 0 | 21 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| M. van Ewijk | D | 90 | 6.44 | — | — | 0 | 16 | 11% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Grimes | M | 83 | 6.41 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi | M | 78 | 6.57 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Mason-Clark | M | 61 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 11 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Rudoni | M | 83 | 6.31 | 1 | — | 1 | 20 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Thomas-Asante | M | 90 | 7.08 | — | 1 | 1 | 17 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Cherif | F | 78 | 7.43 | 1 | — | 3 | 10 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Simms | F | 12 | 7.39 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Onyeka | M | 12 | 6.76 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| S. Mfuni | D | 7 | 7.55 | 1 | — | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Sakamoto | M | 29 | 5.96 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Torp | M | 7 | 6.50 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Newcastle — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Horníček | G | 90 | 5.80 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Hall | D | 90 | 6.11 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Botman | D | 90 | 7.48 | 1 | — | 1 | 72 | 63% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Thiaw | D | 90 | 5.92 | — | — | 0 | 74 | 65% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Miley | D | 59 | 6.17 | — | — | 0 | 38 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Willock | M | 59 | 6.61 | — | — | 5 | 24 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Nico González | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 0 | 69 | 58% | 4 | — | — |
| H. Barnes | M | 90 | 6.71 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Wissa | M | 78 | 5.96 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Murphy | M | 59 | 6.08 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | F | 90 | 6.05 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Dedić | D | 31 | 5.80 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Touré | F | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Burn | D | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| Joelinton | M | 31 | 5.36 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Osula | F | 12 | 6.36 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Coventry vs Newcastle?
The final score was Coventry 4–1 Newcastle.
What did the model predict before Coventry vs Newcastle?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Coventry win, 31% to a draw, and 34% to an Newcastle win.