Croatia - England
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.98%
Win
Croatia
17.91%
Draw
50.11%
Win
England
2.22
2.81
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–2
(6.43%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
18%
2
50%
Double Chance
1X
50%
X2
68%
12
82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
85%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives England a 50% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 31% for Croatia. Expected goals are 2.2 for Croatia and 2.8 for England (total 5.0), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 6.43% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Croatia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for England.
Season Stats
3W
2D
3L
5W
0D
1L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
2.7
1.2
Conceded
0.5
5.0
Shots OT
6.2
4.5
Corners
6.8
48%
Poss.
70%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
100%
38%
O 2.5
67%
50%
BTTS
33%
25%
Clean Sht
67%
ℹ
Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
3W
1D
0L
· at home
3W
0D
0L
· away
1.5
gls/g
2.7
0.5
Conceded
0.3
75%
Win %
100%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
75%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
67%
0%
O 3.5
33%
50%
BTTS
33%
50%
Clean Sht
67%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Croatia
England →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 1.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 1.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Croatia
Attack
29
Defence
60
Form
44
England
Attack
55
Defence
62
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
17 Jun 2026
2–4
Unavailable
England
Injured
Injured
Injured
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 3
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 3
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #3 |
| → Croatia | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → England | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Croatia vs England?
The model gives Croatia a 31% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 50% for an England win.
How many goals are expected in Croatia vs England?
Expected goals: Croatia 2.2, England 2.8 (total 5.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Croatia vs England?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.43%.