✓Model correct — prediction Spain
Ivan Perišić
17'
61'
(ast. Daniel Olmo Carvajal)
Mikel Merino
88'
(ast. Martín Zubimendi)
Mikel Merino
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spain a 68% win probability (draw 20%, Croatia 11%). The final result was Croatia 1–2 Spain. In 2 previous meetings, Croatia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Spain.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
3
1
Saves
4
28%
Possession
72%
3
Corners
6
7
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
Slaven Bilic
14'
⚽Ivan Perišić
17'
Ivan Perišić
22'
45'
Mikel Merino
/
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
61'
ast. Daniel Olmo Carvajal ·
Mikel Merino⚽
Luka Modrić
65'
Igor Matanovic
/ Dion Drena Beljo
65'
Luka Modrić
/ Petar Sučić
66'
66'
Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante
71'
Martín Zubimendi
/
Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante
71'
Fermín López
/
Daniel Olmo Carvajal
Nikola Vlašić
/ Martin Baturina
71'
78'
Víctor Muñoz
/
Lamine Yamal
Ivan Perišić
79'
87'
Yeremy Pino
/
Pedri
Mateo Kovačić
/ Mario Pašalić
88'
88'
ast. Martín Zubimendi ·
Mikel Merino⚽
90'+2
Víctor Muñoz
Pre-match prediction
11.02%
Croatia
20.67%
X
68.31%
Spain ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Spain)
68.31%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.62
—
—
2.08
—
—
Lineups
1
D. Livaković
G
D. Livaković
G
4
J. Gvardiol
D
J. Gvardiol
D
5
L. Vušković
D
L. Vušković
D
6
J. Šutalo
D
J. Šutalo
D
2
J. Stanišić
D
J. Stanišić
D
14
I. Perišić
1 ⚽
79'
M
I. Perišić
1 ⚽
79'
M
8
M. Kovačić
88'
M
M. Kovačić
88'
M
18
K. Jakić
M
K. Jakić
M
10
L. Modrić
66'
M
L. Modrić
66'
M
13
N. Vlašić
71'
M
N. Vlašić
71'
M
20
I. Matanović
65'
F
I. Matanović
65'
F
Bench
11
A. Budimir
F
A. Budimir
F
9
A. Kramarić
F
A. Kramarić
F
7
D. Beljo
25'
F
D. Beljo
25'
F
23
D. Kotarski
G
D. Kotarski
G
12
I. Pandur
G
I. Pandur
G
22
J. Mišić
M
J. Mišić
M
21
L. Sučić
M
L. Sučić
M
19
Marco Pasalic
F
Marco Pasalic
F
15
Mario Pasalic
2'
M
Mario Pasalic
2'
M
16
M. Baturina
19'
M
M. Baturina
19'
M
3
M. Pongračić
D
M. Pongračić
D
17
P. Sučić
24'
M
P. Sučić
24'
M
23
Unai Simón
G
Unai Simón
G
22
Marc Cucurella
D
Marc Cucurella
D
14
Aymeric Laporte
D
Aymeric Laporte
D
5
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
12
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
20
Pedri
87'
M
Pedri
87'
M
16
Rodri
71'
M
Rodri
71'
M
15
Álex Baena
45'
M
Álex Baena
45'
M
10
Dani Olmo
1 👟
71'
M
Dani Olmo
1 👟
71'
M
19
Lamine Yamal
78'
M
Lamine Yamal
78'
M
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
F
Mikel Oyarzabal
F
Bench
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
2
D. Huijsen
D
D. Huijsen
D
9
Fermín
19'
M
Fermín
19'
M
17
Fran García
D
Fran García
D
4
Iván Fresneda
D
Iván Fresneda
D
13
Josep Martínez
G
Josep Martínez
G
18
Martín Zubimendi
1 👟
19'
M
Martín Zubimendi
1 👟
19'
M
6
Mikel Merino
2 ⚽
45'
M
Mikel Merino
2 ⚽
45'
M
8
Roberto Fernández
F
Roberto Fernández
F
3
Robin Le Normand
D
Robin Le Normand
D
7
Víctor Muñoz
12'
F
Víctor Muñoz
12'
F
11
Yeremy Pino
3'
M
Yeremy Pino
3'
M
Best on the pitch
Mikel Merino
M · Spain
8.93
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
Unai Simón
G · Spain
7.56
· 22 pass
Marc Cucurella
D · Spain
7.26
· 60 pass
Pedri
M · Spain
7.13
· 111 pass
Aymeric Laporte
D · Spain
7.10
· 132 pass
Rodri
M · Spain
6.93
· 92 pass
Croatia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Livaković | G | 90 | 5.77 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 90 | 6.33 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Vušković | D | 90 | 6.19 | — | — | 0 | 34 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.67 | — | — | 0 | 42 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.41 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 26% | 0 | — | — |
| I. Perišić | M | 79 | 6.66 | 1 | — | 3 | 17 | 13% | 0 | — | 1 |
| M. Kovačić | M | 88 | 6.19 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Jakić | M | 90 | 6.56 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 66 | 6.40 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 24% | 0 | 1 | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 71 | 6.10 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 65 | 6.34 | — | — | 3 | 10 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Beljo | F | 25 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 2 | 5.99 | — | — | 0 | 3 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Baturina | M | 19 | 5.64 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 24 | 6.03 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
Spain — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 7.56 | — | — | 0 | 22 | 21% | 0 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 7.26 | — | — | 0 | 60 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 7.10 | — | — | 0 | 132 | 126% | 0 | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 90 | 6.76 | — | — | 0 | 99 | 93% | 1 | — | — |
| Marc Pubill | D | 90 | 6.57 | — | — | 0 | 80 | 75% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 87 | 7.13 | — | — | 0 | 111 | 101% | 2 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 71 | 6.93 | — | — | 0 | 92 | 87% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 45 | 6.49 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 71 | 6.87 | — | 1 | 2 | 28 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 78 | 6.06 | — | — | 3 | 55 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 90 | 5.88 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| Fermín | M | 19 | 6.23 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 19 | 6.34 | — | 1 | 0 | 18 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 45 | 8.93 | 2 | — | 2 | 19 | 14% | 0 | — | — |
| Víctor Muñoz | F | 12 | 6.31 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Yeremy Pino | M | 3 | 6.24 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Croatia vs Spain?
The final score was Croatia 1–2 Spain.
What did the model predict before Croatia vs Spain?
The model assigned 11% probability to a Croatia win, 20% to a draw, and 68% to an Spain win.