Croatia - Spain
⚡ Pre-match analysis
16.3%
Win
Croatia
14.45%
Draw
69.25%
Win
Spain
1.47
3.2
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Spain
69.25%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–3
(7.65%)
1X2 Result
1
16%
X
14%
2
69%
Double Chance
1X
31%
X2
84%
12
86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
85%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Spain a 69% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 16% for Croatia. Expected goals are 1.5 for Croatia and 3.2 for Spain (total 4.7), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–3 at 7.65% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Croatia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Spain.
Season Stats
3W
2D
3L
6W
4D
0L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
2.5
1.2
Conceded
1.5
5.0
Shots OT
7.2
4.5
Corners
5.2
48%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
80%
38%
O 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
70%
25%
Clean Sht
30%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
30%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
3W
1D
0L
· at home
2W
3D
0L
· away
1.5
gls/g
2.0
0.5
Conceded
1.2
75%
Win %
40%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
75%
O 1.5
80%
25%
O 2.5
80%
0%
O 3.5
60%
50%
BTTS
80%
50%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
20%
last 5
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Croatia
Spain →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| 1 | 1.4% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% |
| 2 | 1.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Croatia
Attack
29
Defence
60
Form
44
Spain
Attack
56
Defence
91
Form
80
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
15 Jun 2024
0–3
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 3
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 3
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #1 |
| → Croatia | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Spain | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Croatia vs Spain?
The model gives Croatia a 16% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 69% for an Spain win.
How many goals are expected in Croatia vs Spain?
Expected goals: Croatia 1.5, Spain 3.2 (total 4.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Croatia vs Spain?
1–3 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.65%.