Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 10, 2026 05:15
✓Model correct — prediction Cruz Azul
J. Paradela
32'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruz Azul a 72% win probability (draw 17%, Atlas 9%). The final result was Cruz Azul 1–0 Atlas. In 4 previous meetings, Cruz Azul have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Atlas.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
6
0.41
Actual xG
0.90
5
Saves
4
40%
Possession
60%
6
Corners
6
10
Tackles
13
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Paradela
32'
54'
V. H. Rios De Alba
59'
M. E. Garcia
/
P. Ramirez
67'
A. Rodriguez
/
E. Aguirre
67'
D. Gonzalez
/
Gustavo Ferrareis
J. Paradela
/ J. Marquez
71'
A. Palavecino
/ L. Romero
71'
C. Ebere
/ G. Fernandez
76'
C. Rotondi
/ A. Montano
76'
79'
E. Zaldivar
/
A. Rocha
79'
L. Gamboa
/
S. Hernandez
C. Rodriguez
/ A. Morales
84'
87'
J. Rodriguez
Pre-match prediction
72.32%
Cruz ←
17.97%
X
9.72%
Atlas
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Cruz Azul)
72.32%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.28
0.41
-1.87
0.57
0.90
+0.33
Atlas dominated by xG (0.90 vs 0.41).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
K. Mier
G
K. Mier
G
3
O. Campos
D
O. Campos
D
33
G. Piovi
D
G. Piovi
D
17
A. García
D
A. García
D
4
W. Ditta
D
W. Ditta
D
22
J. Rodarte
D
J. Rodarte
D
29
C. Rotondi
76'
M
C. Rotondi
76'
M
19
C. Rodríguez
84'
M
C. Rodríguez
84'
M
8
A. Palavecino
71'
M
A. Palavecino
71'
M
20
J. Paradela
1 ⚽
71'
M
J. Paradela
1 ⚽
71'
M
11
C. Ebere
76'
F
C. Ebere
76'
F
Bench
1
A. Gudiño
G
A. Gudiño
G
194
Amaury Morales
11'
M
Amaury Morales
11'
M
10
A. Montaño
14'
M
A. Montaño
14'
M
170
Ariel Castro Sevilla
M
Ariel Castro Sevilla
M
21
G. Fernández
14'
F
G. Fernández
14'
F
197
Ivan Silva
M
Ivan Silva
M
16
J. Márquez
19'
M
J. Márquez
19'
M
209
Josué Díaz
D
Josué Díaz
D
18
L. Romero
19'
F
L. Romero
19'
F
214
Mateo Levy
F
Mateo Levy
F
12
C. Vargas
G
C. Vargas
G
25
J. Rodríguez
D
J. Rodríguez
D
21
R. Schlegel
D
R. Schlegel
D
28
M. Capasso
D
M. Capasso
D
3
Gustavo Ferrareis
67'
D
Gustavo Ferrareis
67'
D
26
A. Rocha
79'
M
A. Rocha
79'
M
199
S. Hernández
79'
M
S. Hernández
79'
M
15
Paulo Ramírez
59'
M
Paulo Ramírez
59'
M
58
A. González
M
A. González
M
27
V. RÃos
M
V. RÃos
M
19
E. Aguirre
67'
F
E. Aguirre
67'
F
Bench
9
Agustín Rodríguez
23'
F
Agustín Rodríguez
23'
F
4
A. Mora
D
A. Mora
D
22
A. Sánchez
G
A. Sánchez
G
11
D. González
23'
F
D. González
23'
F
6
É. Zaldívar
11'
M
É. Zaldívar
11'
M
13
G. Aguirre
D
G. Aguirre
D
10
Gustavo del Prete
F
Gustavo del Prete
F
251
L. Gamboa
11'
F
L. Gamboa
11'
F
8
M. García
31'
M
M. García
31'
M
44
Róber Pier
D
Róber Pier
D
Best on the pitch
O. Campos
D · Cruz
7.70
1 shots
· 17 pass
J. Paradela
M · Cruz
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
K. Mier
G · Cruz
7.30
· 24 pass
C. Rodríguez
M · Cruz
7.30
· 34 pass
A. García
D · Cruz
7.20
· 18 pass
W. Ditta
D · Cruz
7.20
· 34 pass
Cruz Azul — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Mier | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | — | — | — |
| O. Campos | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Piovi | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. García | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Ditta | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 24% | — | — | — |
| J. Rodarte | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| C. Rotondi | M | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 9% | — | — | — |
| C. Rodríguez | M | 84 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Palavecino | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Paradela | M | 71 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| C. Ebere | F | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Amaury Morales | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| A. Montaño | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| G. Fernández | F | 14 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Márquez | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| L. Romero | F | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Atlas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Vargas | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 36% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Schlegel | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Capasso | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Ferrareis | D | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rocha | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Hernández | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Paulo Ramírez | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 4% | — | — | — |
| A. González | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| V. RÃos | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 41% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Aguirre | F | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Rodríguez | F | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| D. González | F | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| É. Zaldívar | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| L. Gamboa | F | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| M. García | M | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
The final score was Cruz Azul 1–0 Atlas.
What did the model predict before Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
The model assigned 72% probability to a Cruz Azul win, 17% to a draw, and 9% to an Atlas win.