Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 10, 2026 05:15
✓Model correct — prediction Cruz Azul
J. Paradela
32'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruz Azul a 72% win probability (draw 17%, Atlas 9%). The final result was Cruz Azul 1–0 Atlas. In 3 previous meetings, Cruz Azul have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atlas.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
13
5
Shots on target
6
0.41
Actual xG
0.90
5
Saves
4
40%
Possession
60%
6
Corners
6
10
Tackles
13
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽J. Paradela
32'
54'
V. H. Rios De Alba
59'
M. E. Garcia
/
P. Ramirez
67'
A. Rodriguez
/
E. Aguirre
67'
D. Gonzalez
/
Gustavo Ferrareis
J. Paradela
/ J. Marquez
71'
A. Palavecino
/ L. Romero
71'
C. Ebere
/ G. Fernandez
76'
C. Rotondi
/ A. Montano
76'
79'
E. Zaldivar
/
A. Rocha
79'
L. Gamboa
/
S. Hernandez
C. Rodriguez
/ A. Morales
84'
87'
J. Rodriguez
Pre-match prediction
72.32%
Cruz ←
17.97%
X
9.72%
Atlas
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Cruz Azul)
72.32%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.28
0.41
-1.87
0.57
0.90
+0.33
Atlas dominated by xG (0.90 vs 0.41).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Kevin Mier
G
Kevin Mier
G
3
Omar Campos
D
Omar Campos
D
33
Gonzalo Piovi
D
Gonzalo Piovi
D
17
Amaury Garcia
D
Amaury Garcia
D
4
Willer Ditta
D
Willer Ditta
D
22
Jorge Rodarte Barragan
D
Jorge Rodarte Barragan
D
29
Carlos Rotondi
76'
M
Carlos Rotondi
76'
M
19
C. Rodríguez
84'
M
C. Rodríguez
84'
M
8
Agustín Palavecino
71'
M
Agustín Palavecino
71'
M
20
J. Paradela
1 ⚽
71'
M
J. Paradela
1 ⚽
71'
M
11
C. Ebere
76'
F
C. Ebere
76'
F
Bench
194
Amaury Morales
11'
M
Amaury Morales
11'
M
1
Andrés Gudiño
G
Andrés Gudiño
G
10
Andres Montaño
14'
M
Andres Montaño
14'
M
170
Ariel Castro Sevilla
M
Ariel Castro Sevilla
M
21
Gabriel Fernández
14'
F
Gabriel Fernández
14'
F
197
Ivan Silva
M
Ivan Silva
M
16
J. Márquez
19'
M
J. Márquez
19'
M
209
Josué Díaz
D
Josué Díaz
D
18
L. Romero
19'
F
L. Romero
19'
F
214
Mateo Levy
F
Mateo Levy
F
12
Camilo Vargas
G
Camilo Vargas
G
25
Jorge Rodríguez
D
Jorge Rodríguez
D
21
Rodrigo Schlegel
D
Rodrigo Schlegel
D
28
Manuel Capasso
D
Manuel Capasso
D
3
Gustavo Ferrareis
67'
D
Gustavo Ferrareis
67'
D
26
A. Rocha
79'
M
A. Rocha
79'
M
199
Sergio Hernandez
79'
M
Sergio Hernandez
79'
M
15
Paulo Ramírez
59'
M
Paulo Ramírez
59'
M
58
A. González
M
A. González
M
27
Victor Rios
M
Victor Rios
M
19
Eduardo Aguirre
67'
F
Eduardo Aguirre
67'
F
Bench
4
Adrián Mora
D
Adrián Mora
D
9
Agustín Rodríguez
23'
F
Agustín Rodríguez
23'
F
22
Antonio Sánchez
G
Antonio Sánchez
G
11
Diego González
23'
F
Diego González
23'
F
6
É. Zaldívar
11'
M
É. Zaldívar
11'
M
13
Gaddi Aguirre
D
Gaddi Aguirre
D
10
Gustavo del Prete
F
Gustavo del Prete
F
251
Luis Gamboa
11'
F
Luis Gamboa
11'
F
8
Mateo García
31'
M
Mateo García
31'
M
44
Róber Pier
D
Róber Pier
D
Best on the pitch
Omar Campos
D · Cruz
7.70
1 shots
· 17 pass
J. Paradela
M · Cruz
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 12 pass
Kevin Mier
G · Cruz
7.30
· 24 pass
C. Rodríguez
M · Cruz
7.30
· 34 pass
Amaury Garcia
D · Cruz
7.20
· 18 pass
Willer Ditta
D · Cruz
7.20
· 34 pass
Cruz Azul — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Mier | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Omar Campos | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Piovi | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Amaury Garcia | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Willer Ditta | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Rodarte Barragan | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Rotondi | M | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 9% | — | — | — |
| C. Rodríguez | M | 84 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Agustín Palavecino | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Paradela | M | 71 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| C. Ebere | F | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Amaury Morales | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Andres Montaño | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Fernández | F | 14 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| J. Márquez | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| L. Romero | F | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Atlas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camilo Vargas | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 36% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Schlegel | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| Manuel Capasso | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Gustavo Ferrareis | D | 67 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rocha | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| Sergio Hernandez | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Paulo Ramírez | M | 59 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 4% | — | — | — |
| A. González | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Victor Rios | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 41% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Eduardo Aguirre | F | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Rodríguez | F | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Diego González | F | 23 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| É. Zaldívar | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Luis Gamboa | F | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Mateo García | M | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
The final score was Cruz Azul 1–0 Atlas.
What did the model predict before Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
The model assigned 72% probability to a Cruz Azul win, 17% to a draw, and 9% to an Atlas win.