Liga MX
· Clausura - 17
April 27, 2026 03:05
✓Model correct — prediction Cruz Azul
J. Paradela
(ast. C. Rotondi)
52'
A. Palavecino
(ast. J. Paradela)
63'
L. Romero
77'
A. Montano
(ast. C. Rotondi)
90'+5
(pen.)
71'
R. Monreal
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruz Azul a 69% win probability (draw 19%, Necaxa 11%). The final result was Cruz Azul 4–1 Necaxa. In 2 previous meetings, Cruz Azul have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Necaxa.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
5
4
Shots on target
2
1.05
Actual xG
1.15
1
Saves
0
53%
Possession
47%
4
Corners
5
19
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Paradela
· ast. C. Rotondi
52'
55'
J. Ruiz
/
I. Tello
59'
F. Rossano
⚽A. Palavecino
· ast. J. Paradela
63'
A. Garcia
66'
71'
(pen.)
R. Monreal⚽
G. Fernandez
/ C. Ebere
71'
A. Garcia
/ A. Morales
71'
O. Campos
/ L. Romero
72'
73'
F. Mendez
74'
E. Lara
/
R. Martinez
75'
E. Lara
76'
A. Oliveros
⚽L. Romero
77'
79'
J. Palacios
/
L. Faravelli
79'
R. Alonso
/
F. Mendez
83'
R. Alonso
J. Paradela
/ A. Montano
85'
J. Rodarte
/ J. Diaz
88'
⚽A. Montano
· ast. C. Rotondi
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
69.52%
Cruz ←
19.42%
X
11.06%
Necaxa
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Cruz Azul)
69.52%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.08
1.05
-1.03
0.62
1.15
+0.53
xG dominance was balanced (1.05 – 1.15).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
G
3
O. Campos
72'
D
O. Campos
72'
D
4
W. Ditta
D
W. Ditta
D
17
A. García
71'
D
A. García
71'
D
22
88'
D
19
C. Rodríguez
M
C. Rodríguez
M
6
É. Lira
M
É. Lira
M
29
C. Rotondi
2 👟
M
C. Rotondi
2 👟
M
8
A. Palavecino
1 ⚽
M
A. Palavecino
1 ⚽
M
20
J. Paradela
1 ⚽
1 👟
85'
M
J. Paradela
1 ⚽
1 👟
85'
M
21
G. Fernández
71'
F
G. Fernández
71'
F
Bench
10
A. Montaño
1 ⚽
11'
M
A. Montaño
1 ⚽
11'
M
11
C. Ebere
19'
F
C. Ebere
19'
F
18
L. Romero
1 ⚽
18'
F
L. Romero
1 ⚽
18'
F
22
G
3
A. Oliveros
D
A. Oliveros
D
20
Francisco Méndez
79'
D
Francisco Méndez
79'
D
33
R. Martínez
74'
D
R. Martínez
74'
D
24
F. Rossano
M
F. Rossano
M
8
L. Faravelli
79'
M
L. Faravelli
79'
M
6
D. Leyva
M
D. Leyva
M
7
M
188
I. Tello
55'
F
30
R. Monreal
1 ⚽
F
R. Monreal
1 ⚽
F
17
R. Cortéz
F
R. Cortéz
F
Bench
10
A. E. Almendra
M
16
C. Calderón
D
C. Calderón
D
26
E. Lara
1'
D
E. Lara
1'
D
35
J. Ruiz
35'
M
J. Ruiz
35'
M
Best on the pitch
A. Palavecino
M · Cruz
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 55 pass
L. Romero
F · Cruz
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
A. Montaño
M · Cruz
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 2 pass
J. Paradela
M · Cruz
7.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 27 pass
R. Cortéz
F · Necaxa
7.50
· 38 pass
É. Lira
M · Cruz
7.30
· 58 pass
Cruz Azul — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — | |
| O. Campos | D | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Ditta | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 61 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| A. García | D | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 37 | 35% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D | 88 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | 3 | — | — | |
| C. Rodríguez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 68 | 65% | — | — | — |
| É. Lira | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 58 | 56% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Rotondi | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 2 | 2 | 22 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Palavecino | M | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Paradela | M | 85 | 7.70 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Fernández | F | 71 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Montaño | M | 11 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| C. Ebere | F | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| L. Romero | F | 18 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Necaxa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| A. Oliveros | D | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Francisco Méndez | D | 79 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Martínez | D | 74 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Rossano | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 26% | 3 | 1 | — |
| L. Faravelli | M | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Leyva | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| I. Tello | F | 55 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 11% | — | — | — |
| R. Monreal | F | 90 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Cortéz | F | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Lara | D | 1 | 4.90 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
| J. Ruiz | M | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?
The final score was Cruz Azul 4–1 Necaxa.
What did the model predict before Cruz Azul vs Necaxa?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Cruz Azul win, 19% to a draw, and 11% to an Necaxa win.