Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 14
May 03, 2026 02:00
Kaio Jorge
86'
(pen.)
12'
(ast. M. Cassierra)
A. Minda
(pen.)
32'
Maycon
72'
(ast. R. Lodi)
M. Cassierra
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 49% win probability (draw 26%, Atletico-MG 23%). The final result was Cruzeiro 1–3 Atletico-MG. In 2 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Atletico-MG.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
4
1.31
Actual xG
1.74
1
Saves
1
71%
Possession
29%
5
Corners
1
14
Tackles
12
4
🟨 Yellow cards
7
2
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
5'
Ruan Tressoldi
12'
ast. M. Cassierra ·
A. Minda⚽
32'
(pen.)
Maycon⚽
Kaua Moraes
/ N. Villarreal
40'
45'+2
A. Franco
56'
Lyanco
Christian
56'
L. Romero
/ Bruno Rodrigues
62'
Christian
/ Wanderson
62'
K. Arroyo
65'
65'
Reinier
/
A. Minda
K. Arroyo
66'
K. Arroyo
66'
69'
M. Cassierra
72'
ast. R. Lodi ·
M. Cassierra⚽
Matheus Pereira
72'
72'
Reinier
Kaiki
75'
77'
K. Pascini
/
Bernard
Gerson
/ Matheus Henrique
78'
Matheus Pereira
/ Joao Marcelo
78'
79'
Lyanco
79'
Lyanco
84'
J. Alonso
⚽Kaio Jorge
(pen.)
86'
88'
Caua
/
M. Cassierra
88'
T. Perez
/
Maycon
Pre-match prediction
49.55%
Cruzeiro
26.76%
X
23.68%
Atletico-MG ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG)
23.68%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.66
1.31
-0.35
0.93
1.74
+0.81
Atletico-MG dominated by xG (1.74 vs 1.31).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
81
G
6
Kaiki
75'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
2
Kauã Moraes
40'
D
Kauã Moraes
40'
D
11
Gerson
78'
M
Gerson
78'
M
29
Lucas Romero
62'
M
Lucas Romero
62'
M
88
Christian
62'
M
Christian
62'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
78'
M
Matheus Pereira
78'
M
99
K. Arroyo
66'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
1 ⚽
F
Kaio Jorge
1 ⚽
F
Bench
9
Bruno Rodrigues
31'
F
23
Fagner
D
Fagner
D
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
25
Lucas Villalba
D
Lucas Villalba
D
31
Matheus Cunha
G
Matheus Cunha
G
8
Matheus Henrique
15'
M
Matheus Henrique
15'
M
22
Néiser Villarreal
53'
M
Néiser Villarreal
53'
M
94
Wanderson
31'
F
Wanderson
31'
F
12
William Furtado
D
22
G
6
J. Alonso
D
J. Alonso
D
4
Ruan
D
Ruan
D
13
Lyanco
79'
D
16
Renan Lodi
1 👟
M
Renan Lodi
1 👟
M
8
Maycon
1 ⚽
88'
M
Maycon
1 ⚽
88'
M
21
A. Franco
M
2
Natanael
M
Natanael
M
11
Bernard
77'
F
Bernard
77'
F
27
Alan Minda
1 ⚽
65'
F
Alan Minda
1 ⚽
65'
F
9
Mateo Cassierra
1 ⚽
1 👟
88'
F
Mateo Cassierra
1 ⚽
1 👟
88'
F
Bench
5
Alexsander
M
Alexsander
M
23
Ángelo Preciado
D
Ángelo Preciado
D
29
Cauã Campos Soares
5'
F
Cauã Campos Soares
5'
F
92
Dudu
F
Dudu
F
10
Gustavo Scarpa
M
17
Igor Gomes
M
Igor Gomes
M
19
Reinier
28'
M
Reinier
28'
M
25
Tomás Pérez
5'
M
Tomás Pérez
5'
M
Best on the pitch
Alan Minda
F · Atletico-MG
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 12 pass
Kaio Jorge
F · Cruzeiro
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 15 pass
Mateo Cassierra
F · Atletico-MG
7.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 13 pass
Matheus Pereira
M · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 35 pass
Maycon
M · Atletico-MG
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 11 pass
Renan Lodi
M · Atletico-MG
7.30
1 👟
· 18 pass
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — | |
| Kaiki | D | 75 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 39% | 1 | — | 1 |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 64 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 57 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 40 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Christian | M | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 78 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| K. Arroyo | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 32 | 27% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 93 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | M | 53 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
Atletico-MG — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| J. Alonso | D | 93 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ruan | D | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Lyanco | D | 79 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Renan Lodi | M | 93 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Maycon | M | 88 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Franco | M | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Natanael | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Bernard | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Alan Minda | F | 65 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Cassierra | F | 88 | 7.70 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Cauã Campos Soares | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Reinier | M | 28 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Tomás Pérez | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
The final score was Cruzeiro 1–3 Atletico-MG.
What did the model predict before Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Cruzeiro win, 26% to a draw, and 23% to an Atletico-MG win.