Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 20
July 26, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Cruzeiro, result Botafogo wins
41'
(ast. Alex Telles)
G. Justino
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 57% win probability (draw 20%, Botafogo 21%). The final result was Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo. In 1 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Botafogo.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
4
1.59
Actual xG
0.40
3
Saves
6
61%
Possession
39%
9
Corners
1
13
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
26'
Warleson
35'
Huguinho
L. Sinisterra
/ Wanderson
39'
41'
ast. Alex Telles ·
G. Justino⚽
Fagner
45'+3
45'+4
N. Ferraresi
Jonathan Jesus
56'
Fabricio Bruno
/ Joao Marcelo
60'
Marquinhos
/ K. Arroyo
60'
69'
Kauan Toledo
/
Danilo Santos
Fagner
/ William Furtado
77'
G. Rojas
/ Kaua Moraes
77'
82'
K. Barria
/
Arthur Cabral
82'
S. Rodriguez
/
A. Montoro
88'
Alex Telles
90'+4
K. Barria
K. Arroyo
90'+7
Kaio Jorge
90'+8
90'
L. M. Villalba Jaume
/
Matheus Martins
90'
Marcal
/
Alex Telles
Pre-match prediction
57.42%
Cruzeiro
20.77%
X
21.81%
Botafogo ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo)
21.81%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.08
1.59
-0.49
1.13
0.40
-0.73
Cruzeiro dominated by xG (1.59 vs 0.40).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
27
Gabriel Rojas
77'
D
Gabriel Rojas
77'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
60'
D
Fabrício Bruno
60'
D
23
Fagner
77'
D
Fagner
77'
D
17
Luis Sinisterra
39'
M
Luis Sinisterra
39'
M
7
Matheus Henrique
M
Matheus Henrique
M
29
Lucas Romero
M
Lucas Romero
M
11
Marquinhos
60'
M
Marquinhos
60'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Kaio Jorge
F
9
Bruno Rodrigues
F
Bruno Rodrigues
F
Bench
38
Felipe Morais
M
Felipe Morais
M
43
João Marcelo
37'
D
João Marcelo
37'
D
2
Kauã Moraes
20'
D
Kauã Moraes
20'
D
99
Keny Arroyo
37'
F
Keny Arroyo
37'
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
25
Lucas Villalba
D
Lucas Villalba
D
57
Rayan Lelis
F
Rayan Lelis
F
40
Rhuan Gabriel
M
Rhuan Gabriel
M
51
Vitor Lamounier
G
Vitor Lamounier
G
94
Wanderson
58'
F
Wanderson
58'
F
12
William Furtado
20'
D
William Furtado
20'
D
5
Zé Lucas
M
Zé Lucas
M
17
Warleson
G
Warleson
G
13
Alex Telles
1 👟
D
Alex Telles
1 👟
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
34
Gabriel Justino
1 ⚽
D
Gabriel Justino
1 ⚽
D
2
Vitinho
D
Vitinho
D
6
C. Medina
M
C. Medina
M
75
Huguinho
M
Huguinho
M
11
Matheus Martins
M
Matheus Martins
M
8
Danilo Santos
69'
M
Danilo Santos
69'
M
10
Álvaro Montoro
82'
M
Álvaro Montoro
82'
M
19
Arthur Cabral
82'
F
Arthur Cabral
82'
F
Bench
88
Edenilson
M
Edenilson
M
12
Gabriel Batista
G
Gabriel Batista
G
14
Jordan Barrera
M
Jordan Barrera
M
37
Kadir Barría
15'
F
Kadir Barría
15'
F
59
Kauan Toledo
28'
M
Kauan Toledo
28'
M
79
Lucas Emanuel
F
Lucas Emanuel
F
33
Lucas Monzón
D
Lucas Monzón
D
77
Lucas Villalba
7'
F
Lucas Villalba
7'
F
21
Marçal
7'
D
Marçal
7'
D
4
Mateo Ponte
D
Mateo Ponte
D
29
Paulinho
D
Paulinho
D
23
Santiago Rodríguez
15'
M
Santiago Rodríguez
15'
M
Best on the pitch
Warleson
G · Botafogo
8.90
· 23 pass
Gabriel Justino
D · Botafogo
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 25 pass
Vitinho
D · Botafogo
8.20
· 25 pass
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
7.90
1 shots
· 30 pass
Nahuel Ferraresi
D · Botafogo
7.50
· 22 pass
Wanderson
F · Cruzeiro
7.30
2 shots
· 16 pass
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 77 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 61% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Fagner | D | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Sinisterra | M | 39 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 97 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 51% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Marquinhos | M | 60 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 17 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | 37 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | F | 37 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 58 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| William Furtado | D | 20 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warleson | G | 97 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Alex Telles | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | 1 | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 97 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 25 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 97 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Medina | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Matheus Martins | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Danilo Santos | M | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 82 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Kadir Barría | F | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | 1 | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | F | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Marçal | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
The final score was Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Cruzeiro win, 20% to a draw, and 21% to an Botafogo win.