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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 20 July 26, 2026 21:00
Cruzeiro
#3 · 60 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Botafogo
#11 · 42 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Cruzeiro, result Botafogo wins
41' (ast. Alex Telles) G. Justino
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 57% win probability (draw 20%, Botafogo 21%). The final result was Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo. In 1 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Botafogo.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
4
1.59
Actual xG
0.40
3
Saves
6
61%
Possession
39%
9
Corners
1
13
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
26'
Warleson
35'
Huguinho
↕ L. Sinisterra / Wanderson
39'
41'
ast. Alex Telles · G. Justino⚽
Fagner
45'+3
45'+4
N. Ferraresi
Jonathan Jesus
56'
↕ Fabricio Bruno / Joao Marcelo
60'
↕ Marquinhos / K. Arroyo
60'
69'
Kauan Toledo / Danilo Santos ↕
↕ Fagner / William Furtado
77'
↕ G. Rojas / Kaua Moraes
77'
82'
K. Barria / Arthur Cabral ↕
82'
S. Rodriguez / A. Montoro ↕
88'
Alex Telles
90'+4
K. Barria
K. Arroyo
90'+7
Kaio Jorge
90'+8
90'
L. M. Villalba Jaume / Matheus Martins ↕
90'
Marcal / Alex Telles ↕
Pre-match prediction
57.42%
Cruzeiro
20.77%
X
21.81%
Botafogo ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo) 21.81% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Cruzeiro
2.08
1.59
-0.49
Botafogo
1.13
0.40
-0.73
Cruzeiro dominated by xG (1.59 vs 0.40). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 34 76
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras 34 73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 34 60
4 Fluminense Fluminense 34 57
5 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 34 54
6 Bahia Bahia 34 53
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 34 50
8 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 34 47
9 Santos Santos 34 47
10 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 34 44
11 Botafogo Botafogo 34 42
12 Coritiba Coritiba 34 42
13 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 33 41
14 Mirassol Mirassol 34 40
15 Vitoria Vitoria 34 38
16 Internacional Internacional 34 38
17 Corinthians Corinthians 34 37
18 Gremio Gremio 34 37
19 Remo Remo 34 29
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 33 21
Lineups
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 4-4-2
81 Otávio Costa Otávio Costa G 7.30
27 Gabriel Rojas Gabriel Rojas 77' D 6.70
34 Jonathan Jesus Jonathan Jesus D 7.00
15 Fabrício Bruno Fabrício Bruno 60' D 6.90
23 Fagner Fagner 77' D 6.30
17 Luis Sinisterra Luis Sinisterra 39' M 6.90
7 Matheus Henrique Matheus Henrique M 7.30
29 Lucas Romero Lucas Romero M 7.00
11 Marquinhos Marquinhos 60' M 6.70
19 Kaio Jorge Kaio Jorge F 6.30
9 Bruno Rodrigues Bruno Rodrigues F 6.90
Bench
38 Felipe Morais Felipe Morais M
43 João Marcelo João Marcelo 37' D 6.90
2 Kauã Moraes Kauã Moraes 20' D 6.30
99 Keny Arroyo Keny Arroyo 37' F 6.60
16 Lucas Silva Lucas Silva M
25 Lucas Villalba Lucas Villalba D
57
Rayan Lelis F
40 Rhuan Gabriel Rhuan Gabriel M
51 Vitor Lamounier Rego Vitor Lamounier Rego G
94 Wanderson Wanderson 58' F 7.30
12 William Furtado William Furtado 20' D 7.20
5 Zé Lucas Zé Lucas M
Botafogo Botafogo 4-2-3-1
17 Warleson Warleson G 8.90
13 Alex Telles Alex Telles 1 👟 D 6.90
5 Nahuel Ferraresi Nahuel Ferraresi D 7.50
34 Gabriel Justino Gabriel Justino 1 ⚽ D 8.50
2 Vitinho Vitinho D 8.20
6 Cristian Medina Cristian Medina M 6.70
75 Huguinho Huguinho M 6.70
11 Matheus Martins Matheus Martins M 7.20
8 Danilo Santos Danilo Santos 69' M 6.30
10 Álvaro Montoro Álvaro Montoro 82' M 7.90
19 Arthur Cabral Arthur Cabral 82' F 6.20
Bench
88 Edenilson Edenilson M
12 Gabriel Batista Gabriel Batista G
14 Jordan Barrera Jordan Barrera M
59 Kauan Toledo Kauan Toledo 28' M 6.50
37 K. Barria K. Barria 15' F 6.50
79 L. E. Jales do Nascimento L. E. Jales do Nascimento F
33 Lucas Monzón Lucas Monzón D
77 Lucas Villalba Lucas Villalba 7' F
21 Marçal Marçal 7' D
4 Mateo Ponte Mateo Ponte D
29 Paulinho Paulinho D
23 S. Rodríguez S. Rodríguez 15' M 6.60
Best on the pitch
Warleson
Warleson
G · Botafogo
8.90
· 23 pass
Gabriel Justino
Gabriel Justino
D · Botafogo
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 25 pass
Vitinho
Vitinho
D · Botafogo
8.20
· 25 pass
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
7.90
1 shots · 30 pass
Nahuel Ferraresi
Nahuel Ferraresi
D · Botafogo
7.50
· 22 pass
Wanderson
Wanderson
F · Cruzeiro
7.30
2 shots · 16 pass
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Otávio Costa G 97 7.30 — — — 22 18% — — —
Gabriel Rojas D 77 6.70 — — — 43 37% — — —
Jonathan Jesus D 97 7.00 — — 1 63 61% 1 1 —
Fabrício Bruno D 60 6.90 — — — 35 28% 2 — —
Fagner D 77 6.30 — — — 31 22% — 1 —
Luis Sinisterra M 39 6.90 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Matheus Henrique M 97 7.30 — — 1 59 51% 1 — —
Lucas Romero M 97 7.00 — — 1 61 53% 2 — —
Marquinhos M 60 6.70 — — — 19 14% 1 — —
Kaio Jorge F 97 6.30 — — 3 17 13% — — —
Bruno Rodrigues F 97 6.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
João Marcelo D 37 6.90 — — — 21 20% — — —
Kauã Moraes D 20 6.30 — — 1 5 3% 1 — —
Keny Arroyo F 37 6.60 — — 1 17 12% — — —
Wanderson F 58 7.30 — — 2 16 12% 3 — —
William Furtado D 20 7.20 — — — 5 5% — — —
Botafogo Botafogo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Warleson G 97 8.90 — — — 23 9% — 1 —
Alex Telles D 90 6.90 — 1 1 20 18% — 1 —
Nahuel Ferraresi D 97 7.50 — — — 22 21% 1 1 —
Gabriel Justino D 97 8.50 1 — 2 25 20% 2 — —
Vitinho D 97 8.20 — — — 25 18% 2 — —
Cristian Medina M 97 6.70 — — — 26 20% 2 — —
Huguinho M 97 6.70 — — — 27 20% 2 1 —
Matheus Martins M 90 7.20 — — 1 34 25% 3 — —
Danilo Santos M 69 6.30 — — — 19 12% 1 — —
Álvaro Montoro M 82 7.90 — — 1 30 23% 1 — —
Arthur Cabral F 82 6.20 — — 1 18 12% — — —
Kauan Toledo M 28 6.50 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
K. Barria F 15 6.50 — — — 4 3% — 1 —
Lucas Villalba F 7 — — — — 1 — — — —
Marçal D 7 — — — — 1 — — — —
S. Rodríguez M 15 6.60 — — — 7 6% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
The final score was Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Cruzeiro win, 20% to a draw, and 21% to an Botafogo win.