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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 20 July 26, 2026 21:00
Cruzeiro
#6 · 42 pts
0 – 1
Final score
Botafogo
#14 · 32 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Cruzeiro, result Botafogo wins
41' (ast. Alex Telles) G. Justino
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 57% win probability (draw 20%, Botafogo 21%). The final result was Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo. In 1 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Botafogo.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
4
1.59
Actual xG
0.40
3
Saves
6
61%
Possession
39%
9
Corners
1
13
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
26'
Warleson
35'
Huguinho
↕ L. Sinisterra / Wanderson
39'
41'
ast. Alex Telles · G. Justino⚽
Fagner
45'+3
45'+4
N. Ferraresi
Jonathan Jesus
56'
↕ Fabricio Bruno / Joao Marcelo
60'
↕ Marquinhos / K. Arroyo
60'
69'
Kauan Toledo / Danilo Santos ↕
↕ Fagner / William Furtado
77'
↕ G. Rojas / Kaua Moraes
77'
82'
K. Barria / Arthur Cabral ↕
82'
S. Rodriguez / A. Montoro ↕
88'
Alex Telles
90'+4
K. Barria
K. Arroyo
90'+7
Kaio Jorge
90'+8
90'
L. M. Villalba Jaume / Matheus Martins ↕
90'
Marcal / Alex Telles ↕
Pre-match prediction
57.42%
Cruzeiro
20.77%
X
21.81%
Botafogo ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Botafogo) 21.81% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Cruzeiro
2.08
1.59
-0.49
Botafogo
1.13
0.40
-0.73
Cruzeiro dominated by xG (1.59 vs 0.40). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 27 56
2 Flamengo Flamengo 26 54
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 27 46
4 Fluminense Fluminense 27 45
5 Bahia Bahia 26 43
6 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 27 42
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 26 39
8 Coritiba Coritiba 27 38
9 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 26 36
10 Santos Santos 26 35
11 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 26 33
12 Vitoria Vitoria 26 32
13 Corinthians Corinthians 26 32
14 Botafogo Botafogo 26 32
15 Gremio Gremio 26 28
16 Mirassol Mirassol 26 28
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 26 28
18 Internacional Internacional 27 28
19 Remo Remo 26 23
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 26 17
Lineups
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 4-4-2
81 Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa G 7.30
27 G. Rojas G. Rojas 77' D 6.70
34 Jonathan Jesus Jonathan Jesus D 7.00
15 Fabrício Bruno Fabrício Bruno 60' D 6.90
23 Fágner Fágner 77' D 6.30
17 Luis Sinisterra Luis Sinisterra 39' M 6.90
7 Matheus Henrique Matheus Henrique M 7.30
29 L. Romero L. Romero M 7.00
11 Marquinhos Marquinhos 60' M 6.70
19 Kaio Jorge Kaio Jorge F 6.30
9 Bruno Rodrigues Bruno Rodrigues F 6.90
Bench
38 Felipe Morais Felipe Morais M
43 João Marcelo João Marcelo 37' D 6.90
99 K. Arroyo K. Arroyo 37' F 6.60
2 Kauã Moraes Kauã Moraes 20' D 6.30
16 Lucas Silva Lucas Silva M
25 L. Villalba L. Villalba D
57
Rayan Lelis F
40 Rhuan Gabriel Rhuan Gabriel M
51 Vitor Lamounier Rego Vitor Lamounier Rego G
94 Wanderson Wanderson 58' F 7.30
12 William William 20' D 7.20
5 Zé Lucas Zé Lucas M
Botafogo Botafogo 4-2-3-1
17 Warleson Warleson G 8.90
13 Alex Telles Alex Telles 1 👟 D 6.90
5 N. Ferraresi N. Ferraresi D 7.50
34 G. Justino G. Justino 1 ⚽ D 8.50
2 Vitinho Vitinho D 8.20
6 C. Medina C. Medina M 6.70
75 Huguinho Huguinho M 6.70
11 Matheus Martins Matheus Martins M 7.20
8 Danilo Santos Danilo Santos 69' M 6.30
10 Álvaro Montoro Álvaro Montoro 82' M 7.90
19 Arthur Cabral Arthur Cabral 82' F 6.20
Bench
88 Edenílson Edenílson M
12 Gabriel Batista Gabriel Batista G
14 Jordan Barrera Jordan Barrera M
59 Kauan Toledo Kauan Toledo 28' M 6.50
37 K. Barria K. Barria 15' F 6.50
33 L. Monzón L. Monzón D
79 Lucas Emanuel Lucas Emanuel F
77 L. Villalba L. Villalba 7' F
21 Marçal Marçal 7' D
4 M. Ponte M. Ponte D
29 Paulinho Paulinho D
23 S. Rodríguez S. Rodríguez 15' M 6.60
Best on the pitch
Warleson
Warleson
G · Botafogo
8.90
· 23 pass
G. Justino
G. Justino
D · Botafogo
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots · 25 pass
Vitinho
Vitinho
D · Botafogo
8.20
· 25 pass
Álvaro Montoro
Álvaro Montoro
M · Botafogo
7.90
1 shots · 30 pass
N. Ferraresi
N. Ferraresi
D · Botafogo
7.50
· 22 pass
Wanderson
Wanderson
F · Cruzeiro
7.30
2 shots · 16 pass
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa G 97 7.30 — — — 22 18% — — —
G. Rojas D 77 6.70 — — — 43 37% — — —
Jonathan Jesus D 97 7.00 — — 1 63 61% 1 1 —
Fabrício Bruno D 60 6.90 — — — 35 28% 2 — —
Fágner D 77 6.30 — — — 31 22% — 1 —
Luis Sinisterra M 39 6.90 — — — 8 6% 1 — —
Matheus Henrique M 97 7.30 — — 1 59 51% 1 — —
L. Romero M 97 7.00 — — 1 61 53% 2 — —
Marquinhos M 60 6.70 — — — 19 14% 1 — —
Kaio Jorge F 97 6.30 — — 3 17 13% — — —
Bruno Rodrigues F 97 6.90 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
João Marcelo D 37 6.90 — — — 21 20% — — —
K. Arroyo F 37 6.60 — — 1 17 12% — — —
Kauã Moraes D 20 6.30 — — 1 5 3% 1 — —
Wanderson F 58 7.30 — — 2 16 12% 3 — —
William D 20 7.20 — — — 5 5% — — —
Botafogo Botafogo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Warleson G 97 8.90 — — — 23 9% — 1 —
Alex Telles D 90 6.90 — 1 1 20 18% — 1 —
N. Ferraresi D 97 7.50 — — — 22 21% 1 1 —
G. Justino D 97 8.50 1 — 2 25 20% 2 — —
Vitinho D 97 8.20 — — — 25 18% 2 — —
C. Medina M 97 6.70 — — — 26 20% 2 — —
Huguinho M 97 6.70 — — — 27 20% 2 1 —
Matheus Martins M 90 7.20 — — 1 34 25% 3 — —
Danilo Santos M 69 6.30 — — — 19 12% 1 — —
Álvaro Montoro M 82 7.90 — — 1 30 23% 1 — —
Arthur Cabral F 82 6.20 — — 1 18 12% — — —
Kauan Toledo M 28 6.50 — — — 4 3% 1 — —
K. Barria F 15 6.50 — — — 4 3% — 1 —
L. Villalba F 7 — — — — 1 — — — —
Marçal D 7 — — — — 1 — — — —
S. Rodríguez M 15 6.60 — — — 7 6% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
The final score was Cruzeiro 0–1 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Cruzeiro win, 20% to a draw, and 21% to an Botafogo win.