Copa Libertadores
· Round of 16
August 13, 2026 02:30
K. Arroyo
(ast. William Furtado)
53'
67'
Lucas Paqueta
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 38% win probability (draw 23%, Flamengo 38%). The final result was Cruzeiro 1–1 Flamengo. In 3 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Flamengo.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
11
1
Shots on target
5
0.53
Actual xG
1.14
4
Saves
0
47%
Possession
53%
2
Corners
4
11
Tackles
22
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Matheus Henrique
11'
30'
G. de Arrascaeta
⚽K. Arroyo
· ast. William Furtado
53'
Wesley
/ Kenji
65'
65'
Pedro
/
Bruno Henrique
66'
Lucas Paqueta
/
G. de Arrascaeta
Fabricio Bruno
66'
67'
Lucas Paqueta⚽
Artur Jorge
69'
K. Arroyo
/ J. Costa
78'
Matheus Henrique
/ Ze Lucas
78'
84'
J. Carrascal
/
Samuel Lino
89'
G. Varela
/
G. Plata
Pre-match prediction
38.83%
Cruzeiro
23.05%
X ←
38.12%
Flamengo
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
23.05%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.09
0.53
-1.56
2.07
1.14
-0.93
Flamengo dominated by xG (1.14 vs 0.53).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
27
Gabriel Rojas
D
Gabriel Rojas
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
12
William Furtado
1 👟
D
William Furtado
1 👟
D
8
Gerson
M
Gerson
M
7
Matheus Henrique
78'
M
Matheus Henrique
78'
M
20
Wesley
65'
M
Wesley
65'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
M
Matheus Pereira
M
99
Keny Arroyo
1 ⚽
78'
M
Keny Arroyo
1 ⚽
78'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Kaio Jorge
F
Bench
9
Bruno Rodrigues
F
Bruno Rodrigues
F
38
Felipe Morais
M
Felipe Morais
M
67
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
16'
F
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
16'
F
43
João Marcelo
D
João Marcelo
D
2
Kauã Moraes
D
Kauã Moraes
D
70
Kenji
29'
F
Kenji
29'
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
25
Lucas Villalba
D
Lucas Villalba
D
97
Luciano Rodríguez
F
Luciano Rodríguez
F
11
Marquinhos
F
Marquinhos
F
51
Vitor Lamounier Rego
G
Vitor Lamounier Rego
G
5
Zé Lucas
16'
M
Zé Lucas
16'
M
1
Agustín Rossi
G
Agustín Rossi
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
21
Jorginho
M
Jorginho
M
5
Erick Pulgar
M
Erick Pulgar
M
16
Samuel Lino
84'
M
Samuel Lino
84'
M
10
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
66'
M
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
66'
M
19
Gonzalo Plata
89'
M
Gonzalo Plata
89'
M
27
Bruno Henrique
65'
F
Bruno Henrique
65'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
49
Dyogo Alves
G
Dyogo Alves
G
52
Evertton Araujo
M
Evertton Araujo
M
2
Guillermo Varela
5'
D
Guillermo Varela
5'
D
15
J. Carrascal
10'
M
J. Carrascal
10'
M
77
Johnny Goes
D
Johnny Goes
D
99
Lorran
M
Lorran
M
20
Lucas Paquetá
1 ⚽
28'
M
Lucas Paquetá
1 ⚽
28'
M
18
N. de la Cruz
M
N. de la Cruz
M
9
Pedro Guilherme
29'
F
Pedro Guilherme
29'
F
8
Saúl
M
Saúl
M
Best on the pitch
Keny Arroyo
M · Cruzeiro
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 17 pass
William Furtado
D · Cruzeiro
7.70
1 👟
· 42 pass
Jorginho
M · Flamengo
7.50
1 shots
· 54 pass
Otávio Costa
G · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 25 pass
Gerson
M · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 61 pass
Gonzalo Plata
M · Flamengo
7.20
1 shots
· 32 pass
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 67 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 57 | 48% | 2 | 1 | — |
| William Furtado | D | 94 | 7.70 | — | 1 | — | 42 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 61 | 54% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 32% | — | 1 | — |
| Wesley | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 78 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| João Gabriel e Costa Cesco | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Kenji | F | 29 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Zé Lucas | M | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | — | — | — |
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Rossi | G | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 63 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 62 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | 3 | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick Pulgar | M | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 66 | 60% | 1 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 84 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta | M | 66 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 31% | 8 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 28 | 6.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Guilherme | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 1% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The final score was Cruzeiro 1–1 Flamengo.
What did the model predict before Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Cruzeiro win, 23% to a draw, and 38% to an Flamengo win.