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Cruzeiro - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores August 11, 2026 22:00
Cruzeiro
#2 · 11 pts
vs
Flamengo
#1 · 16 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.25%
Win
Cruzeiro
19.24%
Draw
42.52%
Win
Flamengo
2.7
Expected xG
2.99

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (6.25%)
1X2 Result ✓ 70.6% hit rate (17 picks)
1 38%
X 19%
2 43%
Double Chance
1X 58%
X2 62%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 85%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Flamengo a 42% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 38% for Cruzeiro. Expected goals are 2.7 for Cruzeiro and 3.0 for Flamengo (total 5.7), with a 87% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 6.25% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Flamengo.

Season Stats

Cruzeiro
3W 2D 1L
Flamengo
4W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
2.2
0.5
Conceded
0.4
3.8
Shots OT
8.6
3.0
Corners
5.0
54%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
80%
33%
O 2.5
40%
33%
BTTS
40%
67%
Clean Sht
60%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in Copa Libertadores. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
Cruzeiro
2W 0D 1L · at home
Flamengo
1W 1D 0L · away
2.0
gls/g
1.5
0.7
Conceded
0.5
67%
Win %
50%
67%
Win or Draw
100%
67%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
0%
33%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
50%
67%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Cruzeiro Flamengo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.7%
1 0.9% 2.7% 4.1% 4.1% 3.0% 1.8%
2 1.2% 3.7% 5.5% 5.5% 4.1% 2.4%
3 1.1% 3.3% 5.0% 4.9% 3.7% 2.2%
4 0.7% 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% 1.5%
5 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8%

Recent form

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
W Barcelona SC 4–0
D Boca Juniors 1–1
D U. Catolica 0–0
W Boca Juniors 1–0
L U. Catolica 1–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 41%
Flamengo Flamengo
W Cusco 3–0
W Estudiantes L.P. 1–0
D Estudiantes L.P. 1–1
W Independiente Medellin 4–1
W Cusco 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 36%

Playing profile

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Attack
47
Defence
66
Form
57
Flamengo Flamengo
Attack
58
Defence
78
Form
73
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Cruzeiro
0
Draw
1
Flamengo
12 Mar 2026 Brasileirão Série A 0–2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
The model gives Cruzeiro a 38% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 42% for an Flamengo win.
How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
Expected goals: Cruzeiro 2.7, Flamengo 3.0 (total 5.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 87%.
What is the most likely score in Cruzeiro vs Flamengo?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.25%.