Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 00:00
Matheus Pereira
60'
(pen.)
29'
(ast. Fernando Zuqui)
Justo Giani
90'+4
(ast. Jhojan Valencia)
Jimmy Martínez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 45% win probability (draw 26%, U. Catolica 28%). The final result was Cruzeiro 1–2 U. Catolica. In 1 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for U. Catolica.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
9
6
Shots on target
4
2.21
Actual xG
0.89
2
Saves
5
64%
Possession
36%
4
Corners
4
18
Tackles
13
5
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
Lucas Romero
-5'
29'
ast. Fernando Zuqui ·
Justo Giani⚽
32'
Justo Giani
Kauã Moraes
/ William
46'
Wanderson
/ Keny Arroyo
46'
Gerson
48'
48'
Fernando Zuqui
Matheus Pereira
54'
59'
Vicente Bernedo
⚽Matheus Pereira
(pen.)
60'
62'
Jhojan Valencia
Matheus Henrique
63'
Matheus Henrique
/ Lucas Silva
72'
78'
Sebastián Arancibia
/
Clemente Montes
78'
Matías Palavecino
/
Eugenio Mena
Lucas Silva
81'
Neyser Villarreal
/ Chico da Costa
83'
Christian
/ Bruno Rodrigues
89'
89'
Juan Francisco Rossel
/
Justo Giani
89'
Jimmy Martínez
/
Fernando Zampedri
90'+4
ast. Jhojan Valencia ·
Jimmy Martínez⚽
Pre-match prediction
45.13%
Cruzeiro
26.03%
X
28.84%
U. ←
we assigned to the actual result (U. Catolica)
28.84%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.90
2.21
+0.31
1.26
0.89
-0.37
Cruzeiro dominated by xG (2.21 vs 0.89).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
31
Matheus Cunha
G
Matheus Cunha
G
2
Kauã Moraes
45'
D
Kauã Moraes
45'
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
25
L. Villalba
D
L. Villalba
D
6
Kaiki
D
Kaiki
D
11
Gerson
M
Gerson
M
8
Matheus Henrique
72'
M
Matheus Henrique
72'
M
88
Christian
89'
M
Christian
89'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
1 ⚽
M
Matheus Pereira
1 ⚽
M
94
Wanderson
45'
M
Wanderson
45'
M
22
Néiser Villarreal
83'
F
Néiser Villarreal
83'
F
Bench
9
Bruno Rodrigues
9'
F
Bruno Rodrigues
9'
F
34
Jonathan
D
Jonathan
D
99
K. Arroyo
45'
F
K. Arroyo
45'
F
29
L. Romero
M
L. Romero
M
16
Lucas Silva
18'
M
Lucas Silva
18'
M
12
William
45'
D
William
45'
D
2
D
1
V. Bernedo
G
V. Bernedo
G
19
B. Ampuero
D
B. Ampuero
D
26
Juan Ignacio Díaz
D
Juan Ignacio Díaz
D
3
Eugenio Mena
78'
D
Eugenio Mena
78'
D
20
J. Valencia
1 👟
M
J. Valencia
1 👟
M
11
C. Montes
78'
M
C. Montes
78'
M
8
F. Zuqui
1 👟
M
F. Zuqui
1 👟
M
15
C. Cuevas
M
C. Cuevas
M
7
J. Giani
1 ⚽
89'
M
J. Giani
1 ⚽
89'
M
9
F. Zampedri
89'
F
F. Zampedri
89'
F
Bench
13
A. Canales
M
A. Canales
M
14
J. Martínez
1 ⚽
9'
M
J. Martínez
1 ⚽
9'
M
18
Juan Francisco Rossel
9'
F
Juan Francisco Rossel
9'
F
10
M. Palavecino
12'
M
M. Palavecino
12'
M
Best on the pitch
Gerson
M · Cruzeiro
8.00
1 shots
· 78 pass
V. Bernedo
G · U.
7.30
· 28 pass
K. Arroyo
F · Cruzeiro
7.30
· 10 pass
J. Valencia
M · U.
7.20
1 👟
· 24 pass
J. Giani
M · U.
7.20
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 16 pass
Matheus Pereira
M · Cruzeiro
7.20
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 25 pass
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 62 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Villalba | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 46 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Kaiki | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | 1 | 78 | 75% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 72 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Christian | M | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | 4 | 22 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 6 | 25 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Wanderson | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Néiser Villarreal | F | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| K. Arroyo | F | 45 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 18 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| William | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 21% | — | — | — |
U. Catolica — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 10% | 2 | — | — | |
| V. Bernedo | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| B. Ampuero | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Ignacio Díaz | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Eugenio Mena | D | 78 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Valencia | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 24 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Montes | M | 78 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Zuqui | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 29% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Cuevas | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Giani | M | 89 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 16 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Zampedri | F | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Martínez | M | 9 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Juan Francisco Rossel | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| M. Palavecino | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?
The final score was Cruzeiro 1–2 U. Catolica.
What did the model predict before Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Cruzeiro win, 26% to a draw, and 28% to an U. Catolica win.