J. Mateta
(ast. Y. Pino)
89'
42'
(ast. G. Martinelli)
Gabriel Jesus
48'
(ast. K. Havertz)
N. Madueke
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Arsenal a 54% win probability (draw 22%, Crystal Palace 23%). The final result was Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal. In 2 previous meetings, Crystal Palace have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Arsenal.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
7
1.10
Actual xG
2.40
5
Saves
2
39%
Possession
61%
3
Corners
4
13
Tackles
7
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
42'
ast. G. Martinelli ·
Gabriel Jesus⚽
46'
Gabriel
/
R. Calafiori
46'
K. Havertz
/
C. Norgaard
D. Kamada
/ A. Wharton
46'
I. Sarr
/ Y. Pino
46'
D. Munoz
/ T. Mitchell
46'
48'
ast. K. Havertz ·
N. Madueke⚽
62'
M. Merino
/
M. Dowman
A. Wharton
/ E. Guessand
62'
74'
Gabriel Jesus
75'
E. Eze
/
Gabriel Jesus
J. S. Larsen
/ J. Mateta
77'
83'
V. Gyokeres
/
N. Madueke
⚽J. Mateta
· ast. Y. Pino
89'
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
23.19%
Crystal
22.43%
X
54.38%
Arsenal ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
54.38%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.08
1.10
+0.02
1.81
2.40
+0.59
Arsenal dominated by xG (2.40 vs 1.10).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
D. Henderson
G
D. Henderson
G
34
Chadi Riad
D
Chadi Riad
D
8
J. Lerma
D
J. Lerma
D
17
Nathaniel Clyne
D
Nathaniel Clyne
D
59
Rio Cardines
M
Rio Cardines
M
18
D. Kamada
45'
M
D. Kamada
45'
M
19
W. Hughes
M
W. Hughes
M
2
D. Muñoz
45'
M
D. Muñoz
45'
M
7
I. Sarr
45'
F
I. Sarr
45'
F
55
J. Devenny
F
J. Devenny
F
22
J. Strand Larsen
77'
F
J. Strand Larsen
77'
F
Bench
20
A. Wharton
17'
M
A. Wharton
17'
M
11
B. Johnson
F
B. Johnson
F
29
E. Guessand
28'
F
E. Guessand
28'
F
23
J. Canvot
D
J. Canvot
D
14
J. Mateta
1 ⚽
13'
F
J. Mateta
1 ⚽
13'
F
5
M. Lacroix
D
M. Lacroix
D
3
T. Mitchell
45'
D
T. Mitchell
45'
D
44
W. Benítez
G
W. Benítez
G
10
Yeremy Pino
1 👟
45'
M
Yeremy Pino
1 👟
45'
M
13
Kepa
G
Kepa
G
33
R. Calafiori
45'
D
R. Calafiori
45'
D
5
P. Hincapié
D
P. Hincapié
D
3
Cristhian Mosquera
D
Cristhian Mosquera
D
36
Martín Zubimendi
D
Martín Zubimendi
D
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
M
M. Lewis-Skelly
M
16
C. Nørgaard
45'
M
C. Nørgaard
45'
M
11
Gabriel Martinelli
1 👟
M
Gabriel Martinelli
1 👟
M
56
M. Dowman
62'
M
M. Dowman
62'
M
20
N. Madueke
1 ⚽
83'
M
N. Madueke
1 ⚽
83'
M
9
Gabriel Jesus
1 ⚽
75'
F
Gabriel Jesus
1 ⚽
75'
F
Bench
7
B. Saka
F
B. Saka
F
41
D. Rice
M
D. Rice
M
10
E. Eze
15'
M
E. Eze
15'
M
6
Gabriel Magalhães
45'
D
Gabriel Magalhães
45'
D
29
K. Havertz
1 👟
45'
F
K. Havertz
1 👟
45'
F
23
Mikel Merino
28'
M
Mikel Merino
28'
M
8
M. Ødegaard
M
M. Ødegaard
M
35
T. Setford
G
T. Setford
G
14
V. Gyökeres
16'
F
V. Gyökeres
16'
F
Best on the pitch
N. Madueke
M · Arsenal
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 36 pass
D. Henderson
G · Crystal
7.50
· 23 pass
Yeremy Pino
M · Crystal
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 19 pass
Gabriel Martinelli
M · Arsenal
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 27 pass
J. Mateta
F · Crystal
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
W. Hughes
M · Crystal
7.20
· 30 pass
Crystal Palace — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Henderson | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Chadi Riad | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Lerma | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Nathaniel Clyne | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Rio Cardines | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Kamada | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Hughes | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Muñoz | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| I. Sarr | F | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Devenny | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Strand Larsen | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Wharton | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| E. Guessand | F | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Mateta | F | 13 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Mitchell | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | M | 45 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
Arsenal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kepa | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| R. Calafiori | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| P. Hincapié | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Cristhian Mosquera | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 74 | 70% | 1 | — | — |
| Martín Zubimendi | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 57 | 53% | — | — | — |
| C. Nørgaard | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| Gabriel Martinelli | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
| M. Dowman | M | 62 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | — | — | — |
| N. Madueke | M | 83 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 36 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Jesus | F | 75 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 15 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Eze | M | 15 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 45 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 16 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 28 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
The final score was Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal.
What did the model predict before Crystal Palace vs Arsenal?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Crystal Palace win, 22% to a draw, and 54% to an Arsenal win.