Conference League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 21:00
J. Mateta
24'
(pen.)
T. Mitchell
31'
I. Sarr
(ast. D. Kamada)
90'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Crystal Palace a 44% win probability (draw 28%, Fiorentina 27%). The final result was Crystal Palace 3–0 Fiorentina. In 1 previous meetings, Crystal Palace have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fiorentina.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
2
3.05
Actual xG
0.45
2
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
3
Corners
1
13
Tackles
7
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
21'
Dodo
⚽J. Mateta
(pen.)
24'
⚽T. Mitchell
31'
E. Guessand
/ Y. Pino
65'
69'
R. Piccoli
C. Richards
76'
78'
L. Balbo
/
R. Gosens
78'
J. Fazzini
/
J. Harrison
82'
P. Comuzzo
/
M. Pongracic
J. Mateta
/ J. Lerma
83'
90'+1
G. Puzzoli
/
A. Gudmundsson
90'+1
R. Mandragora
/
N. Fagioli
D. Kamada
/ B. Johnson
90'+4
A. Wharton
/ W. Hughes
90'+4
⚽I. Sarr
· ast. D. Kamada
90'
Pre-match prediction
44.94%
Crystal ←
28.0%
X
27.07%
Fiorentina
we assigned to the actual result (Crystal Palace)
44.94%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
3.05
+1.63
1.05
0.45
-0.6
Crystal Palace dominated by xG (3.05 vs 0.45).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Dean Henderson
G
Dean Henderson
G
23
Jaydee Canvot
D
Jaydee Canvot
D
5
Maxence Lacroix
D
Maxence Lacroix
D
26
C. Richards
D
C. Richards
D
3
Tyrick Mitchell
1 ⚽
M
Tyrick Mitchell
1 ⚽
M
18
D. Kamada
1 👟
89'
M
D. Kamada
1 👟
89'
M
20
Adam Wharton
89'
M
Adam Wharton
89'
M
2
D. Muñoz
M
D. Muñoz
M
29
Evann Guessand
65'
F
Evann Guessand
65'
F
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
1 ⚽
83'
F
Jean-Philippe Mateta
1 ⚽
83'
F
7
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
Bench
24
Borna Sosa
D
Borna Sosa
D
11
Brennan Johnson
1'
F
Brennan Johnson
1'
F
34
Chadi Riad
D
Chadi Riad
D
8
J. Lerma
13'
M
J. Lerma
13'
M
19
Will Hughes
1'
M
Will Hughes
1'
M
10
Yeremy Pino
25'
M
Yeremy Pino
25'
M
43
David De Gea
G
David De Gea
G
21
Robin Gosens
78'
D
Robin Gosens
78'
D
6
L. Ranieri
D
L. Ranieri
D
5
M. Pongračić
82'
D
M. Pongračić
82'
D
2
Dodô
D
Dodô
D
27
C. Ndour
M
C. Ndour
M
44
Nicolò Fagioli
89'
M
Nicolò Fagioli
89'
M
80
Giovanni Fabbian
M
Giovanni Fabbian
M
10
A. Guðmundsson
89'
F
A. Guðmundsson
89'
F
91
Roberto Piccoli
F
Roberto Piccoli
F
17
Jack Harrison
78'
F
Jack Harrison
78'
F
Bench
22
Jacopo Fazzini
12'
M
Jacopo Fazzini
12'
M
62
Luís Balbo
12'
D
15
Pietro Comuzzo
8'
D
Pietro Comuzzo
8'
D
8
Rolando Mandragora
1'
M
Rolando Mandragora
1'
M
Best on the pitch
Yeremy Pino
M · Crystal
7.90
1 shots
· 17 pass
I. Sarr
F · Crystal
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 18 pass
D. Kamada
M · Crystal
7.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 43 pass
Jean-Philippe Mateta
F · Crystal
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 9 pass
Tyrick Mitchell
M · Crystal
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 27 pass
Adam Wharton
M · Crystal
7.50
· 70 pass
Crystal Palace — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Henderson | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 26 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jaydee Canvot | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 71% | — | — | — |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | — | — | — |
| C. Richards | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| Tyrick Mitchell | M | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 27 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Kamada | M | 89 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Adam Wharton | M | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 70 | 60% | — | — | — |
| D. Muñoz | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| Evann Guessand | F | 65 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | F | 83 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Sarr | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 18 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Brennan Johnson | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Lerma | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Will Hughes | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | M | 25 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
Fiorentina — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David De Gea | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Robin Gosens | D | 78 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| L. Ranieri | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 51 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 64 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| Dodô | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 53 | 43% | — | 1 | — |
| C. Ndour | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolò Fagioli | M | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 55 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Giovanni Fabbian | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Guðmundsson | F | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Roberto Piccoli | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jack Harrison | F | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Fazzini | M | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Luís Balbo | D | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Pietro Comuzzo | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Rolando Mandragora | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina?
The final score was Crystal Palace 3–0 Fiorentina.
What did the model predict before Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Crystal Palace win, 28% to a draw, and 27% to an Fiorentina win.