Conference League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 21:00
J. Mateta
24'
(pen.)
T. Mitchell
31'
I. Sarr
(ast. D. Kamada)
90'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Crystal Palace a 44% win probability (draw 28%, Fiorentina 27%). The final result was Crystal Palace 3–0 Fiorentina. In 1 previous meetings, Crystal Palace have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fiorentina.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
2
3.05
Actual xG
0.45
2
Saves
2
52%
Possession
48%
3
Corners
1
13
Tackles
7
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
21'
Dodo
⚽J. Mateta
(pen.)
24'
⚽T. Mitchell
31'
E. Guessand
/ Y. Pino
65'
69'
R. Piccoli
C. Richards
76'
78'
L. Balbo
/
R. Gosens
78'
J. Fazzini
/
J. Harrison
82'
P. Comuzzo
/
M. Pongracic
J. Mateta
/ J. Lerma
83'
90'+1
G. Puzzoli
/
A. Gudmundsson
90'+1
R. Mandragora
/
N. Fagioli
D. Kamada
/ B. Johnson
90'+4
A. Wharton
/ W. Hughes
90'+4
⚽I. Sarr
· ast. D. Kamada
90'
Pre-match prediction
44.94%
Crystal ←
28.0%
X
27.07%
Fiorentina
we assigned to the actual result (Crystal Palace)
44.94%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.42
3.05
+1.63
1.05
0.45
-0.6
Crystal Palace dominated by xG (3.05 vs 0.45).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
D. Henderson
G
D. Henderson
G
23
J. Canvot
D
J. Canvot
D
5
M. Lacroix
D
M. Lacroix
D
26
Chris Richards
D
Chris Richards
D
3
T. Mitchell
1 ⚽
M
T. Mitchell
1 ⚽
M
18
D. Kamada
1 👟
89'
M
D. Kamada
1 👟
89'
M
20
A. Wharton
89'
M
A. Wharton
89'
M
2
Daniel Muñoz
M
Daniel Muñoz
M
29
E. Guessand
65'
F
E. Guessand
65'
F
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
1 ⚽
83'
F
Jean-Philippe Mateta
1 ⚽
83'
F
7
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
Bench
11
B. Johnson
1'
F
B. Johnson
1'
F
24
B. Sosa
D
B. Sosa
D
34
Chadi Riad
D
Chadi Riad
D
8
J. Lerma
13'
M
J. Lerma
13'
M
19
W. Hughes
1'
M
W. Hughes
1'
M
10
Yeremy Pino
25'
M
Yeremy Pino
25'
M
43
David De Gea
G
David De Gea
G
21
R. Gosens
78'
D
R. Gosens
78'
D
6
Luca Ranieri
D
Luca Ranieri
D
5
M. Pongračić
82'
D
M. Pongračić
82'
D
2
Dodô
D
Dodô
D
27
Cher Ndour
M
Cher Ndour
M
44
N. Fagioli
89'
M
N. Fagioli
89'
M
80
Giovanni Fabbian
M
Giovanni Fabbian
M
10
A. Guðmundsson
89'
F
A. Guðmundsson
89'
F
91
Roberto Piccoli
F
Roberto Piccoli
F
17
J. Harrison
78'
F
J. Harrison
78'
F
Bench
22
Jacopo Fazzini
12'
M
Jacopo Fazzini
12'
M
62
Luís Balbo
12'
D
Luís Balbo
12'
D
15
Pietro Comuzzo
8'
D
Pietro Comuzzo
8'
D
8
R. Mandragora
1'
M
R. Mandragora
1'
M
Best on the pitch
Yeremy Pino
M · Crystal
7.90
1 shots
· 17 pass
I. Sarr
F · Crystal
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 18 pass
D. Kamada
M · Crystal
7.70
1 👟
1 shots
· 43 pass
Jean-Philippe Mateta
F · Crystal
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 9 pass
T. Mitchell
M · Crystal
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 27 pass
A. Wharton
M · Crystal
7.50
· 70 pass
Crystal Palace — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Henderson | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 26 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. Canvot | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 71% | — | — | — |
| M. Lacroix | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Chris Richards | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Mitchell | M | 90 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 27 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Kamada | M | 89 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Wharton | M | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 70 | 60% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| E. Guessand | F | 65 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | F | 83 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Sarr | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 18 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Johnson | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Lerma | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Hughes | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | M | 25 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
Fiorentina — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David De Gea | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | — | — | — |
| R. Gosens | D | 78 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Luca Ranieri | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 51 | 44% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 64 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| Dodô | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 53 | 43% | — | 1 | — |
| Cher Ndour | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 55 | 42% | 2 | — | — |
| Giovanni Fabbian | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Guðmundsson | F | 89 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Roberto Piccoli | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Harrison | F | 78 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Fazzini | M | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Luís Balbo | D | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Pietro Comuzzo | D | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| R. Mandragora | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina?
The final score was Crystal Palace 3–0 Fiorentina.
What did the model predict before Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Crystal Palace win, 28% to a draw, and 27% to an Fiorentina win.