Conference League
· Final
May 27, 2026 21:00
J. Mateta
51'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rayo Vallecano a 41% win probability (draw 23%, Crystal Palace 34%). The final result was Crystal Palace 1–0 Rayo Vallecano.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
8
3
Shots on target
1
2.54
Actual xG
0.44
1
Saves
2
42%
Possession
58%
4
Corners
1
13
Tackles
12
3
🟨 Yellow cards
6
Match Events
20'
P. Ciss
23'
I. Palazon
A. Wharton
42'
48'
U. Lopez
⚽J. Mateta
51'
62'
A. Garcia
62'
N. Mendy
/
O. Valentin
63'
P. Diaz
/
U. Lopez
70'
S. Camello
/
J. de Frutos
70'
Pacha
/
A. Garcia
Y. Pino
74'
J. Mateta
/ J. S. Larsen
76'
77'
I. Akhomach
/
I. Palazon
Y. Pino
/ E. Guessand
80'
C. Riad
82'
85'
N. Mendy
90'+2
Pacha
Pre-match prediction
34.68%
Crystal ←
23.64%
X
41.68%
Rayo
we assigned to the actual result (Crystal Palace)
34.68%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.40
2.54
+1.14
1.75
0.44
-1.31
Crystal Palace dominated by xG (2.54 vs 0.44).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
D. Henderson
G
D. Henderson
G
34
Chadi Riad
D
Chadi Riad
D
5
M. Lacroix
D
M. Lacroix
D
23
J. Canvot
D
J. Canvot
D
3
T. Mitchell
M
T. Mitchell
M
18
Daichi Kamada
M
Daichi Kamada
M
20
A. Wharton
M
A. Wharton
M
2
D. Muñoz
M
D. Muñoz
M
10
Yeremy Pino
80'
F
Yeremy Pino
80'
F
14
Jean-Philippe Mateta
1 ⚽
76'
F
Jean-Philippe Mateta
1 ⚽
76'
F
7
I. Sarr
F
I. Sarr
F
Bench
11
B. Johnson
F
B. Johnson
F
24
B. Sosa
D
B. Sosa
D
26
Chris Richards
D
Chris Richards
D
29
E. Guessand
13'
F
E. Guessand
13'
F
55
J. Devenny
M
J. Devenny
M
8
J. Lerma
M
J. Lerma
M
22
J. Strand Larsen
17'
F
J. Strand Larsen
17'
F
17
Nathaniel Clyne
D
Nathaniel Clyne
D
59
Rio Cardines
M
Rio Cardines
M
31
R. Matthews
G
R. Matthews
G
44
W. Benítez
G
W. Benítez
G
19
W. Hughes
M
W. Hughes
M
13
Augusto Batalla
G
Augusto Batalla
G
3
Pep Chavarría
D
Pep Chavarría
D
6
P. Ciss
D
P. Ciss
D
24
F. Lejeune
D
F. Lejeune
D
2
A. Rațiu
D
A. Rațiu
D
17
Unai López
62'
M
Unai López
62'
M
23
Óscar Valentín
63'
M
Óscar Valentín
63'
M
18
Álvaro García
70'
M
Álvaro García
70'
M
7
Isi Palazón
77'
M
Isi Palazón
77'
M
19
Jorge de Frutos
70'
M
Jorge de Frutos
70'
M
9
Alemão
F
Alemão
F
Bench
30
Adrián Molina
G
Adrián Molina
G
1
Dani Cárdenas
G
Dani Cárdenas
G
15
Gerard Gumbau
M
Gerard Gumbau
M
20
I. Balliu
D
I. Balliu
D
12
Ilias Akhomach
16'
F
Ilias Akhomach
16'
F
32
N. Mendy
30'
D
N. Mendy
30'
D
8
Óscar Trejo
M
Óscar Trejo
M
22
Pacha
23'
D
Pacha
23'
D
4
Pedro Díaz
31'
M
Pedro Díaz
31'
M
10
Sergio Camello
23'
F
Sergio Camello
23'
F
Best on the pitch
F. Lejeune
D · Rayo
7.50
2 shots
· 76 pass
Chadi Riad
D · Crystal
7.30
1 shots
· 34 pass
A. Wharton
M · Crystal
7.30
1 shots
· 38 pass
Yeremy Pino
F · Crystal
7.20
1 shots
· 22 pass
J. Canvot
D · Crystal
7.00
· 36 pass
Daichi Kamada
M · Crystal
7.00
· 39 pass
Crystal Palace — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Henderson | G | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Chadi Riad | D | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Lacroix | D | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 28 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Canvot | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Mitchell | M | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Daichi Kamada | M | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Wharton | M | 93 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Muñoz | M | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | F | 80 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | F | 76 | 6.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| I. Sarr | F | 93 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Guessand | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Strand Larsen | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Pep Chavarría | D | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| P. Ciss | D | 93 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 53 | 50% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Lejeune | D | 93 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 76 | 66% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Rațiu | D | 93 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Unai López | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Álvaro García | M | 70 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| Isi Palazón | M | 77 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | M | 70 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Alemão | F | 93 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 9 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Ilias Akhomach | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Mendy | D | 30 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Pacha | D | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 31 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Sergio Camello | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano?
The final score was Crystal Palace 1–0 Rayo Vallecano.
What did the model predict before Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Crystal Palace win, 23% to a draw, and 41% to an Rayo Vallecano win.