Brasileirão Série B
· Regular Season - 13
June 14, 2026 22:00
Calebe Costa
90'+2
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cuiaba a 39% win probability (draw 29%, Vila Nova 30%). The final result was Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova.
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
3
2.04
Actual xG
0.60
51%
Possession
49%
5
Corners
2
Match Events
Rodrigo Rodrigues
/ Kauan Cristtyan
46'
46'
Caio Marcelo
/
Tiago Pagnussat
Vinicius Peixoto
/ Mateus Santos
58'
Luiz Otavio
/ Luis Soares
58'
66'
Emerson Urso
/
Janderson
66'
Dellatorre
/
Andre Luis
66'
Hayner
/
Dodo
Pepe
/ Victor Barbara
68'
Raylan
/ Marcos Junior
84'
84'
Bruno Xavier
/
Ryan
85'
Joao Vieira
⚽Calebe Costa
90'+2
Marcos Junior
90'+8
Pre-match prediction
39.53%
Cuiaba ←
29.66%
X
30.81%
Vila
we assigned to the actual result (Cuiaba)
39.53%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
2.04
+0.83
1.08
0.60
-0.48
Cuiaba dominated by xG (2.04 vs 0.60).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
The final score was Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova.
What did the model predict before Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
The model assigned 39% probability to a Cuiaba win, 29% to a draw, and 30% to an Vila Nova win.