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Cyprus - Latvia

UEFA Nations League October 05, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Cyprus
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Latvia
#1 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
62.52%
Win
Cyprus
18.1%
Draw
19.38%
Win
Latvia
2.5
Expected xG
1.29
Most likely outcome
Cyprus
62.52%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (9.15%)
1X2 Result
1 63%
X 18%
2 19%
Double Chance
1X 81%
X2 38%
12 82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 83%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Cyprus a 62% win probability, against 18% for a draw and 19% for Latvia. Expected goals are 2.5 for Cyprus and 1.3 for Latvia (total 3.8), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.15% probability.

Season Stats

Cyprus
2W 0D 4L
Latvia
3W 1D 4L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.8
2.5
Conceded
1.4
3.3
Shots OT
2.6
4.5
Corners
4.0
40%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
83%
O 1.5
50%
83%
O 2.5
38%
33%
BTTS
38%
17%
Clean Sht
38%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
29%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
Cyprus
1W 0D 2L · at home
Latvia
1W 1D 2L · away
0.7
gls/g
0.8
2.7
Conceded
1.5
33%
Win %
25%
33%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
25%
33%
O 3.5
25%
33%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
25%
67%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Cyprus Latvia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.3% 2.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
1 5.7% 7.3% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.1% 9.1% 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.9% 7.6% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 3.7% 4.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Recent form

Cyprus Cyprus
L Romania 4–1
W Lithuania 2–1
L Kosovo 3–0
L Romania 0–3
L Kosovo 0–4
Latvia Latvia
W Gibraltar 1–0
W Gibraltar 0–1
L Armenia 1–2
L FYR Macedonia 1–0
D Faroe Islands 1–1

Playing profile

Cyprus Cyprus
Attack
39
Defence
74
Form
24
Latvia Latvia
Attack
27
Defence
72
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Latvia Latvia 0 0
2 Montenegro Montenegro 0 0
3 Armenia Armenia 0 0
4 Cyprus Cyprus 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Cyprus Latvia
Current #4 #1
→ Cyprus #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Latvia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Cyprus vs Latvia?
The model gives Cyprus a 62% win probability, 18% for a draw, and 19% for an Latvia win.
How many goals are expected in Cyprus vs Latvia?
Expected goals: Cyprus 2.5, Latvia 1.3 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Cyprus vs Latvia?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.15%.