MLS
· Regular Season - 15
May 17, 2026 01:30
Peglow
90'
50'
(ast. S. Jeong)
C. Durkin
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave DC United a 49% win probability (draw 25%, St. Louis City 24%). The final result was DC United 1–1 St. Louis City.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
8
5
Shots on target
3
0.80
Actual xG
1.12
2
Saves
4
43%
Possession
57%
5
Corners
8
16
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
5
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
28'
F. Fall
41'
C. Wallem
50'
ast. S. Jeong ·
C. Durkin⚽
58'
M. Perez
J. Hopkins
60'
M. Peltola
/ J. Stroud
62'
63'
S. Cordova
/
S. Jeong
63'
E. Lowen
/
C. Teuchert
63'
D. Edelman
/
M. Perez
S. Hefti
70'
K. Kurokawa
/ C. Antley
78'
J. Hopkins
/ N. Markovic
78'
78'
T. Totland
/
Rafael Santos
90'+1
M. Mbacke
/
S. Becher
90'+2
C. Wallem
90'+2
C. Wallem
K. Rowles
90'+3
90'+5
M. Mbacke
90'+7
⚽Peglow
90'
Pre-match prediction
49.5%
DC
25.65%
X ←
24.85%
St.
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.65%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.79
0.80
-0.99
0.95
1.12
+0.17
St. Louis City dominated by xG (1.12 vs 0.80).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Sean Johnson
G
Sean Johnson
G
6
Keisuke Kurokawa
78'
D
Keisuke Kurokawa
78'
D
15
Kye Rowles
D
Kye Rowles
D
3
Lucas Bartlett
D
Lucas Bartlett
D
5
Silvan Hefti
D
Silvan Hefti
D
7
João Peglow
1 ⚽
M
João Peglow
1 ⚽
M
23
Brandon Servania
M
Brandon Servania
M
4
Matti Peltola
62'
M
Matti Peltola
62'
M
25
J. Hopkins
78'
M
11
Louis Munteanu
F
Louis Munteanu
F
9
T. Baribo
F
T. Baribo
F
Bench
26
Alex Bono
G
Alex Bono
G
30
Caden Clark
M
Caden Clark
M
12
Conner Antley
23'
D
Conner Antley
23'
D
48
Gavin Turner
M
Gavin Turner
M
77
Hosei Kijima
M
Hosei Kijima
M
17
Jacob Murrell
F
Jacob Murrell
F
8
Jared Stroud
39'
M
Jared Stroud
39'
M
24
Jordan Farr
G
Jordan Farr
G
27
Nikola Markovic
23'
D
Nikola Markovic
23'
D
1
Roman Bürki
G
Roman Bürki
G
27
Fallou Fall
D
Fallou Fall
D
32
Timo Baumgartl
D
Timo Baumgartl
D
21
Dante Polvara
D
Dante Polvara
D
20
Rafael Santos
78'
M
Rafael Santos
78'
M
8
C. Durkin
1 ⚽
M
C. Durkin
1 ⚽
M
28
Miguel Perez
63'
M
Miguel Perez
63'
M
6
Conrad Wallem
M
Conrad Wallem
M
36
Cedric Teuchert
63'
F
Cedric Teuchert
63'
F
11
Simon Becher
F
Simon Becher
F
77
Jeong Sang-bin
1 👟
63'
F
Jeong Sang-bin
1 👟
63'
F
Bench
39
Benjamin Lundt
G
Benjamin Lundt
G
80
Brendan McSorley
F
Brendan McSorley
F
24
Daniel Edelman
38'
M
Daniel Edelman
38'
M
10
Eduard Löwen
38'
M
Eduard Löwen
38'
M
22
Kyle Hiebert
D
Kyle Hiebert
D
4
Mamadou Mbacke
10'
D
Mamadou Mbacke
10'
D
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
Mykhi Joyner
M
16
Sergio Córdova
38'
F
Sergio Córdova
38'
F
14
Tomas Totland
23'
D
Tomas Totland
23'
D
Best on the pitch
João Peglow
M · DC
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 29 pass
C. Durkin
M · St.
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 43 pass
Timo Baumgartl
D · St.
7.50
· 52 pass
Fallou Fall
D · St.
7.50
1 shots
· 52 pass
Jared Stroud
M · DC
7.30
1 shots
· 17 pass
Cedric Teuchert
F · St.
7.30
· 27 pass
DC United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Johnson | G | 101 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Kye Rowles | D | 101 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 32% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Bartlett | D | 101 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 36% | 1 | — | — |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 101 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | 4 | 1 | — |
| João Peglow | M | 101 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 29 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Brandon Servania | M | 101 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Matti Peltola | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Hopkins | M | 78 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Louis Munteanu | F | 101 | 6.30 | — | — | 5 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| T. Baribo | F | 101 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Conner Antley | D | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | 39 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
St. Louis City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Bürki | G | 101 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Fallou Fall | D | 101 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 46% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 101 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 52 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Dante Polvara | D | 101 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | M | 78 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Durkin | M | 101 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 43 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 29% | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Cedric Teuchert | F | 63 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 91 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Jeong Sang-bin | F | 63 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 38 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Eduard Löwen | M | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Mbacke | D | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Sergio Córdova | F | 38 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | D | 23 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of DC United vs St. Louis City?
The final score was DC United 1–1 St. Louis City.
What did the model predict before DC United vs St. Louis City?
The model assigned 49% probability to a DC United win, 25% to a draw, and 24% to an St. Louis City win.