MLS
· Regular Season - 17
July 26, 2026 01:30
✓Model correct — prediction DC United
K. Rowles
(ast. K. Kurokawa)
41'
T. Baribo
90'+10
(pen.)
76'
T. Corbeanu
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave DC United a 61% win probability (draw 21%, Toronto FC 17%). The final result was DC United 2–1 Toronto FC.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
7
2.43
Actual xG
1.42
6
Saves
6
45%
Possession
55%
8
Corners
4
22
Tackles
8
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽K. Rowles
· ast. K. Kurokawa
41'
46'
A. Coello
/
Z. Monlouis
L. Munteanu
53'
54'
D. Mihailovic
/
D. Etienne
54'
D. Kerr
/
E. Aristizabal
Peglow
/ J. Stroud
65'
J. Hopkins
/ M. Peltola
65'
76'
T. Corbeanu⚽
B. Servania
/ H. Kijima
80'
K. Rowles
/ S. Nealis
80'
L. Munteanu
/ N. Ordaz
85'
88'
J. Osorio
90'+2
M. Henry
/
T. Corbeanu
⚽T. Baribo
(pen.)
90'+10
Pre-match prediction
61.19%
DC ←
21.16%
X
17.64%
Toronto
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (DC United)
61.19%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.06
2.43
+0.37
0.74
1.42
+0.68
DC United dominated by xG (2.43 vs 1.42).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
S. Johnson
G
S. Johnson
G
6
K. Kurokawa
1 👟
D
K. Kurokawa
1 👟
D
15
K. Rowles
1 ⚽
80'
D
K. Rowles
1 ⚽
80'
D
3
L. Bartlett
D
L. Bartlett
D
5
S. Hefti
D
S. Hefti
D
7
Peglow
65'
M
Peglow
65'
M
21
A. Dozzell
M
A. Dozzell
M
23
B. Servania
80'
M
B. Servania
80'
M
25
J. Hopkins
65'
M
J. Hopkins
65'
M
9
T. Baribo
1 ⚽
F
T. Baribo
1 ⚽
F
11
L. Munteanu
85'
F
L. Munteanu
85'
F
Bench
26
A. Bono
G
A. Bono
G
77
Hosei Kijima
22'
M
Hosei Kijima
22'
M
8
J. Stroud
37'
M
J. Stroud
37'
M
4
M. Peltola
37'
D
M. Peltola
37'
D
27
Nikola Markovic
D
Nikola Markovic
D
22
N. Ordaz
17'
F
N. Ordaz
17'
F
32
O. Avilez
F
O. Avilez
F
13
S. Nealis
22'
D
S. Nealis
22'
D
1
L. Gavran
G
L. Gavran
G
38
J. Gilman
D
J. Gilman
D
25
W. Zimmerman
D
W. Zimmerman
D
12
Z. Monlouis
45'
D
Z. Monlouis
45'
D
20
D. Sallói
M
D. Sallói
M
21
J. Osorio
M
J. Osorio
M
22
R. Laryea
M
R. Laryea
M
19
K. Franklin
M
K. Franklin
M
11
D. Etienne
54'
F
D. Etienne
54'
F
7
T. Corbeanu
1 ⚽
F
T. Corbeanu
1 ⚽
F
17
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
54'
F
Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga
54'
F
Bench
77
Adisa De Rosario
G
Adisa De Rosario
G
14
Alonso Coello
57'
M
Alonso Coello
57'
M
29
Deandre Kerr
48'
F
Deandre Kerr
48'
F
10
D. Mihailović
48'
M
D. Mihailović
48'
M
99
J. Vilsaint
F
J. Vilsaint
F
78
Malik Henry
10'
M
Malik Henry
10'
M
44
R. Edwards
D
R. Edwards
D
23
W. Yarbrough
G
W. Yarbrough
G
Best on the pitch
T. Corbeanu
F · Toronto
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 26 pass
A. Dozzell
M · DC
8.00
1 shots
· 24 pass
K. Kurokawa
D · DC
7.90
1 👟
· 26 pass
K. Rowles
D · DC
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
W. Zimmerman
D · Toronto
7.90
· 56 pass
S. Hefti
D · DC
7.70
· 25 pass
DC United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Johnson | G | 102 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 12% | — | — | — |
| K. Kurokawa | D | 102 | 7.90 | — | 1 | — | 26 | 22% | 6 | — | — |
| K. Rowles | D | 80 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Bartlett | D | 102 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 39% | — | — | — |
| S. Hefti | D | 102 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 5 | — | — |
| Peglow | M | 65 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Dozzell | M | 102 | 8.00 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| B. Servania | M | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| J. Hopkins | M | 65 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Baribo | F | 102 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Munteanu | F | 85 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Stroud | M | 37 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Peltola | D | 37 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
| N. Ordaz | F | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Nealis | D | 22 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
Toronto FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Gavran | G | 102 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 21% | — | — | — |
| J. Gilman | D | 102 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 54 | 50% | — | — | — |
| W. Zimmerman | D | 102 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 56 | 49% | — | — | — |
| Z. Monlouis | D | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Sallói | M | 102 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Osorio | M | 102 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 56 | 44% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Laryea | M | 102 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | — | — | — |
| K. Franklin | M | 102 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Etienne | F | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 9% | — | — | — |
| T. Corbeanu | F | 92 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga | F | 54 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Alonso Coello | M | 57 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Deandre Kerr | F | 48 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Mihailović | M | 48 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 13 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Malik Henry | M | 10 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of DC United vs Toronto FC?
The final score was DC United 2–1 Toronto FC.
What did the model predict before DC United vs Toronto FC?
The model assigned 61% probability to a DC United win, 21% to a draw, and 17% to an Toronto FC win.