Skip to main content
← Primera División

Defensor Sporting - Cerro

Primera División August 04, 2026 00:00 Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
#8 · 21 pts
vs
Cerro
#16 · 10 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 11.8°C 💨 18 km/h · Montevideo
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.63%
Win
Defensor Sporting
39.4%
Draw
17.98%
Win
Cerro
0.77
Expected xG
0.4

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (30.63%)
1X2 Result ✓ 72.2% hit rate (18 picks)
1 43%
X 39%
2 18%
Double Chance ✓ 88.9% hit rate (18 picks)
1X 82%
X2 57%
12 61%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 29%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Defensor Sporting a 42% win probability, against 39% for a draw and 17% for Cerro. Expected goals are 0.8 for Defensor Sporting and 0.4 for Cerro (total 1.2), with a 64% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 30.63% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Defensor Sporting have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Cerro.

Season Stats

Defensor Sporting
3W 7D 5L
Cerro
5W 2D 8L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
0.7
1.0
Conceded
1.6
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
60%
27%
O 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
40%
27%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Defensor Sporting
4W 3D 3L · at home
Cerro
1W 1D 8L · away
1.0
gls/g
0.6
0.9
Conceded
2.5
40%
Win %
10%
70%
Win or Draw
20%
70%
O 1.5
90%
30%
O 2.5
70%
0%
O 3.5
40%
50%
BTTS
50%
40%
Clean Sht
0%
20%
Failed to Score
50%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Defensor Sporting Cerro →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 31.1% 12.3% 2.4% 0.3% — —
1 24.0% 9.5% 1.9% 0.2% — —
2 9.3% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% — —
3 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% — — —
4 0.5% 0.2% — — — —
5 0.1% — — — — —

Recent form

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
L Liverpool Montevideo 1–2
D Cerro Largo 1–1
D Boston River 1–1
D Racing Montevideo 0–0
L Penarol 0–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 30%
Cerro Cerro
W Racing Montevideo 1–0
W Liverpool Montevideo 1–2
L Penarol 0–1
L Cerro Largo 2–0
W Central Espanol 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 14%

Playing profile

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
Attack
19
Defence
72
Form
44
Cerro Cerro
Attack
17
Defence
52
Form
42
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Defensor Sporting
0
Draw
1
Cerro
5 Apr 2026 Primera División 0–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 15 31
2 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 15 29
3 Albion FC Albion FC 15 28
4 Penarol Penarol 15 27
5 Central Espanol Central Espanol 15 24
6 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 15 23
7 Club Nacional Club Nacional 15 22
8 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 15 21
9 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 15 20
10 Wanderers Wanderers 15 20
11 Danubio Danubio 15 18
12 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 15 17
13 Boston River Boston River 15 17
14 Juventud Juventud 15 15
15 Progreso Progreso 15 10
16 Cerro Cerro 15 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
The model gives Defensor Sporting a 42% win probability, 39% for a draw, and 17% for an Cerro win.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
Expected goals: Defensor Sporting 0.8, Cerro 0.4 (total 1.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 64%.
What is the most likely score in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 30.63%.