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Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Maldonado

Primera División September 13, 2026 21:00 Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
#7 · 6 pts
vs
Deportivo Maldonado
#2 · 29 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 8.6°C 💨 14 km/h · Montevideo
⚡ Pre-match analysis
28.39%
Win
Defensor Sporting
30.01%
Draw
41.6%
Win
Deportivo Maldonado
0.79
Expected xG
1.1

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (17.23%)
1X2 Result ✓ 64.7% hit rate (17 picks)
1 28%
X 30%
2 42%
Double Chance
1X 58%
X2 72%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 39%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Deportivo Maldonado a 41% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Defensor Sporting. Expected goals are 0.8 for Defensor Sporting and 1.1 for Deportivo Maldonado (total 1.9), with a 65% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 17.23% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Defensor Sporting have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Deportivo Maldonado.

Season Stats

Defensor Sporting
2W 6D 7L
Deportivo Maldonado
7W 5D 3L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
1.5
1.5
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
73%
40%
O 2.5
40%
67%
BTTS
47%
13%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Defensor Sporting
3W 1D 6L · at home
Deportivo Maldonado
4W 2D 4L · away
0.9
gls/g
1.3
1.6
Conceded
1.2
30%
Win %
40%
40%
Win or Draw
60%
80%
O 1.5
80%
50%
O 2.5
30%
20%
O 3.5
20%
50%
BTTS
50%
20%
Clean Sht
30%
30%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Defensor Sporting Deportivo Maldonado →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.0% 16.6% 9.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%
1 11.9% 13.1% 7.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%
2 4.7% 5.2% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
D Central Espanol 1–1
L Atletico Torque 1–3
D Cerro Largo 1–1
L Liverpool Montevideo 0–4
L Wanderers 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 12%
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
W Wanderers 2–0
L Juventud 2–0
D Penarol 0–0
W Progreso 0–2
D Racing Montevideo 2–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
Attack
22
Defence
56
Form
38
Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado
Attack
23
Defence
82
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Defensor Sporting
0
Draw
1
Deportivo Maldonado
15 Mar 2026 Primera División 0–1

Primera: Torneo Intermedio - A

# Team G Pts
1 Penarol Penarol 7 16
2 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 7 11
3 Racing Montevideo Racing Montevideo 7 10
4 Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 7 9
5 Central Espanol Central Espanol 7 9
6 Cerro Cerro 7 9
7 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 7 6
8 Boston River Boston River 7 5

What's at stake · Primera: Torneo Intermedio - A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Defensor Sporting Deportivo Maldonado
Current #7 #1
→ Defensor Sporting #6 #1
→ Draw #7 #1
→ Deportivo Maldonado #7 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The model gives Defensor Sporting a 28% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 41% for an Deportivo Maldonado win.
How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Expected goals: Defensor Sporting 0.8, Deportivo Maldonado 1.1 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 65%.
What is the most likely score in Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.23%.