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Denbigh Town - Porthmadog

FAW Championship August 21, 2026 20:45
Denbigh Town
#10 · 3 pts
vs
Porthmadog
#3 · 7 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.95%
Win
Denbigh Town
32.06%
Draw
36.99%
Win
Porthmadog
0.8
Expected xG
1.44

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.38%)
1X2 Result
1 31%
X 32%
2 37%
Double Chance
1X 63%
X2 69%
12 68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 55%
✓ 73.3% hit rate (15 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Porthmadog a 36% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Denbigh Town. Expected goals are 0.8 for Denbigh Town and 1.4 for Porthmadog (total 2.2), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.38% probability.

Season Stats

Denbigh Town
5W 1D 9L
Porthmadog
2W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
1.7
2.1
Conceded
0.7
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
33%
53%
BTTS
67%
13%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
45%
O 3.5
85%
BTTS
Denbigh Town
4W 2D 4L · at home
Porthmadog
1W 1D 0L · away
1.5
gls/g
2.0
1.5
Conceded
1.0
40%
Win %
50%
60%
Win or Draw
100%
70%
O 1.5
100%
60%
O 2.5
50%
40%
O 3.5
50%
70%
BTTS
100%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
10%
Failed to Score
0%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Denbigh Town Porthmadog →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.7% 15.3% 11.0% 5.2% 1.9% 0.5%
1 8.6% 12.3% 8.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
2 3.4% 4.9% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% —
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Denbigh Town Denbigh Town
L Ruthin Town 2–1
L Bangor City 1876 FC 1–2
W Buckley Town 2–4
L Caersws 6–0
W Penrhyncoch 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Porthmadog Porthmadog
D Buckley Town 1–1
W Rhyl 1–0
W Penrhyncoch 1–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Denbigh Town Denbigh Town
Attack
38
Defence
50
Form
45
Porthmadog Porthmadog
Attack
41
Defence
83
Form
65
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

North

# Team G Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers Brickfield Rangers 3 9
2 Newtown AFC Newtown AFC 3 7
3 Porthmadog Porthmadog 3 7
4 Bangor City 1876 FC Bangor City 1876 FC 3 6
5 Bala Town Bala Town 2 6
6 Guilsfield Guilsfield 3 5
7 Rhyl Rhyl 3 4
8 Mold Alexandra Mold Alexandra 3 4
9 Caersws Caersws 3 4
10 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 3 3
11 Ruthin Town Ruthin Town 3 3
12 Holyhead Hotspur Holyhead Hotspur 3 3
13 Llanuwchllyn Llanuwchllyn 3 3
14 Buckley Town Buckley Town 3 1
15 Penrhyncoch Penrhyncoch 2 0
16 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic 3 0

What's at stake · North

Top 2 advance to the next round

Denbigh Town Porthmadog
Current #10 #3
→ Denbigh Town #6 #3
→ Draw #9 #2
→ Porthmadog #10 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
The model gives Denbigh Town a 30% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 36% for an Porthmadog win.
How many goals are expected in Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
Expected goals: Denbigh Town 0.8, Porthmadog 1.4 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Denbigh Town vs Porthmadog?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.38%.