57'
(ast. E. Bello)
A. Morelos
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico Nacional a 36% win probability (draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 35%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico Nacional. In 2 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico Nacional.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
5
0.38
Actual xG
0.44
4
Saves
5
48%
Possession
52%
8
Corners
2
13
Tackles
12
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
1
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
17'
S. Garcia
A. Angulo
29'
A. Angulo
32'
A. Angulo
32'
E. Lopez
37'
B. Rovira
37'
A. Parra Osorio
/ C. Trujillo
40'
46'
S. Velasquez
/
S. Garcia
57'
ast. E. Bello ·
A. Morelos⚽
J. P. Torres Patino
/ J. Mosquera
62'
65'
J. Zapata
/
M. Uribe
65'
A. Sarmiento
/
E. Bello
74'
E. Cardona
/
J. Campuzano
74'
C. Arango
/
A. Morelos
L. Sandoval
/ N. Sanchez
78'
K. Florez
/ Y. Moreno
78'
90'+4
C. Arango
Pre-match prediction
35.9%
Deportes
27.15%
X
36.95%
Atletico ←
we assigned to the actual result (Atletico Nacional)
36.95%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.17
0.38
-0.79
1.22
0.44
-0.78
xG dominance was balanced (0.38 – 0.44).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Neto Volpi
G
Neto Volpi
G
17
C. Arrieta
D
C. Arrieta
D
2
A. Angulo
32'
D
A. Angulo
32'
D
3
J. Angulo
D
J. Angulo
D
28
E. López
D
E. López
D
80
Brayan Rovira
M
Brayan Rovira
M
32
S. Guzmán
M
S. Guzmán
M
18
K. Flórez
78'
M
K. Flórez
78'
M
10
J. Torres
62'
M
J. Torres
62'
M
24
A. Parra
40'
M
A. Parra
40'
M
9
L. Sandoval
78'
F
L. Sandoval
78'
F
Bench
6
C. Trujillo
50'
M
C. Trujillo
50'
M
8
E. Valencia
F
E. Valencia
F
20
J. Hernández
D
J. Hernández
D
33
J. Mosquera
28'
D
J. Mosquera
28'
D
15
Juan Pablo Nieto
M
Juan Pablo Nieto
M
22
Luis Marquinez
G
Luis Marquinez
G
29
Neifer Sanchez
12'
F
Neifer Sanchez
12'
F
30
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
D
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
12'
M
Yoimar Moreno
12'
M
1
David Ospina
G
David Ospina
G
4
César Haydar
D
César Haydar
D
16
William Tesillo
D
William Tesillo
D
28
Simon Garcia
45'
D
Simon Garcia
45'
D
6
A. Román
D
A. Román
D
8
Matheus Uribe
65'
M
Matheus Uribe
65'
M
21
J. Campuzano
74'
M
J. Campuzano
74'
M
18
E. Bello
1 👟
65'
M
E. Bello
1 👟
65'
M
19
J. Rengifo
M
J. Rengifo
M
13
Nicolás Rodríguez
M
Nicolás Rodríguez
M
9
A. Morelos
1 ⚽
75'
F
A. Morelos
1 ⚽
75'
F
Bench
14
Andres Marin
D
Andres Marin
D
29
A. Sarmiento
25'
F
A. Sarmiento
25'
F
17
Cristian Arango
19'
F
Cristian Arango
19'
F
5
Cristian Uribe
D
Cristian Uribe
D
10
E. Cardona
16'
M
E. Cardona
16'
M
15
Harlen Castillo
G
Harlen Castillo
G
80
Juan Zapata
25'
M
Juan Zapata
25'
M
7
M. Moreno
F
M. Moreno
F
33
Samuel Velásquez
45'
M
Samuel Velásquez
45'
M
Best on the pitch
David Ospina
G · Atletico
8.90
· 35 pass
S. Guzmán
M · Deportes
7.90
· 66 pass
William Tesillo
D · Atletico
7.90
· 69 pass
A. Morelos
F · Atletico
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 19 pass
César Haydar
D · Atletico
7.50
· 58 pass
Juan Zapata
M · Atletico
7.20
· 21 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Volpi | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 14% | — | — | — |
| C. Arrieta | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Angulo | D | 32 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| J. Angulo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 52 | 43% | 2 | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 52 | 40% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Brayan Rovira | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 34% | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Guzmán | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 66 | 54% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Flórez | M | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Torres | M | 62 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. Parra | M | 40 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 78 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| C. Trujillo | M | 50 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | D | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Neifer Sanchez | F | 12 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Yoimar Moreno | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
Atletico Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ospina | G | 90 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| César Haydar | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 58 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| William Tesillo | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 69 | 62% | 1 | — | — |
| Simon Garcia | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Román | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Matheus Uribe | M | 65 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Campuzano | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Bello | M | 65 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Rengifo | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Nicolás Rodríguez | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Morelos | F | 75 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| A. Sarmiento | F | 25 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Cristian Arango | F | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | 1 |
| E. Cardona | M | 16 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Juan Zapata | M | 25 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Velásquez | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 0–1 Atletico Nacional.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Atletico Nacional?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 27% to a draw, and 36% to an Atletico Nacional win.