Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 07, 2026 04:00
✓Model correct — prediction Deportes Tolima
L. Sandoval
45'+7
(pen.)
J. Mosquera
(ast. J. Gonzalez)
78'
J. Gonzalez
(ast. L. Sandoval)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 72% win probability (draw 14%, Club Nacional 12%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 3–0 Club Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Club Nacional.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.36
Actual xG
0.31
2
Saves
6
62%
Possession
38%
10
Corners
3
14
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. P. Torres Patino
(missed pen.)
45'+1
⚽L. Sandoval
(pen.)
45'+7
L. Sandoval
45'+8
B. Rovira
45'+9
E. Lopez
45'+10
45'+10
S. Coates
46'
M. Silvera
/
N. Lodeiro
64'
A. dos Santos
70'
J. De Los Santos
/
B. Barcia
70'
T. Veron
/
G. Carneiro
B. Rovira
/ C. Trujillo
74'
A. Parra Osorio
/ J. Mosquera
74'
E. Lopez
/ J. Gonzalez
74'
⚽J. Mosquera
· ast. J. Gonzalez
78'
K. Florez
/ J. Valencia
81'
J. P. Torres Patino
/ J. Nieto
81'
88'
L. Gonzalez
/
L. Boggio
⚽J. Gonzalez
· ast. L. Sandoval
89'
Pre-match prediction
72.32%
Deportes ←
14.86%
X
12.82%
Club
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Deportes Tolima)
72.32%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.66
3.36
+0.71
0.97
0.31
-0.66
Deportes Tolima dominated by xG (3.36 vs 0.31).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
17
Cristian Arrieta
D
Cristian Arrieta
D
2
Anderson Angulo
D
Anderson Angulo
D
3
Jan Ángulo
D
Jan Ángulo
D
18
Kelvin Florez
81'
M
Kelvin Florez
81'
M
32
Sebastián Guzmán
M
Sebastián Guzmán
M
80
Brayan Rovira
74'
M
Brayan Rovira
74'
M
28
Edwar López
74'
M
Edwar López
74'
M
10
J. Torres
81'
F
J. Torres
81'
F
9
L. Sandoval
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
L. Sandoval
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
24
Adrián Parra
74'
F
Adrián Parra
74'
F
Bench
6
Cristian Trujillo
16'
M
Cristian Trujillo
16'
M
4
Daniel Pedrozo
D
Daniel Pedrozo
D
8
Ever Valencia
F
Ever Valencia
F
11
Jader Valencia
9'
F
Jader Valencia
9'
F
7
Jersson González
1 ⚽
1 👟
16'
F
Jersson González
1 ⚽
1 👟
16'
F
20
J. Hernández
D
J. Hernández
D
33
Jherson Mosquera
1 ⚽
16'
D
Jherson Mosquera
1 ⚽
16'
D
15
Juan Pablo Nieto
9'
M
Juan Pablo Nieto
9'
M
30
Shean Barbosa
D
Shean Barbosa
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
1
Luis Mejía
G
Luis Mejía
G
21
D
2
Agustín Rogel
D
Agustín Rogel
D
4
Sebastián Coates
D
Sebastián Coates
D
13
Emiliano Ancheta
D
Emiliano Ancheta
D
6
Luciano Boggio
88'
M
Luciano Boggio
88'
M
10
M
20
Gonzalo Carneiro
70'
M
Gonzalo Carneiro
70'
M
14
Nicolás Lodeiro
45'
M
Nicolás Lodeiro
45'
M
30
Baltasar Barcia
70'
M
Baltasar Barcia
70'
M
9
Maximiliano Gómez
F
Maximiliano Gómez
F
Bench
25
Ignacio Suárez
G
19
Juan De los Santos
20'
F
Juan De los Santos
20'
F
39
Luciano Gonzalez
2'
M
Luciano Gonzalez
2'
M
8
Mauricio Vera
M
11
Maximiliano Silvera
45'
F
Maximiliano Silvera
45'
F
77
Nicolás Rodríguez
D
Nicolás Rodríguez
D
15
Paolo Calione
D
Paolo Calione
D
18
Pável Núñez
F
Pável Núñez
F
27
Tomas Veron Lupi
20'
F
Tomas Veron Lupi
20'
F
32
Tomás Viera
D
Tomás Viera
D
Best on the pitch
Luis Mejía
G · Club
8.30
· 21 pass
L. Sandoval
F · Deportes
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 31 pass
Jersson González
F · Deportes
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 4 pass
Jherson Mosquera
D · Deportes
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
Cristian Arrieta
D · Deportes
7.30
1 shots
· 44 pass
Jan Ángulo
D · Deportes
7.30
· 40 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| Cristian Arrieta | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 39% | 5 | — | — |
| Anderson Angulo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Jan Ángulo | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Kelvin Florez | M | 81 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Guzmán | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 75 | 65% | 2 | — | — |
| Brayan Rovira | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 51 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Edwar López | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Torres | F | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 46 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| Adrián Parra | F | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Cristian Trujillo | M | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Jader Valencia | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jersson González | F | 16 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Jherson Mosquera | D | 16 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Nieto | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
Club Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Mejía | G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Agustín Rogel | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Coates | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Emiliano Ancheta | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 19% | 5 | — | — |
| Luciano Boggio | M | 88 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Gonzalo Carneiro | M | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Lodeiro | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| Baltasar Barcia | M | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Maximiliano Gómez | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Juan De los Santos | F | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Gonzalez | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Silvera | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Tomas Veron Lupi | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 3–0 Club Nacional.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
The model assigned 72% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 14% to a draw, and 12% to an Club Nacional win.