Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 4
May 07, 2026 04:00
✓Model correct — prediction Deportes Tolima
L. Sandoval
45'+7
(pen.)
J. Mosquera
(ast. J. Gonzalez)
78'
J. Gonzalez
(ast. L. Sandoval)
89'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 72% win probability (draw 14%, Club Nacional 12%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 3–0 Club Nacional. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Club Nacional.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
5
9
Shots on target
2
3.36
Actual xG
0.31
2
Saves
6
62%
Possession
38%
10
Corners
3
14
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. P. Torres Patino
(missed pen.)
45'+1
⚽L. Sandoval
(pen.)
45'+7
L. Sandoval
45'+8
B. Rovira
45'+9
E. Lopez
45'+10
45'+10
S. Coates
46'
M. Silvera
/
N. Lodeiro
64'
A. dos Santos
70'
J. De Los Santos
/
B. Barcia
70'
T. Veron
/
G. Carneiro
B. Rovira
/ C. Trujillo
74'
A. Parra Osorio
/ J. Mosquera
74'
E. Lopez
/ J. Gonzalez
74'
⚽J. Mosquera
· ast. J. Gonzalez
78'
K. Florez
/ J. Valencia
81'
J. P. Torres Patino
/ J. Nieto
81'
88'
L. Gonzalez
/
L. Boggio
⚽J. Gonzalez
· ast. L. Sandoval
89'
Pre-match prediction
72.32%
Deportes ←
14.86%
X
12.82%
Club
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Deportes Tolima)
72.32%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.66
3.36
+0.71
0.97
0.31
-0.66
Deportes Tolima dominated by xG (3.36 vs 0.31).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
17
C. Arrieta
D
C. Arrieta
D
2
A. Angulo
D
A. Angulo
D
3
J. Angulo
D
J. Angulo
D
18
K. Flórez
81'
M
K. Flórez
81'
M
32
S. Guzmán
M
S. Guzmán
M
80
B. Rovira
74'
M
B. Rovira
74'
M
28
E. López
74'
M
E. López
74'
M
10
J. Torres
81'
F
J. Torres
81'
F
9
L. Sandoval
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
L. Sandoval
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
24
A. Parra
74'
F
A. Parra
74'
F
Bench
6
C. Trujillo
16'
M
C. Trujillo
16'
M
4
D. Pedrozo
D
D. Pedrozo
D
8
E. Valencia
F
E. Valencia
F
7
J. González
1 ⚽
1 👟
16'
F
J. González
1 ⚽
1 👟
16'
F
20
J. Hernández
D
J. Hernández
D
33
J. Mosquera
1 ⚽
16'
D
J. Mosquera
1 ⚽
16'
D
15
J. Nieto
9'
M
J. Nieto
9'
M
11
J. Valencia
9'
F
J. Valencia
9'
F
30
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
D
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
1
Luis Mejía
G
21
D
2
Agustín Rogel
D
4
S. Coates
D
S. Coates
D
13
Emiliano Ancheta
D
6
Luciano Boggio
88'
M
10
M
20
Gonzalo Carneiro
70'
M
Gonzalo Carneiro
70'
M
14
Nicolás Lodeiro
45'
M
30
Baltasar Barcia
70'
M
9
Maximiliano Gómez
F
Bench
25
Ignacio Suárez
G
19
Juan De los Santos
20'
F
39
Luciano González
2'
M
8
Mauricio Vera
M
11
Maximiliano Silvera
45'
F
77
Nicolás Rodríguez
D
18
Pável Núñez
F
15
P. Calione
D
P. Calione
D
27
Tomas Veron Lupi
20'
F
32
Tomás Viera
D
Best on the pitch
Luis Mejía
G · Club
8.30
· 21 pass
L. Sandoval
F · Deportes
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 31 pass
J. González
F · Deportes
8.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 4 pass
J. Mosquera
D · Deportes
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
C. Arrieta
D · Deportes
7.30
1 shots
· 44 pass
J. Angulo
D · Deportes
7.30
· 40 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 14% | — | — | — | |
| C. Arrieta | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 39% | 5 | — | — |
| A. Angulo | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 29% | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 40 | 36% | — | — | — |
| K. Flórez | M | 81 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| S. Guzmán | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 75 | 65% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Rovira | M | 74 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 51 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. López | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Torres | F | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | 4 | 46 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Parra | F | 74 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Trujillo | M | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| J. González | F | 16 | 8.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | D | 16 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Nieto | M | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Valencia | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 3% | — | — | — |
Club Nacional — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Mejía | G | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 12% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Agustín Rogel | D | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 13% | — | — | — |
| S. Coates | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Emiliano Ancheta | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 19% | 5 | — | — |
| Luciano Boggio | M | 88 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Gonzalo Carneiro | M | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Lodeiro | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| Baltasar Barcia | M | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Maximiliano Gómez | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Juan De los Santos | F | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Luciano González | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Silvera | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Tomas Veron Lupi | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 3–0 Club Nacional.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Club Nacional?
The model assigned 72% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 14% to a draw, and 12% to an Club Nacional win.