✓Model correct — prediction Deportes Tolima
L. Sandoval
41'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 59% win probability (draw 21%, Deportivo Pasto 18%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. In 2 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Deportivo Pasto.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
5
0.80
Actual xG
0.32
3
Saves
4
63%
Possession
37%
6
Corners
6
21
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
39'
A. Estupinan
⚽L. Sandoval
41'
45'+1
Y. Goez
C. Arrieta
/ D. Pedrozo
46'
47'
M. Garavito
K. Florez
/ J. Mosquera
58'
A. Parra Osorio
/ J. Gonzalez
58'
64'
S. Cordoba
/
J. Perlaza
S. Guzman
/ J. Nieto
71'
75'
D. Chavez
/
H. Mancilla
75'
J. Micolta Piedahita
/
M. Garavito
75'
M. Gil
/
A. Estupinan
J. P. Torres Patino
/ E. Valencia
80'
89'
W. Morelo
/
Y. Goez
Pre-match prediction
59.77%
Deportes ←
21.68%
X
18.55%
Deportivo
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Deportes Tolima)
59.77%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.85
0.80
-1.05
0.80
0.32
-0.48
Deportes Tolima dominated by xG (0.80 vs 0.32).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Neto Volpi
G
Neto Volpi
G
17
C. Arrieta
45'
D
C. Arrieta
45'
D
2
A. Angulo
D
A. Angulo
D
3
J. Angulo
D
J. Angulo
D
28
E. López
D
E. López
D
18
K. Flórez
58'
M
K. Flórez
58'
M
32
S. Guzmán
71'
M
S. Guzmán
71'
M
80
B. Rovira
M
B. Rovira
M
24
A. Parra
58'
M
A. Parra
58'
M
9
L. Sandoval
1 ⚽
F
L. Sandoval
1 ⚽
F
10
J. Torres
80'
F
J. Torres
80'
F
Bench
4
D. Pedrozo
45'
D
D. Pedrozo
45'
D
8
E. Valencia
10'
F
E. Valencia
10'
F
7
J. González
32'
F
J. González
32'
F
33
J. Mosquera
32'
D
J. Mosquera
32'
D
15
J. Nieto
19'
M
J. Nieto
19'
M
19
Joven Santiago
F
Joven Santiago
F
22
L. Marquinez
G
L. Marquinez
G
30
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
D
S. P. Barbosa Gomez
D
31
Yoimar Moreno
M
Yoimar Moreno
M
12
G. Banguera
G
G. Banguera
G
21
E. Velasco
D
E. Velasco
D
5
N. Gil
D
N. Gil
D
8
E. Serje
D
E. Serje
D
33
M. Garavito
75'
D
M. Garavito
75'
D
27
H. Goyes
M
H. Goyes
M
23
Y. Góez
89'
M
Y. Góez
89'
M
6
J. Caicedo
M
J. Caicedo
M
15
H. Mancilla
75'
M
H. Mancilla
75'
M
7
Jonathan Perlaza
64'
F
Jonathan Perlaza
64'
F
11
A. Estupiñán
75'
F
A. Estupiñán
75'
F
Bench
10
D. Chávez
15'
M
D. Chávez
15'
M
13
F. Martinez
M
F. Martinez
M
1
Iago Herrerín
G
Iago Herrerín
G
18
J. Micolta
15'
M
J. Micolta
15'
M
17
Jose Bernal
M
Jose Bernal
M
16
M. Gil
15'
M
M. Gil
15'
M
32
M. Pisano
M
M. Pisano
M
29
Santiago Córdoba
26'
F
Santiago Córdoba
26'
F
19
Wilson Morelo
1'
F
Wilson Morelo
1'
F
Best on the pitch
Neto Volpi
G · Deportes
7.90
· 16 pass
A. Angulo
D · Deportes
7.70
· 63 pass
B. Rovira
M · Deportes
7.60
1 shots
· 69 pass
S. Guzmán
M · Deportes
7.50
· 52 pass
G. Banguera
G · Deportivo
7.30
· 21 pass
J. Angulo
D · Deportes
7.30
· 79 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Volpi | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| C. Arrieta | D | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 40 | 39% | — | — | — |
| A. Angulo | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 63 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Angulo | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 79 | 61% | — | — | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 29% | 6 | — | — |
| K. Flórez | M | 58 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | 5 | — | — |
| S. Guzmán | M | 71 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 52 | 50% | — | — | — |
| B. Rovira | M | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 59% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Parra | M | 58 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 3% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Sandoval | F | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. Torres | F | 80 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Pedrozo | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 25% | — | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. González | F | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Mosquera | D | 32 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Nieto | M | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
Deportivo Pasto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Banguera | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| E. Velasco | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| N. Gil | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Serje | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Garavito | D | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| H. Goyes | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | 4 | — | — |
| Y. Góez | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Caicedo | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 29% | 4 | — | — |
| H. Mancilla | M | 75 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Perlaza | F | 64 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Estupiñán | F | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Chávez | M | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| J. Micolta | M | 15 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gil | M | 15 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Córdoba | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Wilson Morelo | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Deportivo Pasto win.