✗Model wrong — prediction Deportes Tolima, result Deportivo Pasto wins
33'
(ast. F. Torijano)
E. C. Serje Orozco
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Deportes Tolima a 59% win probability (draw 26%, Deportivo Pasto 13%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 0–1 Deportivo Pasto. In 3 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Deportivo Pasto.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
2
0.94
Actual xG
0.33
1
Saves
5
72%
Possession
28%
9
Corners
1
8
Tackles
13
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
J. Hernandez
31'
L. Sandoval
31'
33'
ast. F. Torijano ·
E. C. Serje Orozco⚽
H. E. Martinez Yepez
43'
46'
J. Micolta Piedahita
/
D. Chavez
J. Mera
51'
H. E. Martinez Yepez
/ J. Hurtado
56'
E. Valencia
/ L. Sanchez
56'
68'
P. Preciado
/
M. Gil
E. Lopez
/ S. P. Barbosa Gomez
68'
74'
J. Mendez
/
J. Perlaza
L. Sanchez
74'
75'
M. Garavito
75'
N. Gil
A. Parra Osorio
/ K. Florez
79'
J. Hernandez
/ J. Valencia
79'
80'
M. S. Jimenez
/
M. Garavito
86'
H. Mancilla
90'+1
J. Micolta Piedahita
Pre-match prediction
59.51%
Deportes
26.61%
X
13.88%
Deportivo ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Deportivo Pasto)
13.88%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.31
0.94
-0.37
0.46
0.33
-0.13
Deportes Tolima dominated by xG (0.94 vs 0.33).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
Neto Volpi
89'
G
Neto Volpi
89'
G
20
Junior Hernández
79'
D
Junior Hernández
79'
D
5
Juan Mera
89'
D
Juan Mera
89'
D
71
Yordan Osorio
89'
D
Yordan Osorio
89'
D
33
Jherson Mosquera
89'
D
Jherson Mosquera
89'
D
14
Homer Martinez
56'
M
Homer Martinez
56'
M
80
Brayan Rovira
89'
M
Brayan Rovira
89'
M
28
Edwar López
68'
M
Edwar López
68'
M
9
Luis Sandoval
89'
M
Luis Sandoval
89'
M
8
Ever Valencia
56'
M
Ever Valencia
56'
M
24
Adrián Parra
79'
F
Adrián Parra
79'
F
Bench
11
Jader Valencia
10'
F
Jader Valencia
10'
F
3
Jan Ángulo
D
Jan Ángulo
D
7
Jorge Hurtado
33'
F
Jorge Hurtado
33'
F
18
K. Flórez
10'
F
K. Flórez
10'
F
10
Luis Sánchez
33'
M
Luis Sánchez
33'
M
13
Miguel Ortega
G
Miguel Ortega
G
30
Shean Barbosa
21'
D
Shean Barbosa
21'
D
12
Geovanni Banguera
89'
G
Geovanni Banguera
89'
G
3
Joyce Ossa
89'
D
Joyce Ossa
89'
D
5
Nicolas Gil Uribe
89'
D
Nicolas Gil Uribe
89'
D
2
Fainer Torijano
1 👟
89'
D
Fainer Torijano
1 👟
89'
D
33
Mateo Garavito
81'
D
Mateo Garavito
81'
D
7
Jonathan Perlaza
74'
M
Jonathan Perlaza
74'
M
15
Harrinson Mancilla
89'
M
Harrinson Mancilla
89'
M
25
Franco Leys
89'
M
Franco Leys
89'
M
8
Enrique Serje
1 ⚽
89'
M
Enrique Serje
1 ⚽
89'
M
10
Diego Chávez
45'
M
Diego Chávez
45'
M
16
Mayer Gil
68'
F
Mayer Gil
68'
F
Bench
17
John Méndez
15'
F
John Méndez
15'
F
18
Joider Micolta
44'
M
Joider Micolta
44'
M
36
Julián Quiñones
D
Julián Quiñones
D
24
Kevin Santacruz
M
Kevin Santacruz
M
13
Luis Marquínez
G
Luis Marquínez
G
32
Matías Pisano
M
Matías Pisano
M
19
Patrick Preciado
21'
F
Patrick Preciado
21'
F
29
Santiago Córdoba
F
Santiago Córdoba
F
6
Santiago Jiménez
8'
D
Santiago Jiménez
8'
D
Best on the pitch
Enrique Serje
M · Deportivo
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 17 pass
Nicolas Gil Uribe
D · Deportivo
7.70
· 16 pass
Juan Mera
D · Deportes
7.20
· 63 pass
Brayan Rovira
M · Deportes
7.20
3 shots
· 64 pass
Joyce Ossa
D · Deportivo
7.20
1 shots
· 21 pass
Yordan Osorio
D · Deportes
7.00
· 76 pass
Deportes Tolima — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Volpi | G | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Junior Hernández | D | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 52 | 38% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Mera | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 63 | 55% | — | 1 | — |
| Yordan Osorio | D | 89 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 76 | 72% | 1 | — | — |
| Jherson Mosquera | D | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Homer Martinez | M | 56 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Brayan Rovira | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 64 | 59% | 2 | — | — |
| Edwar López | M | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Luis Sandoval | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 25% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ever Valencia | M | 56 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Adrián Parra | F | 79 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Jader Valencia | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Hurtado | F | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| K. Flórez | F | 10 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Luis Sánchez | M | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Shean Barbosa | D | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
Deportivo Pasto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geovanni Banguera | G | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Joyce Ossa | D | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolas Gil Uribe | D | 89 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| Fainer Torijano | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Garavito | D | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 8% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Perlaza | M | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Harrinson Mancilla | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Franco Leys | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Enrique Serje | M | 89 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 17 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| Diego Chávez | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Mayer Gil | F | 68 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| John Méndez | F | 15 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Joider Micolta | M | 44 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | 2 | — | — |
| Patrick Preciado | F | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Jiménez | D | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 0–1 Deportivo Pasto.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 26% to a draw, and 13% to an Deportivo Pasto win.