Copa Libertadores
· Round of 16
August 19, 2026 02:30
11'
(ast. E. Pata)
A. Rodriguez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Independiente del Valle a 43% win probability (draw 26%, Deportes Tolima 29%). The final result was Deportes Tolima 0–1 Independiente del Valle. In 1 previous meetings, Deportes Tolima have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Independiente del Valle.
Match statistics
5
Shots on target
2
1.06
Actual xG
0.88
68%
Possession
32%
5
Corners
3
Match Events
11'
ast. E. Pata ·
A. Rodriguez⚽
B. Rovira
/ L. Sanchez
19'
J. Hernandez
31'
L. Sanchez
34'
K. Florez
/ E. Lopez
46'
47'
R. Schunke
52'
M. Carabajal
70'
J. Angulo
/
E. Pata
70'
R. Briones
/
J. Sornoza
J. Hurtado
/ J. Valencia
72'
83'
J. Mendez
/
H. Quintana
A. Parra Osorio
/ S. Aguayo
83'
90'
A. Velasco
/
A. Rodriguez
90'
D. Reasco
/
C. Gonzalez
Pre-match prediction
29.28%
Deportes
26.84%
X
43.88%
Independiente ←
we assigned to the actual result (Independiente del Valle)
43.88%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.61
1.06
-0.55
2.96
0.88
-2.08
xG dominance was balanced (1.06 – 0.88).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
The final score was Deportes Tolima 0–1 Independiente del Valle.
What did the model predict before Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
The model assigned 29% probability to a Deportes Tolima win, 26% to a draw, and 43% to an Independiente del Valle win.