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Deportes Tolima - Independiente del Valle

Copa Libertadores August 11, 2026 22:00
Deportes Tolima
#2 · 8 pts
vs
Independiente del Valle
#1 · 13 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
27.72%
Win
Deportes Tolima
22.06%
Draw
50.23%
Win
Independiente del Valle
1.78
Expected xG
3.34

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (8.41%)
1X2 Result ✓ 70.6% hit rate (17 picks)
1 28%
X 22%
2 50%
Double Chance
1X 50%
X2 72%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 73%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Independiente del Valle a 50% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Deportes Tolima. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportes Tolima and 3.3 for Independiente del Valle (total 5.1), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 8.41% probability.

Season Stats

Deportes Tolima
4W 2D 4L
Independiente del Valle
4W 1D 1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.8
0.8
Conceded
1.0
4.5
Shots OT
7.3
4.3
Corners
7.5
59%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
67%
40%
O 2.5
50%
10%
BTTS
50%
60%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in Copa Libertadores. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
17%
BTTS
Deportes Tolima
3W 1D 1L · at home
Independiente del Valle
1W 1D 1L · away
1.6
gls/g
1.0
0.2
Conceded
1.3
60%
Win %
33%
80%
Win or Draw
67%
60%
O 1.5
67%
40%
O 2.5
33%
0%
O 3.5
33%
0%
BTTS
33%
80%
Clean Sht
33%
40%
Failed to Score
67%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Deportes Tolima Independiente del Valle →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.6% 2.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 2.1%
1 1.1% 3.6% 6.0% 6.6% 5.5% 3.7%
2 1.0% 3.2% 5.3% 5.9% 4.9% 3.3%
3 0.6% 1.9% 3.1% 3.5% 2.9% 1.9%
4 0.2% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 0.9%
5 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

Recent form

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
D Universitario 0–0
L Coquimbo Unido 3–0
W Club Nacional 3–0
W Coquimbo Unido 3–0
L Club Nacional 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 43%
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
W Rosario Central 1–0
W Libertad Asuncion 4–1
L UCV 2–0
W Libertad Asuncion 2–3
W UCV 3–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 31%

Playing profile

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
Attack
35
Defence
68
Form
55
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
Attack
76
Defence
82
Form
86
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives Deportes Tolima a 27% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 50% for an Independiente del Valle win.
How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
Expected goals: Deportes Tolima 1.8, Independiente del Valle 3.3 (total 5.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.41%.